Coinbase Global, Inc. · COIN · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Coinbase growth broadens, while Q4 expense growth raises execution risk

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional growth thesis: Coinbase is broadening demand across spot trading, derivatives, stablecoin payments and new products, but the next phase depends on execution, integration and expense control.

Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services $49.18B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.44 Consensus $1.20
EPS surprise +20.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.87B Consensus $1.77B
Revenue surprise +5.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +4.6% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +4.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -24.4% Up to 20 sessions
COINSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, Coinbase added the completed Deribit acquisition and Echo acquisition, expanded U.S. tradable assets through DEX connections, launched U.S. CFTC-regulated perpetual futures, and introduced further stablecoin-payment initiatives. The outlook now emphasizes continued revenue momentum alongside higher Q4 operating expenses.

Guidance delta

Management maintained a constructive outlook while pointing to about $100 million of higher Q4 operating expenses from headcount and acquisitions.

Key takeaways

  • Management described strong Q3 revenue growth driven by spot and derivatives volumes.
  • Deribit contributed after closing, while Echo expands crypto capital-formation services.
  • USDC holdings and payments adoption support the broader Everything Exchange strategy.
  • The Q4 outlook pairs continued revenue momentum with materially higher operating expenses.
  • The growth case remains tied to institutional demand, new products, and crypto-market activity.

Management priorities

  • Expand the Everything Exchange through DEX integrations and new asset classes
  • Scale USDC payment APIs and merchant adoption
  • Integrate Deribit options and cross-margining capabilities
  • Develop Base token and sequencer-fee monetization
  • Expand Echo capital-formation services

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COIN REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $1B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $2B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish2155.3%
Neutral1436.8%
Bearish37.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$186.41Current
$33Low
$227.01Average
$600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 28, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 16, 2026
Compass Point Neutral SellUpgradeSep 14, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainSep 9, 2026
Argus Research Hold HoldMaintainAug 26, 2026
Show 33 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $186.41. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$205$195.11 +10.0%Sep 28, 2026
Compass PointEd Engel$177$175.26 -5.0%Sep 14, 2026
Morgan StanleyMichael Cyprys$250$174.72 +34.1%Sep 10, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$219$178.94 +17.5%Sep 9, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldRamsey El-Assal$212$177.67 +13.7%Aug 31, 2026
See 163 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Coinbase Global, Inc. delivers fundamental financial infrastructure and technological solutions to the expanding cryptoeconomy, operating across both the United States and international markets. The company provides a core financial gateway for individual consumers navigating the digital asset space. For institutional clients, it manages a dynamic trading venue that ensures abundant liquidity for cryptocurrency transactions. Moreover, Coinbase supplies developers with crucial technology and services, enabling them to build innovative crypto-based applications and seamlessly integrate secure digital asset payments. Founded in 2012, the firm is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

Historical context

All COIN earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T04:16:08.184703+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T04:16:08.181857+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.