Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold56 ratings
Bullish3155.4%
Neutral2137.5%
Bearish47.1%
Caterpillar Inc. · CAT · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Caterpillar demand stays strong as capacity risks rise
The supplied analysis supports a constructive view of Caterpillar's operating momentum: demand, backlog, and power-related growth remain strong, but returns depend on capacity execution and management of tariff and concentration risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$377.70B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$5.16
Consensus $4.71
EPS surprise
+9.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$19.13B
Consensus $17.85B
Revenue surprise
+7.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+11.7%
Up to 20 sessions
CATSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CAT FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CAT rise 3.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in CAT's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for CAT after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts emphasis toward capacity investment and delivery timing. Compared with the prior analysis, tariff mitigation is clearer, while the risk of demand concentration and delayed backlog conversion is more prominent.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook while planning higher investment to expand capacity and support continued growth.
Key takeaways
- Record demand and backlog support a constructive operating picture.
- Power and Energy, data-center power, autonomy, and digital services are central growth themes.
- The key tension is strong demand versus capacity, tariff, and execution risk.
Management priorities
- Expand large-engine and turbine capacity.
- Scale autonomous equipment and the CAT AI assistant.
- Grow digital and services revenue through technology, dealers, and partnerships.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$826.64Current
$164Low
$626.43Average
$1,165High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| HSBC Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | May 16, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 13, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | May 1, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 7, 2024 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 6, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Dec 21, 2023 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 8, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| DA Davidson | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 8, 2022 |
| OTR Global | Mixed | Positive | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 13, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 20, 2021 |
| CFRA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 28, 2020 |
| Stephens & Co. | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Feb 3, 2020 |
| Daiwa Capital | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 12, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2019 |
| Citi | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2019 |
| DZ Bank | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 18, 2018 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 6, 2017 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Aug 3, 2017 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 25, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2015 |
| Axiom Capital | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Sep 24, 2015 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 22, 2015 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 7, 2014 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2014 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2014 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 18, 2013 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 18, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $826.64. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $980 | $815.56 | +18.6% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $882 | $870.11 | +6.7% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $900 | $871.08 | +8.9% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $980 | $892.07 | +18.6% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $1,002 | $894.52 | +21.2% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $925 | $897.49 | +11.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $1,225 | $900.68 | +48.2% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mircea Dobre | $970 | $876.54 | +17.3% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Seth Weber | $897 | $876.54 | +8.5% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $1,118 | $876.54 | +35.2% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mircea Dobre | $900 | $840.85 | +8.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $1,105 | $952.41 | +33.7% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $1,218 | $991.41 | +47.3% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $1,155 | $1,022.28 | +39.7% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $900 | $865.36 | +8.9% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $1,103 | $901.72 | +33.4% | May 11, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $845 | $885.34 | +2.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $1,165 | $885.99 | +40.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $1,043 | $899.2 | +26.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $980 | $890.11 | +18.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $800 | $890.11 | -3.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $915 | $890.11 | +10.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $960 | $798.4 | +16.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $920 | $791.93 | +11.3% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $777.2 | -48.0% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $769 | $787.07 | -7.0% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Williams Trading | Michael Feniger | $825 | $716.87 | -0.2% | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Industrial Alliance Securities | Analyst unavailable | $785 | $704.82 | -5.0% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $425 | $698.2 | -48.6% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $786 | $681.29 | -4.9% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $677 | $680.54 | -18.1% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Shlisky | $650 | $668.04 | -21.4% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $729 | $665.24 | -11.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $805 | $665.24 | -2.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $678 | $665.24 | -18.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $756 | $665.24 | -8.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| William Blair | Analyst unavailable | $735 | $665.24 | -11.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $665.24 | -24.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sabahat Khan | $658 | $665.24 | -20.