C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. · CHRW · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

C.H. Robinson scales Lean AI while managing freight and legal risks

The quarter supports a constructive operating thesis centered on Lean AI productivity, share gains, and disciplined capital allocation. The evidence is balanced by freight-market pressure, legal exposure, and the need to demonstrate that productivity gains persist as automation scales.

Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials $18.02B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.61 Consensus $1.53
EPS surprise +5.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.93B Consensus $4.35B
Revenue surprise +13.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -15.4% Event window
SPY move +1.7% Same window
Abnormal move -17.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.9% Up to 20 sessions
CHRWSPY benchmark

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What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the company reported continued AI-led execution, added the DeSpir Logistics acquisition, launched a closed-loop agentic logistics system, lowered capex guidance, and highlighted a Texas jury verdict as a more prominent risk.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its 2026 operating-income target range and lowered 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $65 million-$75 million.

Key takeaways

  • Adjusted operating income increased year over year, while NAST and Global Forwarding reached mid-cycle margin targets despite weak freight demand.
  • Management said Lean AI productivity improvement has exceeded 60% and is being scaled across the enterprise.
  • Volume outperformed the Cass Freight Shipment Index for a 13th consecutive quarter, supporting continued market-share gains.
  • The quarter added DeSpir Logistics to the growth plan and introduced a closed-loop agentic logistics system.

Management priorities

  • Scale Lean AI Engineer and Planner across NAST and Global Forwarding.
  • Add AI-enabled automation to reduce manual work and improve data quality.
  • Pursue niche tuck-in acquisitions while evaluating larger opportunities.
  • Focus investment on high-return organic initiatives and maintain balance-sheet discipline.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CHRW REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $4B Q4 '23 actual $4B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $4B Q1 '24 actual $4B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $5B Q2 '24 actual $4B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $5B Q3 '24 actual $5B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4B Q2 '25 actual $4B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $4B Q3 '25 actual $4B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $4B Q4 '25 actual $4B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4B Q1 '26 actual $4B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4B Q2 '26 actual $5B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5B Q4 '26 estimate $4B Q1 '27 estimate $4B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2351.1%
Neutral1840.0%
Bearish48.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$152.84Current
$62Low
$159.52Average
$237High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeSep 8, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainAug 11, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainJul 31, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 30, 2026
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $152.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinDavid Vernon$151$148.29 -1.2%Aug 11, 2026
Stifel NicolausBruce Chan$225$146.92 +47.2%Jul 31, 2026
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$237$149.13 +55.1%Jul 30, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$196$150.9 +28.2%Jul 30, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$192$173.75 +25.6%Jul 30, 2026
See 107 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. Its comprehensive range of services spans various shipping modalities. This includes brokerage for both full truckload (FTL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, managing everything from single-pallet shipments to full container loads. C.H. Robinson also coordinates intermodal transport, which involves moving goods in containers or trailers through a combination of truck and rail networks, in addition to acting as a non-vessel operating common carrier (NVOCC) for ocean freight and arranging air cargo shipments. The company consistently provides end-to-end door-to-door delivery services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-13T19:13:38.001581+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T04:20:48.380552+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T04:20:48.377768+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.