Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish1451.9%
Neutral1348.1%
Bearish00.0%
2 unmapped firm ratings excluded from the percentages.
CMS Energy Corporation · CMS · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
CMS Energy Beats on Q1 EPS, Reaffirms Guidance as Data Center Pipeline Builds
CMS Energy's Q1 results confirm that Michigan's accelerating data center and industrial load growth provides a multi-year earnings tailwind for a regulated utility with constructive regulatory outcomes. The 65% recovery in the electric rate case and reaffirmed guidance signal execution is on track. The central tension is between the growth opportunity--each gigawatt of new data center load could reduce average customer rates by 2% annually--and the financing burden it creates, evidenced by Moody's negative outlook and $700M in planned equity issuance. The 9 GW backlog, if converted, could drive $2-$5B of additional capex per gigawatt, fundamentally expanding the rate base. The stock trades at a discount to the analyst consensus target of $81.33, suggesting the market has not fully priced in this optionality.
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$22.97B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 263 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,619 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 82,854 miles of electric distribution overhead…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.13
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+2.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.73B
Consensus $2.46B
Revenue surprise
+11.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$72.26Current
$57Low
$75.26Average
$86High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 23, 2026 | |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 18, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 7, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 4, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 21, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 9, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 4, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 30, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 11, 2019 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 10, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 10, 2018 |
| Hilliard Lyons | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 15, 2018 | |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 4, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 5, 2016 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 23, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $72.26. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $74.37 | +16.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $86 | $73.65 | +19.0% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $74.03 | +7.9% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $75.75 | +12.1% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $83 | $71.31 | +14.9% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $81 | $70.22 | +12.1% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $74 | $70.22 | +2.4% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $73.46 | +6.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $71.64 | +14.9% | May 18, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $72.97 | +13.5% | May 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $77.04 | +10.7% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $78.11 | +17.6% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $75.86 | +9.3% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $75.72 | +10.7% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Williams Trading | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $72.27 | +10.7% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $73.14 | +12.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $70.86 | +9.3% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $71.22 | +3.8% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $71.49 | +9.3% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $70.9 | +13.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $70.93 | +2.4% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $69.91 | +6.6% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $74.59 | +6.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $75.4 | +5.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $82 | $75.09 | +13.5% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $74.35 | +9.3% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $71 | $69.36 | -1.7% | May 22, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $72.18 | +12.1% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $74 | $73.5 | +2.4% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $83 | $72.1 | +14.9% | Apr 21, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $73.14 | +10.7% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $76 | $68.39 | +5.2% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $76 | $70.63 | +5.2% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $73 | $70.09 | +1.0% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Paul Cole | $73 | $67.55 | +1.0% | Aug 29, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $69 | $61.34 | -4.5% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $61 | $61.7 | -15.6% | May 28, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $68 | $63.24 | -5.9% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $71 | $62.91 | -1.7% | May 14, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $59 | $60.2 | -18.4% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $66 | $58.48 | -8.7% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $64 | $56.89 | -11.4% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Ross Fowler | $65 | $59.32 | -10.0% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | Shahriar Pourreza | $64 | $57.77 | -11.4% | Feb 2, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Steve Fleishman | $62 | $58.07 | -14.2% | Jan 16, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Sophie Karp | $57 | $52.14 | -21.1% | Oct 5, 2023 |
| UBS | Ross Fowler | $68 | $58.99 | -5.9% | Jun 6, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $68 | $61.27 | -5.9% | Apr 19, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $62.1 | +1.0% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $59 | $53.97 | -18.4% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $65.54 | -7.3% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $63.88 | -12.8% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $66.2 | -0.4% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $73 | $67.24 | +1.0% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $65.19 | -1.7% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $62.73 | -18.4% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $68.98 | -8.7% | May 23, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $68.56 | -3.1% | May 4, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $70.59 | +5.2% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $73.04 | +6.6% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $73.02 | -4.5% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $67 | $64.22 | -7.3% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Steve Fleishman | $69 | $64.22 | -4.5% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Julien Dumoulin Smith | $67 | $63.72 | -7.3% | Dec 17, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Maheep Mandloi | $71 | $58.74 | -1.7% | Jul 13, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CMS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.2%
Up to 20 sessions
CMSSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.13 beat the $1.10 consensus by 2.7%, and revenue of $2.73B exceeded the $2.46B estimate by 11%. Management reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance of $3.83-$3.90. The electric rate case yielded 65% of the requested ask with a maintained 9.9% ROE. Year-to-date, 110 MW of new contracts have been signed, and the backlog stands at 9 GW. CMS executed $495M in equity forward contracts in Q1, partially de-risking its $700M 2026 financing plan. Moody's placed the utility on a negative outlook, citing the size and timing of the five-year capital plan.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained. CMS reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.83-$3.90, unchanged from prior expectations.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS of $1.13 beat the $1.10 estimate by 2.7%; revenue of $2.73B beat by 11%.
- Full-year EPS guidance of $3.83-$3.90 reaffirmed.
- Electric rate case delivered 65% of ask with 9.9% ROE maintained.
- 110 MW of new contracts signed YTD; 9 GW backlog could drive $2-$5B capex per gigawatt.
- $495M in equity forward contracts executed, de-risking the $700M 2026 financing plan.
- Moody's negative outlook on the utility reflects capital-recovery timing concerns.
Management priorities
- File electric rate case in June and gas rate case in August/September.
- Submit a twenty-year Integrated Resource Plan with a growth scenario.
- Advance data center contracts and zoning approvals.
- Pursue additional equity forward contracts to de-risk 2027-2028 financing.
- Invest in renewable, storage, and natural-gas resources to meet load growth.
- Continue CE Way cost-reduction initiatives.
Related earnings events
UtilitiesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T22:51:47.496932+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T22:51:47.494019+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.