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $750 | $642.77 | -9.3% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $610 | $635.03 | -26.2% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $702 | $648.41 | -15.1% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $638.49 | -15.3% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $630 | $565.83 | -23.8% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $594.5 | -52.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $675 | $553.55 | -18.3% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| HSBC | Helen Fang | $660 | $569.15 | -20.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $581 | $570.59 | -29.7% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $569 | $569.67 | -31.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $729 | $585.48 | -11.8% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $380 | $590.42 | -54.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $557 | $585.49 | -32.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Adam Seiden | $555 | $585.49 | -32.9% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Adam Seiden | $485 | $527.08 | -41.3% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $502 | $504.76 | -39.3% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $506 | $491.3 | -38.8% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $582 | $486.71 | -29.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $450.66 | -34.7% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $419.04 | -39.5% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $495 | $419.04 | -40.1% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $434.91 | -41.9% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $357 | $353.58 | -56.8% | May 16, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $395 | $313.96 | -52.2% | May 1, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $283 | $290.14 | -65.8% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $300 | $371.44 | -63.7% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $365 | $363 | -55.8% | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $471 | $388.39 | -43.0% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $454 | $379.24 | -45.1% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $332 | $402.02 | -59.8% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael Feniger | $376 | $327.64 | -54.5% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $399 | $330.1 | -51.7% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jerry Revich | $408 | $326.44 | -50.6% | Aug 6, 2024 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $345 | $345 | -58.3% | May 7, 2024 |
| HSBC | Helen Fang | $360 | $349.8 | -56.5% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $390 | $342.95 | -52.8% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Tami Zakaria | $320 | $315.09 | -61.3% | Feb 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Stanley Elliott | $293 | $296.88 | -64.6% | Dec 29, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Stanley Elliott | $300 | $242.16 | -63.7% | Oct 31, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $247.76 | -68.5% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $248.73 | -71.0% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $248.61 | -72.4% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Cowen Cowen | $264 | $232.19 | -68.1% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $237.82 | -77.0% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $230 | $219.34 | -72.2% | Oct 31, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mircea Dobre | $242 | $212.14 | -70.7% | Oct 27, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $266 | $166.72 | -67.8% | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Jamie Cook | $236 | $196.84 | -71.5% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $183.82 | -72.8% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $183.51 | -75.2% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $176.41 | -82.8% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $173.98 | -72.5% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $179.61 | -72.8% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $187.83 | -80.5% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $282 | $195.63 | -65.9% | May 20, 2022 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $235 | $212.07 | -71.6% | May 3, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mircea Dobre | $280 | $210.54 | -66.1% | May 1, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole Deblase | $240 | $210.54 | -71.0% | Apr 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $210.96 | -72.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole Deblase | $250 | $229.92 | -69.8% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $250 | $216.05 | -69.8% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $260 | $216.08 | -68.5% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Seth Weber | $231 | $215.44 | -72.1% | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $255 | $191.95 | -69.2% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $278 | $198.41 | -66.4% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mircea Dobre | $290 | $228.76 | -64.9% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Timothy Thein | $230 | $225.9 | -72.2% | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Adam Seiden | $225 | $225.9 | -72.8% | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $240 | $201.17 | -71.0% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Courtney Yakavonis | $164 | $203.14 | -80.2% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $230 | $206.2 | -72.2% | Aug 6, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Greg Badishkanian | $265 | $203.05 | -67.9% | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jerry Revich | $264 | $237.52 | -68.1% | May 27, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Stanley Elliott | $245 | $224.62 | -70.4% | May 3, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CAT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCaterpillar Inc., a global enterprise founded in 1925 and headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois (having previously operated as Caterpillar Tractor Co. until its rebranding in 1986), is a premier manufacturer and vendor of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas power units, and industrial gas turbines across the world. The company's extensive offerings are organized into several operational divisions: Construction Industries: This segment delivers a broad spectrum of machinery for construction projects, including asphalt pavers, versatile backhoe and skid steer loaders, various sizes of excavators (from compact to heavy-duty), compactors, road-building equipment like cold planers and motorgraders, pipelayers, site preparation tractors, telehandlers, and utility vehicles, alongside a range of wheel loaders and track-type equipment.…
Historical context
All CAT earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Get the CAT recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T19:56:10.135104+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T19:56:10.131135+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.