Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy49 ratings
Bullish3673.5%
Neutral1020.4%
Bearish36.1%
ConocoPhillips · COP · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
ConocoPhillips Beats Q1 Estimates on Strong Free Cash Flow, Raises Capex for Permian
ConocoPhillips posted a convincing Q1 2026 beat -- $1.89 EPS versus $1.72 consensus and $16.1B revenue versus $15.6B estimate -- backed by $2.4B in free cash flow and $5.4B operating cash flow. The results validate the low-cost asset base across Alaska, the Lower 48, and the Permian, while the modestly higher capex ($12.0-12.5B) funds incremental Permian activity without disrupting full-year production or cost guidance. LNG optionality is expanding through Port Arthur (targeting 2027) and a new Equatorial Guinea tolling agreement extending facility life into the 2030s. Despite the operational strength, shares underperformed post-earnings with a -2.9% abnormal move and -9.4% subsequent drift, suggesting the market is discounting macro risk rather than rewarding the beat. With a 45% CFO shareholder return commitment and a $7B FCF inflection target by 2029, the case rests on whether…
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$140.81B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.89
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+9.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$16.05B
Consensus $15.62B
Revenue surprise
+2.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$137.35Current
$70Low
$128.02Average
$189High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Johnson Rice | Hold | Accumulate | Downgrade | Dec 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 8, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2023 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2023 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Apr 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Capital One | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 4, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2022 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 9, 2020 |
| Capital One Financial | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 11, 2020 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 15, 2020 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 13, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 17, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2018 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 19, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 12, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 15, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 29, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 4, 2015 |
| Simmons & Co. | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jun 11, 2014 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 28, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Aug 13, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $137.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $133.86 | +22.3% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $151 | $132.28 | +9.9% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $153 | $131.22 | +11.4% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $126.78 | +9.2% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $125.92 | +11.4% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $123.03 | +17.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $147 | $117.52 | +7.0% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $116.76 | +37.6% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $116.5 | +12.9% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $110.48 | +4.1% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $146 | $103.58 | +6.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $105.96 | +6.3% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $107.74 | -5.4% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $107.74 | -5.4% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $116.57 | +9.2% | May 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $155 | $120.46 | +12.9% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $120.51 | +11.4% | May 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $122.74 | -6.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $125.78 | -1.0% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $121.13 | +5.6% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $183 | $123.47 | +33.2% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $125.22 | -7.5% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $149 | $133.8 | +8.5% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $107.86 | -5.4% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $133 | $107.49 | -3.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $104.98 | -16.3% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $104.98 | -19.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $105.08 | -18.5% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $98.15 | -16.3% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $98.76 | -21.4% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $109 | $93.94 | -20.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $96.7 | -28.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $96.38 | -12.6% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $96.7 | -11.9% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Johnson Rice | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $93.12 | -23.6% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $115 | $87.24 | -16.3% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $131 | $86.41 | -4.6% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $86.48 | -17.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $122 | $88.52 | -11.2% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $120 | $88.78 | -12.6% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $88.48 | -14.1% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $124 | $87.64 | -9.7% | Oct 12, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $94.91 | -14.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Leo Mariani | $108 | $92.65 | -21.4% | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $119 | $93.18 | -13.4% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $100 | $95.61 | -27.2% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $89 | -14.8% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $89.76 | -1.0% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $116 | $85.82 | -15.5% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $132 | $101.56 | -3.9% | Jan 30, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $132 | $104.23 | -3.9% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $148 | $107.84 | +7.8% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $135 | $110.93 | -1.7% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $129 | $110.85 | -6.1% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $147 | $109.85 | +7.