Coinbase Global, Inc. · COIN · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Coinbase Q1 2026: Revenue Misses as Crypto Volumes Fall, But Market Share and Derivatives Scale

Coinbase entered FY2026 facing a sharp pullback in crypto market activity, with overall volumes down more than 20% quarter-over-quarter. The company reported $1.41 billion in revenue (down 21% year-over-year) and a net loss of $394 million, missing both consensus revenue and EPS estimates. Despite the headline miss, management emphasized that Coinbase gained crypto trading market share, scaled derivatives and prediction markets to annualized revenues of $200 million and $100 million respectively, and saw USDC holdings reach a record $19 billion. The stock initially rose 4.2% on the report but has since drifted approximately 19% lower, reflecting sustained concerns about institutional revenue weakness, fee compression, and the macro environment for crypto trading. The pending Deribit acquisition and the CLARITY Act legislation represent two major catalysts that could reshape the…

Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services $42.18B market cap
90quality score

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Coinbase Global, Inc. delivers fundamental financial infrastructure and technological solutions to the expanding cryptoeconomy, operating across both the United States and international markets. The company provides a core financial gateway for individual consumers navigating the digital asset space. For institutional clients, it manages a dynamic trading venue that ensures abundant liquidity for cryptocurrency transactions. Moreover, Coinbase supplies developers with crucial technology and services, enabling them to build innovative crypto-based applications and seamlessly integrate secure digital asset payments. Founded in 2012, the firm is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-1.49 Consensus $0
EPS surprise -2436.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.41B Consensus $1.49B
Revenue surprise -4.9% Reported versus consensus

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COIN REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $826M Q4 '23 actual $954M, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $1B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $2B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish2155.3%
Neutral1334.2%
Bearish410.5%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$160.09Current
$33Low
$244.59Average
$600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainJul 28, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 16, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 15, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainJul 13, 2026
Citizens Market Outperform Market OutperformMaintainJul 9, 2026
Barclays Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 9, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainJun 17, 2026
Show 30 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $160.09. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$235$166.12 +46.8%Jul 23, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$209$167.21 +30.6%Jul 16, 2026
Piper SandlerPatrick Moley$155$161.5 -3.2%Jul 15, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$260$159.07 +62.4%Jul 13, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$325$159.36 +103.0%Jul 9, 2026
US Tiger SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$200$167.26 +24.9%Jul 7, 2026
Coker PalmerMark Palmer$270$169.87 +68.7%Jun 17, 2026
Deutsche BankBrian Bedell$208$169.49 +29.9%Jun 17, 2026
Robert W. BairdRobert Bamberger$142$164.13 -11.3%Jun 5, 2026
B.Riley FinancialHal Goetsch$203$181.36 +26.8%Jun 1, 2026
See 141 more

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Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +4.2% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +3.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -19.4% Up to 20 sessions
COINSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Revenue fell to $1.41 billion (down 21% YoY) with a net loss of $394 million, as overall crypto trading volumes declined over 20% quarter-over-quarter. EPS came in at -$1.49 versus a consensus estimate of $0.06. Despite the top-line miss, Coinbase expanded its global crypto trading market share. Derivatives reached $200 million in annualized revenue and prediction markets $100 million. USDC holdings hit a record $19 billion with stablecoin transaction volume doubling quarter-over-quarter. Over 90% of on-chain agentic transaction volume now runs on Coinbase's Base chain, with the x402 protocol adopted by Cloudflare, AWS, Stripe, Shopify, and Google. The company announced a $50-60 million restructuring charge expected in Q2.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its expense guidance, supported by AI-driven efficiency gains in engineering and product development. No explicit revenue or earnings guidance was provided in the supplied analysis. The company signaled continued investment in the Deribit integration, the Everything Exchange expansion into non-crypto assets, and the x402 protocol ecosystem.

Key takeaways

  • Coinbase grew its global crypto trading market share despite a 20%+ decline in overall crypto volumes.
  • Derivatives and prediction markets are scaling rapidly, with annualized revenues of $200M and $100M respectively.
  • USDC holdings reached a record $19B, and stablecoin transaction volume doubled quarter-over-quarter.
  • AI-native development boosted engineering productivity, reducing costs and supporting expense guidance.
  • Regulatory progress on the CLARITY Act could provide significant clarity for stablecoin rewards and broader tokenization.

Management priorities

  • Full integration of Deribit to launch a unified crypto options platform in 2026.
  • Continued rollout of new asset classes under the Everything Exchange, including equities, commodities, and prediction markets.
  • Scaling the x402 protocol and broader agentic commerce ecosystem.
  • Further AI-native product development and cost-saving initiatives.
  • Ongoing expense reductions with a $50-60M restructuring charge expected in Q2.

Related earnings events

Financial Services

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T01:52:00.610553+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T01:52:00.607821+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.