COP
FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips posted a convincing Q1 2026 beat -- $1.89 EPS versus $1.72 consensus and $16.1B revenue versus $15.6B estimate -- backed by $2.4B in free cash flow and $5.4B operating cash flow. The results validate the low-cost asset base across Alaska, the Lower 48, and the Permian, while the modestly higher capex ($12.0-12.5B) funds incremental Permian activity without disrupting full-year production or cost guidance. LNG optionality is expanding through Port Arthur (targeting 2027) and a new Equatorial Guinea tolling agreement extending facility life into the 2030s. Despite the operational strength, shares underperformed post-earnings with a -2.9% abnormal move and -9.4% subsequent drift, suggesting the market is discounting macro risk rather than rewarding the beat. With a 45% CFO shareholder return commitment and a $7B FCF inflection target by 2029, the case rests on whether…
EPS surprise+9.9%
Market move-1.9%
