Caterpillar Inc. · CAT · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Caterpillar maintains outlook as backlog reaches $78 billion

Caterpillar’s Q3 analysis supports a constructive growth case: demand remained strong, backlog reached a record, and capacity investments target longer-term expansion. The counterweight is that management maintained guidance, with margins near the bottom of the target range and execution, inventory and cost risks still present.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $297.59B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $7.20 Consensus $7.06
EPS surprise +2.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $20.68B Consensus $20.76B
Revenue surprise -0.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -9.3% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -8.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
CATSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, backlog increased from $72 billion to $78 billion and management continued to report strong demand across the main segments. The company shifted emphasis toward additional manufacturing expansion, autonomous hauling and the MaK engine ramp, while maintaining rather than raising its full-year outlook.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its full-year outlook for mid- to high-teens revenue growth, with margin near the bottom of its target range.

Key takeaways

  • Record third-quarter sales rose 17% year over year, while adjusted EPS increased 45%.
  • Backlog reached a record $78 billion across the three primary segments.
  • Management cited data-center power, construction, mining and oil-and-gas compression demand.
  • Free cash flow of $3.8 billion supports continued investment and $2 billion of shareholder returns.

Management priorities

  • Expand manufacturing capacity, including the Sanford, North Carolina facility and 3600 series engine production.
  • Scale autonomous hauling technology and the Major Projects dealer-owned rental joint venture.
  • Ramp the 10-megawatt MaK engine beginning in the fourth quarter and into 2027.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CAT REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $17B Q4 '23 actual $17B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $16B Q1 '24 actual $16B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $17B Q2 '24 actual $17B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $16B Q3 '24 actual $16B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $16B Q2 '25 actual $17B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $17B Q3 '25 actual $18B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $18B Q4 '25 actual $19B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $17B Q1 '26 actual $17B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $19B Q2 '26 actual $21B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $21B Q3 '26 actual $21B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $21B Q1 '27 estimate $19B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold57 ratings
Bullish3154.4%
Neutral2238.6%
Bearish47.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$647.39Previous close
$164Low
$612.07Average
$1,165High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 29, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 26, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 26, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 12, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2026
Show 52 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $647.39. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$840$687 +29.8%Oct 26, 2026
UBSSteven Fisher$750$687 +15.8%Oct 26, 2026
BernsteinChad Dillard$749$762.17 +15.7%Oct 14, 2026
Truist FinancialJamie Cook$1,100$838.47 +69.9%Oct 5, 2026
NeedhamAnalyst unavailable$980$815.56 +51.4%Sep 10, 2026
See 112 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Caterpillar Inc., a global enterprise founded in 1925 and headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois (having previously operated as Caterpillar Tractor Co. until its rebranding in 1986), is a premier manufacturer and vendor of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas power units, and industrial gas turbines across the world. The company's extensive offerings are organized into several operational divisions: Construction Industries: This segment delivers a broad spectrum of machinery for construction projects, including asphalt pavers, versatile backhoe and skid steer loaders, various sizes of excavators (from compact to heavy-duty), compactors, road-building equipment like cold planers and motorgraders, pipelayers, site preparation tractors, telehandlers, and utility vehicles, alongside a range of wheel loaders and track-type equipment.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-29T17:11:53.463524+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-30T01:23:13.979536+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-30T11:30:43.306855+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-30T11:30:43.303923+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.