Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1438.9%
Neutral1747.2%
Bearish513.9%
CME Group Inc. · CME · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
CME posts record Q1 volume as products and retail reach expand
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: record volume, international expansion, retail distribution, and product launches reinforce CME's growth trajectory, while margin changes, regulatory execution, competition, and the absence of reported-versus-consensus actuals limit confidence.
Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services
$100.88B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.64
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $1.61B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.5%
Event window
SPY move
+1.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.7%
Up to 20 sessions
CMESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CME FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove CME's -1.5% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in CME's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for CME after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the focus shifted from a record 2024 base and planned fee changes toward a record Q1 driven by 13% year-over-year average daily volume growth, stronger international activity, higher margin requirements, and new product and market-structure initiatives.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis describes management's guidance sentiment as maintained.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes record Q1 revenue above $1.6 billion and adjusted net income above $1 billion.
- Average daily volume rose 13% year over year to 29.8 million contracts, with commodity volume up 19% and financial volume up 12%.
- Management highlighted international growth, retail broker partnerships, FX SPOT Plus, and the planned BrokerTec Chicago launch.
- Higher margin requirements supported a reported single-day cash-flow record but could affect future activity.
Management priorities
- Expand micro-products and retail broker partnerships.
- Advance BrokerTec Chicago and international market penetration.
- Pursue cross-margin efficiencies and additional product innovation.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$280.56Current
$151Low
$255.3Average
$337High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 19, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 9, 2023 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 10, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Feb 25, 2021 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 19, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2017 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2016 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 8, 2015 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 21, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 14, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | May 21, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
| BGB Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 26, 2012 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2012 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $280.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $337 | $276.44 | +20.1% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $281 | $270.18 | +0.2% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $270 | $263.14 | -3.8% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Welden | $301 | $265.1 | +7.3% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $271.54 | -3.8% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $330 | $252.8 | +17.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $243.61 | +5.1% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $324 | $237.46 | +15.5% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $260 | $236.6 | -7.3% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $320 | $248.12 | +14.1% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $329 | $267.85 | +17.3% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $323 | $263.8 | +15.1% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $353 | $282.44 | +25.8% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $316 | $285.71 | +12.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $362 | $294.82 | +29.0% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $297.38 | +10.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $302 | $300.42 | +7.6% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $294.62 | +21.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $312 | $294.62 | +11.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $319 | $273.41 | +13.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $320 | $269.09 | +14.1% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $272.42 | +8.4% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $314 | $269.5 | +11.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $280 | $267.81 | -0.2% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $269.59 | +6.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick O'Shaughnessy | $307 | $271.45 | +9.4% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $263.6 | -0.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $264.46 | +11.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $285 | $261.78 | +1.6% | Sep 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $298 | $277.18 | +6.2% | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick O'Shaughnessy | $287 | $254.57 | +2.3% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $258 | $227.43 | -8.0% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $231 | $227.14 | -17.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Christopher Allen | $250 | $223.57 | -10.9% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $235 | $218.47 | -16.2% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Craig Siegenthaler | $177 | $215.74 | -36.9% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $193 | $198.92 | -31.2% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $225 | $199.38 | -19.8% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $209 | $197.25 | -25.5% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| UBS | Alex Kromm | $250 | $203.78 | -10.9% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Andrew Bond | $187 | $212.59 | -33.3% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $228 | $212.59 | -18.7% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $210 | $212.21 | -25.1% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $198 | $174.76 | -29.4% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $176.93 | -30.1% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $171.12 | -10.9% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $194.69 | -25.1% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $205.46 | -39.1% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $202.14 | -24.4% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $198.24 | -23.0% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $195.34 | -14.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $198.5 | -19.4% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $195.99 | -22.3% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $201.51 | -13.7% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $203.55 | -24.1% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $233 | $204.36 | -17.0% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $204.36 | -12.3% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $204.36 | -16.2% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Simon Clinch | $235 | $200.43 | -16.2% | Jun 10, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $204.68 | -8.0% | Jun 3, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $190.15 | -25.1% | May 19, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $230 | $200.1 | -18.0% | May 16, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $223 | -0.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $259 | $223.03 | -7.7% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $225.93 | -9.5% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Alex Kromm | $269 | $237.46 | -4.1% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Daniel Fannon | $258 | $221.8 | -8.0% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Eoin Mullany | $190 | $215.65 | -32.3% | Nov 2, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Richard Repetto | $230 | $192.18 | -18.0% | Oct 1, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Kenneth Hill | $151 | $197.42 | -46.2% | Apr 29, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $208 | $194.79 | -25.9% | Apr 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CME the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad spectrum of underlying assets, such as interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, alongside fixed-income products.…
Historical context
All CME earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-09T00:03:27.736600+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T07:10:44.489289+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T07:10:44.486641+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.