Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1354.2%
Neutral1041.7%
Bearish14.1%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Carrier Global Corporation · CARR · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Carrier Q1 2026: Data-Center Surge and Pricing Power Offset Residential Softness
Carrier's Q1 2026 results show commercial HVAC and data-center demand more than compensating for residential softness. Data-center orders grew over 500% year-over-year with backlog fully covering the $1.5 billion annual sales target. The company reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of approximately $22 billion, supported by roughly 2% pricing increases (75% tariff-related) expected to offset higher input costs. A new partnership with ZutaCore for 2-phase cooling and upcoming Gen 1 data-center product launches strengthen the pipeline, while European heat-pump adoption accelerates. Aftermarket digital ecosystem growth and field retrofit kits add a recurring revenue layer.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$52.46B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCarrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structured across three primary business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is dedicated to supplying products, controls, services, and complete solutions tailored to the heating, cooling, and ventilation requirements of both residential and commercial clients. Offerings in this area include air conditioning units, heating systems, various control mechanisms, aftermarket components, as well as post-installation repair, maintenance services, and building automation capabilities. The Refrigeration segment focuses on providing transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services. This includes digital solutions for diverse applications such as trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal transport, food retail, and warehouse cooling.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.57
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+12.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.34B
Consensus $5.01B
Revenue surprise
+6.5%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$59.92Current
$43Low
$66.71Average
$95High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 12, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 28, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 13, 2022 | |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 31, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 8, 2021 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $59.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $68.15 | +33.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $71.24 | +25.2% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $67.17 | +31.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $64.32 | +3.5% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $64.35 | +23.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $52.74 | -8.2% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $53.67 | +16.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $67 | $53.24 | +11.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Carrier Global to | $72 | $52.9 | +20.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $53.03 | +23.5% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $54.66 | +16.8% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $59 | $54.62 | -1.5% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Carrier Global to | $72 | $58.74 | +20.2% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $75 | $56.75 | +25.2% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $57.16 | +0.1% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Carrier Global to | $72 | $59.47 | +20.2% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $83 | $66.97 | +38.5% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $75 | $68.21 | +25.2% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $78 | $75.43 | +30.2% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $85 | $81.61 | +41.9% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $88 | $81.61 | +46.9% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $95 | $80.42 | +58.5% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $90 | $79.35 | +50.2% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $80 | $75.37 | +33.5% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $74 | $75.37 | +23.5% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $75 | $69.04 | +25.2% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $79 | $69.55 | +31.8% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $72 | $66.77 | +20.2% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $70 | $64.83 | +16.8% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $65 | $64.84 | +8.5% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Carrier Global to Outperform | $75 | $66 | +25.2% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $71 | $63.4 | +18.5% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $53 | $54.42 | -11.5% | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.73 | -21.6% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $42.52 | -11.5% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $43.02 | -24.9% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $43.9 | -23.2% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $47 | $38.16 | -21.6% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $39.18 | -24.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $39.41 | -28.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $39.27 | -13.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $60 | $44.54 | +0.1% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $50 | $47.98 | -16.6% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Vlad Bystricky | $55 | $47.98 | -8.2% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $65 | $47.66 | +8.5% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $57 | $52.52 | -4.9% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Markus Mittermaier | $61 | $53.4 | +1.8% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $66 | $56.14 | +10.1% | Sep 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $61 | $55.93 | +1.8% | Sep 7, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $60 | $54.97 | +0.1% | Jul 30, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $58 | $53.66 | -3.2% | Jul 29, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $57 | $43.41 | -4.9% | Apr 19, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CARR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+8.8%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+7.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.9%
Up to 20 sessions
CARRSPY benchmark
Follow CARR with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
EPS of $0.57 beat consensus of $0.508 by 12.2%, and revenue of $5.34 billion exceeded the $5.01 billion estimate by 6.5%. The stock posted an abnormal move of approximately +7.8% on 2.4x baseline volume, though it subsequently drifted down about 4.9%. Data-center orders surged over 500% YoY with backlog covering the $1.5 billion annual target. Carrier announced a new strategic investment partnership with ZutaCore to advance 2-phase cooling technology. Management dismissed pending litigation against residential HVAC manufacturers as meritless.
Guidance delta
Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue and earnings guidance of approximately $22 billion despite macro uncertainty and tariff headwinds. Guidance sentiment is maintained and capex outlook remains stable. Pricing actions of roughly 2% (75% tariff-related) are expected to neutralize higher input costs for the full year.
Key takeaways
- Commercial HVAC and data-center segments delivered double-digit order growth, offsetting softness in residential channels.
- Pricing increases of roughly 2% (75% tariff-related) are expected to neutralize higher input costs for the full year.
- Aftermarket digital ecosystem and field retrofit kits are positioned for continued double-digit revenue growth.
- Guidance for FY 2026 revenue and earnings is reaffirmed despite macro uncertainty and tariff headwinds.
- Strong momentum in European heat-pump demand and upcoming product launches (Viessmann boiler tier, Gen 1 units) support future growth.
Management priorities
- Launch Viessmann entry-tier boiler and expand North American domestic hot water solutions.
- Roll out 1-MW, 3-MW and 5-MW CDUs throughout 2026-2027.
- Introduce Gen 1 data-center units this summer.
- Scale the residential digital ecosystem to integrate homeowners, dealers and distributors.
- Continue M&A scouting in liquid-cooling space and deepen partnership with ZutaCore.
Related earnings events
IndustrialsURI · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026United Rentals Q2: Record Revenue, Raised Guidance, and a Possible Investment-Grade UpgradeNSC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Norfolk Southern Beats on Volume Strength as Intermodal and Coal Drive Q2 GrowthHON · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Honeywell Q2: Beat and Raise as Portfolio Reshaping Nears Completion
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T18:31:58.482686+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T18:31:58.479009+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.