Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024

Chipotle Q3: Growth Holds, Margins Face Inflation Pressure

The quarter supports a constructive operating trajectory: transaction-led sales growth, restaurant openings and operational initiatives remained positive. The counterweight is margin pressure from inflation and menu costs, so evidence for durable earnings growth depends on execution and margin recovery.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $37.53B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.27 Consensus $0.25
EPS surprise +8.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.79B Consensus $2.82B
Revenue surprise -0.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -7.9% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -7.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +11.3% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis shows continued sales and transaction growth, while the operating focus shifted toward managing a lower restaurant margin and scaling throughput, hiring and loyalty initiatives. Expansion plans also extended into additional international markets.

Guidance delta

Maintained: full-year comparable-sales guidance was unchanged.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 sales increased 13% year over year, with 6% comparable sales and a 3% transaction comp increase.
  • Restaurant margin declined to 25.5% as food-cost inflation and new menu items weighed.
  • Management highlighted throughput initiatives, AI-enabled hiring and loyalty tools, and continued expansion.

Management priorities

  • Scale dual-sided plancha, produce slicer and expo initiatives to improve throughput.
  • Expand AI-enabled hiring, loyalty and personalization capabilities.
  • Continue Chipotlane-led openings and international expansion in Canada, Europe and Dubai.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2B Q4 '23 actual $3B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $3B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '27 estimate $3B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4568.2%
Neutral2131.8%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$28.14Current
$30.1Low
$45.96Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 19, 2026
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 15, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Show 61 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $28.14. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationAnalyst unavailable$36$29.88 +28.0%Oct 19, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$37$30.56 +31.5%Oct 16, 2026
StephensAnalyst unavailable$38$30.52 +35.1%Oct 15, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$40$30.52 +42.2%Oct 15, 2026
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$40$36.9 +42.2%Aug 24, 2026
See 177 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Historical context

All CMG earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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GPC Genuine Parts Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% -5.1% GPC Q3 2026: Industrial Strength, Automation, and Split Progress
GM General Motors Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +0.3% -6.8% GM posts strong quarter, raises outlook as trucks and software lead
HAS Hasbro, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +55.9% +11.2% Hasbro raises guidance as Magic revenue tops $600 million
CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +5.8% -2.0% Crown Holdings: Volume Growth Offsets Inflation in Q3

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T15:40:47.779948+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-21T15:40:47.777056+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.