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $156 | $111.18 | +13.6% | Aug 18, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $132 | $112.27 | -3.9% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $165 | $116.48 | +20.1% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $166 | $115.25 | +20.9% | May 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $160 | $115.25 | +16.5% | May 30, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Hanold | $140 | $121.04 | +1.9% | May 15, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $160 | $129.53 | +16.5% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $157 | $128.33 | +14.3% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $149 | $132.25 | +8.5% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $139 | $123.03 | +1.2% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $133 | $119.78 | -3.2% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Hanold | $135 | $115.02 | -1.7% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $128 | $105.9 | -6.8% | Apr 17, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $151 | $112.1 | +9.9% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $111.92 | +1.9% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $117.78 | +13.6% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $157 | $110.44 | +14.3% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $151 | $115.61 | +9.9% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $129.46 | +12.9% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $150 | $126.09 | +9.2% | Nov 1, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Leo Mariani Mariani | $118 | $114.32 | -14.1% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $111.97 | -2.4% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $107.9 | +11.4% | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $104.58 | +0.5% | Aug 18, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Leo Mariani | $110 | $92.26 | -19.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $92.05 | -1.7% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $86.74 | +7.8% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $86.6 | -14.8% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $85.07 | -10.4% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $84.6 | -10.4% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $140 | $93.74 | +1.9% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $111.76 | +3.4% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $118.12 | -14.1% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Silvio Micheloto | $157 | $118.12 | +14.3% | Jun 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jeanine Wai | $132 | $111.2 | -3.9% | May 25, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $129 | $99.69 | -6.1% | May 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $107.69 | -9.7% | May 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $130 | $91.32 | -5.4% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $96.01 | +16.5% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $98.2 | -12.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $115 | $101.37 | -16.3% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jeanine Wai | $131 | $102.76 | -4.6% | Mar 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Hanold | $120 | $96.55 | -12.6% | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Silvio Micheloto | $115 | $89.63 | -16.3% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $112 | $91.33 | -18.5% | Feb 8, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Hanold | $110 | $91.87 | -19.9% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | William Janela | $100 | $91.14 | -27.2% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $115 | $91.14 | -16.3% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $108 | $91.48 | -21.4% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $96 | $86.42 | -30.1% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $101 | $86.05 | -26.5% | Jan 17, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Josh Silverstein | $97 | $69.92 | -29.4% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $117 | $71.2 | -14.8% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Societe Generale | Raphael Dubois | $77 | $72.22 | -43.9% | Nov 10, 2021 |
| MKM Partners | John Gerdes | $94 | $74.94 | -31.6% | Nov 9, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $89 | $75.12 | -35.2% | Nov 8, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $95 | $74.46 | -30.8% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $76 | $61.36 | -44.7% | Jul 1, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $88 | $61.36 | -35.9% | Jul 1, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Alastair Syme | $70 | $59.43 | -49.0% | Jun 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on COP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.9%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.4%
Up to 20 sessions
COPSPY benchmark
Follow COP with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
EPS beat the $1.72 estimate by 9.9% at $1.89, and revenue of $16.05B exceeded the $15.62B estimate by 2.8%. The company generated $2.4B in free cash flow and returned $2B to shareholders. Capex guidance was raised to $12.0-12.5B, adding $250M for an additional Permian rig and non-operated OBO spend. The Willow project reached 50% completion with full winter construction finished, and a third-party tolling agreement was signed to extend the Equatorial Guinea LNG facility into the 2030s. Despite the beat, the stock posted a -2.9% abnormal move on the session and drifted -9.4% subsequently.
Guidance delta
Capex guidance was raised to $12.0-12.5B from the prior range, adding $250M for Permian and non-operated OBO activity. Full-year production guidance was maintained. The cost-reduction program targeting $1B in run-rate savings was maintained. The 45% CFO shareholder return target was reaffirmed. Overall guidance sentiment was maintained despite heightened macro volatility from Middle East conflict.
Key takeaways
- Free cash flow of $2.4B keeps ConocoPhillips on track for its $7B FCF inflection target by 2029.
- Willow project is 50% complete with winter construction finished, de-risking the Alaska growth pillar.
- A new Equatorial Guinea LNG tolling agreement extends the facility into the 2030s, adding portfolio longevity.
- Capex was raised modestly for Permian growth without altering full-year production or cost guidance.
- The stock sold off post-earnings despite the beat, with a -2.9% abnormal move and -9.4% subsequent drift, reflecting macro rather than company-specific concerns.
Management priorities
- Complete Willow construction including summer activities and pipeline connections.
- Bring Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 online by 2027.
- Add a Permian rig and increase non-operated OBO spend in H2 2026.
- Pursue further divestitures under the $5B program and evaluate opportunistic acquisitions.
- Maintain 45% CFO return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Related earnings events
EnergySources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T20:41:49.132263+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T20:41:49.129554+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.