Coinbase Global, Inc. · COIN · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents

Coinbase's earnings analysis supports a diversification thesis: emerging products and infrastructure are offsetting weaker spot activity, but the durability of that offset depends on execution, regulation, and adoption across USDC, derivatives, agentic trading, and tokenized equities.

Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services $42.37B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.51 Consensus $-0.23
EPS surprise +1189.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.22B Consensus $1.22B
Revenue surprise -0.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -10.6% Event window
SPY move -1.8% Same window
Abnormal move -8.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
COINSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis described flat revenue despite a 10% quarter-over-quarter decline in spot trading, with prediction markets and AI-agent activity providing offsets. Compared with the prior quarter, the emphasis moved toward scaling prediction markets and agentic finance, integrating Deribit, and building tokenized-equity liquidity, while regulatory and stablecoin questions remained relevant.

Guidance delta

Management's guidance sentiment was maintained; no quantitative guidance change was supplied in the analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Quarterly revenue was described as flat as lower spot trading was offset by prediction markets and AI-agent activity.
  • Management identified prediction markets, agentic trading, USDC usage, tokenized equities, and Deribit integration as key growth areas.
  • The company is prioritizing a broader exchange model spanning derivatives, stablecoins, tokenized equities, and agentic finance.
  • The prior quarter emphasized regulatory durability, Coinbase One growth, and revenue diversification beyond Bitcoin; the current analysis shifts more attention to execution and new product expansion.

Management priorities

  • Scale prediction markets and derivative offerings.
  • Expand AI-agent trading capabilities and API feedback loops.
  • Increase USDC integration across Coinbase products and Base.
  • Build liquidity in tokenized equities and develop related monetization.
  • Continue the Coinbase Pro revamp and post-quantum custody upgrades.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COIN REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $826M Q4 '23 actual $954M, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $1B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q3 '26 actual $1B, match Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $2B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold39 ratings
Bullish2153.8%
Neutral1538.5%
Bearish37.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$143.54Current
$11Low
$225.57Average
$600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainOct 29, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 26, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainOct 21, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 13, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 9, 2026
Show 34 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $143.54. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Rosenblatt SecuritiesChris Brendler$200$162.32 +39.3%Oct 29, 2026
US Tiger SecuritiesBo Pei$250$170.85 +74.2%Oct 20, 2026
Coker PalmerMark Palmer$230$171.2 +60.2%Oct 19, 2026
Compass PointEd Engel$187$172 +30.3%Oct 9, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$258$172 +79.7%Oct 9, 2026
See 171 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Coinbase Global, Inc. delivers fundamental financial infrastructure and technological solutions to the expanding cryptoeconomy, operating across both the United States and international markets. The company provides a core financial gateway for individual consumers navigating the digital asset space. For institutional clients, it manages a dynamic trading venue that ensures abundant liquidity for cryptocurrency transactions. Moreover, Coinbase supplies developers with crucial technology and services, enabling them to build innovative crypto-based applications and seamlessly integrate secure digital asset payments. Founded in 2012, the firm is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

Historical context

All COIN earnings

Financial Services peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-30T14:05:45.818904+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-30T01:23:13.979536+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-31T00:00:44.461936+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-31T00:00:44.459077+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.