C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. · CHRW · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024

C.H. Robinson: Strong execution, but Q4 freight risks remain

The current analysis supports a measured constructive view: execution, productivity, digital tools, and market-share initiatives are improving the operating profile, but the durability of those gains remains dependent on freight conditions and disciplined cost control.

Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials $16.78B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.28 Consensus $1.12
EPS surprise +14.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.64B Consensus $4.53B
Revenue surprise +2.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -6.0% Event window
SPY move -2.0% Same window
Abnormal move -4.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.5% Up to 20 sessions
CHRWSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, the current quarter showed stronger enterprise execution and a larger contribution from Global Forwarding, while management added clearer caution that peaked ocean rates could create Q4 pressure. The operating-model, AI, and productivity themes remained consistent.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the key change was greater emphasis on execution, productivity, and technology while acknowledging potential Q4 pressure from lower ocean rates.

Key takeaways

  • Management described continued operating-model execution, pricing discipline, and productivity gains as central to margin expansion.
  • Digital brokerage and generative-AI tools are being scaled across the order lifecycle, alongside investment in drop-trailer capabilities.
  • The outlook is constructive on market-share opportunities, but softer ocean rates and an uncertain freight recovery remain material offsets.

Management priorities

  • Scale the operating model and lean processes.
  • Expand AI-enabled pricing, revenue management, and digital brokerage.
  • Invest in technology and talent while pursuing disciplined pricing and market-share gains.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CHRW EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.80 Q4 '23 actual $0.50, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.62 Q1 '24 actual $0.86, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.96 Q2 '24 actual $1.15, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.12 Q3 '24 actual $1.28, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.16 Q2 '25 actual $1.29, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.30 Q3 '25 actual $1.40, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.12 Q4 '25 actual $1.23, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.23 Q1 '26 actual $1.35, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.53 Q2 '26 actual $1.61, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.75 Q4 '26 estimate $1.60 Q1 '27 estimate $1.62
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2351.1%
Neutral1840.0%
Bearish48.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$143.82Previous close
$62Low
$162.02Average
$237High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 7, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 6, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeSep 8, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainAug 11, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $143.82. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Raymond JamesDavid Hicks$170$141.38 +18.2%Oct 15, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$153$142.31 +6.4%Oct 12, 2026
Stifel NicolausBruce Chan$209$135.18 +45.3%Oct 8, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$200$134.44 +39.1%Oct 7, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$217$134.92 +50.9%Oct 6, 2026
See 114 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. Its comprehensive range of services spans various shipping modalities. This includes brokerage for both full truckload (FTL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, managing everything from single-pallet shipments to full container loads. C.H. Robinson also coordinates intermodal transport, which involves moving goods in containers or trailers through a combination of truck and rail networks, in addition to acting as a non-vessel operating common carrier (NVOCC) for ocean freight and arranging air cargo shipments. The company consistently provides end-to-end door-to-door delivery services.…

Historical context

All CHRW earnings

Industrials peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
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FAST Fastenal Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.3% +1.1% Fastenal Q3: Share Gains and Digital Adoption Lift Growth

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T08:50:44.207573+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T08:50:44.203947+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.