Coinbase Global, Inc. · COIN · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

Coinbase: Derivatives and USDC expansion offset softer transaction trends

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: derivatives, USDC, international expansion, and Base-related products provide growth avenues, but the case depends on execution, regulatory progress, and resilience in a volatile crypto market.

Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services $47.08B market cap
70quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $2.09
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $2.16B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -3.5% Event window
SPY move -0.1% Same window
Abnormal move -3.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +28.8% Up to 20 sessions
COINSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Coinbase’s strategic emphasis broadened beyond spot trading through the announced Deribit acquisition, continued USDC expansion, international licensing, and planned stablecoin, lending, and Base initiatives. The analysis also noted a 19% decline in transaction revenue and expected lower Q2 transaction revenue.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook: Q2 transaction revenue was expected to be lower, while stablecoin revenue growth was expected to continue.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted Q1 revenue of $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $930 million in the supplied analysis.
  • The Deribit acquisition is intended to expand Coinbase’s options and derivatives offering and was described as immediately accretive to profitability.
  • USDC growth remained a central theme, alongside international licensing and new stablecoin products.
  • The analysis also identified macro uncertainty and crypto-price volatility as ongoing headwinds.

Management priorities

  • Integrate Deribit, Spindle, and Iron Fish.
  • Expand derivatives, stablecoin payments, and Bitcoin-backed USDC lending.
  • Grow international operations through additional licensing.
  • Develop the Base ecosystem and pursue further strategic acquisitions.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COIN REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $1B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $2B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish2155.3%
Neutral1436.8%
Bearish37.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$178.45Previous close
$35Low
$235.86Average
$875High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
Barclays Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 7, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 2, 2026
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 28, 2026
Compass Point Neutral SellUpgradeSep 14, 2026
Show 33 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $178.45. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$244$185.74 +36.7%Oct 7, 2026
BarclaysBenjamin Budish$149$185.74 -16.5%Oct 7, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$200$189.29 +12.1%Oct 1, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$205$195.11 +14.9%Sep 28, 2026
Compass PointEd Engel$177$175.26 -0.8%Sep 14, 2026
See 166 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Coinbase Global, Inc. delivers fundamental financial infrastructure and technological solutions to the expanding cryptoeconomy, operating across both the United States and international markets. The company provides a core financial gateway for individual consumers navigating the digital asset space. For institutional clients, it manages a dynamic trading venue that ensures abundant liquidity for cryptocurrency transactions. Moreover, Coinbase supplies developers with crucial technology and services, enabling them to build innovative crypto-based applications and seamlessly integrate secure digital asset payments. Founded in 2012, the firm is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

Historical context

All COIN earnings

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-24T00:01:17.206701+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T08:50:43.000656+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T08:50:42.997893+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.