Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Chipotle Raises Comp Guidance Despite Traffic Risks

Chipotle's Q2 results support the case that menu innovation, loyalty improvements, and restaurant productivity investments are translating into growth. The raised comparable-sales outlook strengthens that evidence, but the thesis still depends on traffic durability, cost control, and execution against the expansion and remodel agenda.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $41.85B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.33 Consensus $0.32
EPS surprise +3.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.35B Consensus $3.33B
Revenue surprise +0.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +12.5% Event window
SPY move +1.7% Same window
Abnormal move +10.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.4% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management reported faster revenue and comparable-sales growth, highlighted HEEP installation progress and broader international expansion, and raised full-year comparable-sales guidance from flat to low single-digit growth. The current analysis also identifies a cyclospora-related Q3 headwind and recent traffic softening.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year comparable-sales guidance to low single-digit growth; the supplied analysis also cites expected mid-2% pricing impact in Q3.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 revenue grew 9.3% year over year to $3.3 billion, while comparable sales rose 2.2%.
  • Management attributed momentum to menu innovation, Rewards enhancements, and high-efficiency equipment.
  • HEEP was installed in more than 1,000 restaurants, with a target of about 2,000 by year-end.
  • International expansion is advancing across Mexico, South Korea, Singapore, and the Middle East.
  • A cyclospora-related headwind and softer recent traffic temper the otherwise stronger outlook.

Management priorities

  • Complete the HEEP rollout to about 2,000 restaurants by year-end.
  • Continue menu innovation and launch additional limited-time protein offerings in the second half of 2026.
  • Deploy the frictionless in-restaurant Rewards experience.
  • Expand restaurants and partner-operated locations internationally.
  • Develop catering and Build-Your-Own initiatives for broader rollout.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $3B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '27 estimate $3B
Show 1 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4568.2%
Neutral2131.8%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$32.84Current
$30.1Low
$46.23Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 1, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeAug 24, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainAug 5, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 4, 2026
Show 61 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $32.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$40$36.9 +21.8%Aug 24, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$45$37.15 +37.0%Aug 4, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$50$38.49 +52.2%Jul 30, 2026
StephensJim Salera$40$34.24 +21.8%Jul 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$44$34.24 +34.0%Jul 30, 2026
See 173 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-30T15:06:45.316688+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T16:00:59.821671+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T16:00:59.818846+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.