Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Chipotle leans on efficiency and innovation as comps soften

The call supports a measured long-term growth case built on operational efficiency, menu and digital initiatives, and expansion, but the near-term evidence is mixed because comparable sales, margins and guidance sentiment weakened.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $40.18B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.29 Consensus $0.29
EPS surprise +1.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.00B Consensus $3.02B
Revenue surprise -0.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -18.2% Event window
SPY move -1.1% Same window
Abnormal move -17.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 6.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.1% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior analysis, the narrative shifted from maintained guidance and stronger comparable-sales recovery expectations to lowered guidance sentiment, softer comps, greater pricing sensitivity and a broader emphasis on execution.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment moved from maintained to lowered. Management plans gradual 2026 pricing focused on value rather than full inflation pass-through.

Key takeaways

  • Management described modest sales growth alongside declining comparable sales and margin pressure.
  • The operating response centers on menu innovation, digital rewards, HEAP equipment and new restaurants.
  • International expansion and a catering pilot broaden the growth plan, but execution and consumer-demand risks remain.

Management priorities

  • Roll out HEAP equipment to improve throughput and labor efficiency
  • Use menu innovation, digital rewards and targeted marketing to lift frequency
  • Expand restaurants internationally while developing catering and Build Your Own occasions

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2B Q4 '23 actual $3B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $3B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '27 estimate $3B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4568.2%
Neutral2131.8%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$31.85Current
$30.1Low
$46.23Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 1, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeAug 24, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainAug 5, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 4, 2026
Show 61 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $31.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$40$36.9 +25.6%Aug 24, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$45$37.15 +41.3%Aug 4, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$50$38.49 +57.0%Jul 30, 2026
StephensJim Salera$40$34.24 +25.6%Jul 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$44$34.24 +38.1%Jul 30, 2026
See 173 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Historical context

All CMG earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T20:31:01.667512+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T20:31:01.664742+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.