Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy49 ratings
Bullish3061.2%
Neutral1734.7%
Bearish24.1%
Carnival Corporation & plc · CCL · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q2 2025
Carnival: Record Q2, stronger margins and new growth investments
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis for Carnival: resilient demand, yield improvement, higher onboard spending and new private-island capacity are supporting growth, while debt reduction improves financial flexibility. The main test is whether record margins and demand remain durable as project costs, loyalty-program deferrals and macro risks increase.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$35.82B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.35
Consensus $0.25
EPS surprise
+41.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.33B
Consensus $6.21B
Revenue surprise
+2.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+6.9%
Event window
SPY move
+1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+19.6%
Up to 20 sessions
CCLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CCL FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CCL rise 6.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in CCL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for CCL after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis reports a record Q2 with EBITDA up 26%, higher margins, and net income $185 million above guidance. It places greater emphasis on Celebration Key and other private-island projects, Aida Evolution, and Carnival Rewards, while also highlighting near-term cost and yield effects from those investments.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment remained raised; the analysis says Q2 net income was $185 million above guidance and that full-year guidance had been raised previously.
Key takeaways
- The analysis describes record Q2 results, with EBITDA up 26% and net income more than tripling year over year.
- Yield and margin improvements surpassed 2019 benchmarks, with 2026 targets reached ahead of schedule.
- Celebration Key and other private-island destinations are central to the growth plan.
- Refinancing and debt prepayment reduced interest expense and supported progress toward investment-grade leverage.
- Carnival Rewards is expected to be revenue-negative initially before becoming accretive to yields after two years.
Management priorities
- Expand Celebration Key and other private-island destinations.
- Continue Aida Evolution upgrades and scheduled new-ship deliveries.
- Launch and integrate Carnival Rewards with co-branded credit-card incentives.
- Use targeted marketing to support new destinations and demand.
- Continue debt reduction while pursuing investment-grade leverage.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$26.35Current
$18Low
$30.37Average
$42High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 15, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 3, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 28, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2021 |
| Redburn | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 20, 2020 |
| CFRA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 14, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 23, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 23, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 27, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2018 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2017 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 7, 2016 |
| Numis Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 30, 2015 |
| Natixis | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2015 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 5, 2014 |
| Shore Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 12, 2014 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | May 30, 2013 |
| RS Platou Markets | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 21, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 24, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 24, 2012 |
| Charles Stanley | Hold | Accumulate | Downgrade | Feb 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $26.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $24.68 | +13.9% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $34 | $24.54 | +29.0% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $36 | $25.04 | +36.6% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $28.7 | $25.38 | +8.9% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $29 | $25.11 | +10.1% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jamie Rollo | $32.5 | $25.11 | +23.3% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $21.8 | +6.3% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $22.31 | +21.4% | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $30 | $22.35 | +13.9% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $22.11 | +32.8% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $33 | $22.11 | +25.2% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Woronka | $29 | $22.28 | +10.1% | Sep 15, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Tristan Thomas-Martin | $30 | $26.68 | +13.9% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $42 | $28.57 | +59.4% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $28.84 | +32.8% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $28.72 | +25.2% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $28.72 | +32.8% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $30.85 | +36.6% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $36 | $28.12 | +36.6% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $28.06 | +36.6% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $28.69 | +36.6% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $24.19 | +48.0% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $28.21 | +29.0% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $38 | $31.7 | +44.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jamie Rollo | $33 | $31.88 | +25.2% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $32.27 | +25.2% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $31.92 | +29.0% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $31.12 | +44.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $31 | $31.92 | +17.6% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $40 | $31.12 | +51.8% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $34 | $31.12 | +29.0% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $38 | $31.12 | +44.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $28.12 | +40.4% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $28.2 | +36.6% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $28.76 | +25.2% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $28.6 | +51.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $27.62 | +40.4% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $35 | $27.86 | +32.8% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $28.97 | +51.8% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $28.91 | +32.8% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $29.4 | +32.8% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $37 | $30.14 | +40.4% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $38 | $30.71 | +44.2% | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $31.19 | +40.4% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $25.48 | +29.0% | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $27 | $23.77 | +2.5% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $32 | $21.02 | +21.4% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jamie Rollo | $22 | $23.84 | -16.5% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $29 | $26.38 | +10.1% | Dec 2, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Woronka | $19 | $18.02 | -27.9% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $20 | $17.84 | -24.1% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jamie Rollo | $16.5 | $18.48 | -37.4% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Didora | $24 | $18.97 | -8.9% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $27 | $18.76 | +2.5% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $25 | $18.61 | -5.1% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $25 | $18.42 | -5.1% | Jun 26, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Greg Badishkanian | $19 | $17.82 | -27.9% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jamie Rollo | $13.5 | $17.82 | -48.8% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $17 | $15.65 | -35.5% | May 29, 2024 |
| CFRA | Siye Desta | $19 | $16.37 | -27.9% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $20 | $16.54 | -24.1% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $20 | $16.34 | -24.1% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $25 | $17.19 | -5.1% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $17.19 | -16.5% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $17.19 | -8.9% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $21 | $16.88 | -20.3% | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $24 | $17.2 | -8.9% | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $20 | $16.65 | -24.1% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $22 | $17.33 | -16.5% | Jan 5, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $21 | $14.44 | -20.3% | Sep 29, 2023 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $25 | $17.16 | -5.1% | Jun 30, 2023 |
| Citigroup | James Hardiman | $18 | $15.52 | -31.7% | Jun 27, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $9 | $9.34 | -65.8% | Mar 28, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $10.8 | -62.0% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $20 | $9.69 | -24.1% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $14 | $8.86 | -46.9% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Woronka | $14 | $10.55 | -46.9% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jamie Rollo | $13 | $9.6 | -50.7% | Jun 18, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $30 | $17.41 | +13.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | James Hardiman | $22 | $19.04 | -16.5% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $19 | $20.05 | -27.9% | Apr 1, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Stuart Gordon | $23 | $21.98 | -12.7% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Grambling | $21 | $20.54 | -20.3% | Dec 21, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Benjamin Chaiken | $38 | $20.54 | +44.2% | Dec 21, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Didora | $29 | $18.5 | +10.1% | Dec 7, 2021 |
| HSBC | Ali Naqvi | $18.3 | $21.66 | -30.6% | Aug 19, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brandt Montour | $36 | $28.42 | +36.6% | Jun 17, 2021 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $32 | $25.72 | +21.4% | Apr 20, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CCL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCarnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector. Its extensive fleet of vessels navigates to nearly 700 different ports globally, sailing under a diverse portfolio of acclaimed brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard. Beyond its core cruise operations, the company also provides port services and other related offerings. Its holdings include and it manages hotels, lodges, unique glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches.…
Historical context
All CCL earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T20:40:44.323704+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T20:40:44.320906+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.