Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1354.2%
Neutral1041.7%
Bearish14.1%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Carrier Global Corporation · CARR · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Carrier: Commercial strength offsets residential HVAC pressure
The earnings evidence is mixed for a durable growth case: commercial HVAC, aftermarket and data-center demand are strong, but residential weakness caused a cited $500 million sales hit and management's guidance sentiment was lowered. Longer-term growth initiatives remain credible within the supplied analysis, but they do not yet offset the near-term housing and margin risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$45.65B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.67
Consensus $0.63
EPS surprise
+5.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.58B
Consensus $5.65B
Revenue surprise
-1.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-8.2%
Up to 20 sessions
CARRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CARR FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CARR rise 0.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in CARR's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for CARR after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, guidance sentiment changed from maintained to lowered. The current analysis adds a larger residential sales headwind, aggressive cost reductions, a new $5 billion repurchase authorization, continued data-center momentum and a roughly $1 billion backlog, while residential destocking and margin timing remain central concerns.
Guidance delta
Management's guidance sentiment moved from maintained in the prior-quarter analysis to lowered in the current analysis. The current analysis cites FY2025 guidance of $22 billion sales, $2.65 EPS and $2 billion free cash flow.
Key takeaways
- Residential HVAC volumes remained under pressure, with the current analysis citing a $500 million sales hit and inventory destocking.
- Commercial HVAC, aftermarket and data-center businesses delivered about 30% sales growth, supported by a backlog nearing $1 billion.
- Cost reductions, digital platforms and capacity expansion support the longer-term growth case, but guidance was lowered and residential weakness persists.
Management priorities
- Execute inventory destocking and cost-reduction actions, including the stated $100 million-plus 2026 savings target.
- Expand data-center capacity, magnetic-bearing chillers, container units and digital platforms such as Lynx and Abound.
- Advance heat-pump adoption, Carrier Energy HEMS and the Japan data-center infrastructure initiative.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$54.86Current
$45Low
$67.49Average
$95High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 12, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 28, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 13, 2022 | |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 31, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 8, 2021 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $54.86. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $54.87 | +22.1% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $59.92 | +42.2% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $68.15 | +45.8% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $71.24 | +36.7% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $67.17 | +44.0% | May 1, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $64.32 | +13.0% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $64.35 | +34.9% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $52.74 | +0.3% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $53.67 | +27.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $67 | $53.24 | +22.1% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Carrier Global to | $72 | $52.9 | +31.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $53.03 | +34.9% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $54.66 | +27.6% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $59 | $54.62 | +7.5% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Carrier Global to | $72 | $58.74 | +31.2% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $75 | $56.75 | +36.7% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $57.16 | +9.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Carrier Global to | $72 | $59.47 | +31.2% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $83 | $66.97 | +51.3% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $75 | $68.21 | +36.7% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $78 | $75.43 | +42.2% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $85 | $81.61 | +54.9% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $88 | $81.61 | +60.4% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $95 | $80.42 | +73.2% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $90 | $79.35 | +64.1% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $80 | $75.37 | +45.8% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $74 | $75.37 | +34.9% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $75 | $69.04 | +36.7% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $79 | $69.55 | +44.0% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $72 | $66.77 | +31.2% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $70 | $64.83 | +27.6% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $65 | $64.84 | +18.5% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Carrier Global to Outperform | $75 | $66 | +36.7% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $71 | $63.4 | +29.4% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $53 | $54.42 | -3.4% | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.73 | -14.3% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $42.52 | -3.4% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $43.02 | -18.0% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $43.9 | -16.2% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $47 | $38.16 | -14.3% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $39.18 | -18.0% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $39.41 | -21.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $39.27 | -5.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $60 | $44.54 | +9.4% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $50 | $47.98 | -8.9% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Vlad Bystricky | $55 | $47.98 | +0.3% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $65 | $47.66 | +18.5% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $57 | $52.52 | +3.9% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Markus Mittermaier | $61 | $53.4 | +11.2% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $66 | $56.14 | +20.3% | Sep 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $61 | $55.93 | +11.2% | Sep 7, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $60 | $54.97 | +9.4% | Jul 30, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $58 | $53.66 | +5.7% | Jul 29, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $57 | $43.41 | +3.9% | Apr 19, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CARR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCarrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structured across three primary business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is dedicated to supplying products, controls, services, and complete solutions tailored to the heating, cooling, and ventilation requirements of both residential and commercial clients. Offerings in this area include air conditioning units, heating systems, various control mechanisms, aftermarket components, as well as post-installation repair, maintenance services, and building automation capabilities. The Refrigeration segment focuses on providing transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services. This includes digital solutions for diverse applications such as trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal transport, food retail, and warehouse cooling.…
Historical context
All CARR earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Get the CARR recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T00:46:04.852352+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T00:46:04.849676+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.