Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1250.0%
Neutral1250.0%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Carrier Global Corporation · CARR · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Carrier Q4 2024: Commercial HVAC Strength Meets Execution Risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: commercial HVAC, aftermarket growth, heat-pump mix, and integrated systems provide support, while regional demand, tariffs, FX, pricing, and execution determine whether that trajectory persists.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$45.30B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.51
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $5.20B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.4%
Up to 20 sessions
CARRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CARR FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove CARR's -1.6% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in CARR's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for CARR after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis adds Toshiba to the portfolio, references the Chubb divestiture, emphasizes rising investment in capacity, and highlights the planned rollout of cascaded heat pumps, Carrier Energy, and Quantum Leap.
Guidance delta
Maintained: the supplied analysis describes a 2025 outlook of mid-single-digit organic growth, 100 bp margin expansion, and 17% EPS growth.
Key takeaways
- Commercial HVAC and aftermarket momentum remained the central growth supports in the supplied analysis.
- Management emphasized heat-pump mix, integrated systems, and data-center cooling as growth avenues.
- Portfolio changes and capacity expansion support the strategy, but Europe and China remain areas to monitor.
- The key test is whether new products, capacity, and channel synergies convert into sustained growth and margin improvement.
Management priorities
- Expand North American commercial-HVAC capacity, especially at Charlotte.
- Launch cascaded heat pumps, Carrier Energy, and the Quantum Leap data-center cooling platform.
- Increase aftermarket attachment rates and develop Viessmann channel and multi-brand revenue synergies.
- Advance integrated heat-pump, home-energy-management, and data-center-cooling offerings.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$54.96Current
$45Low
$67.61Average
$95High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 28, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 13, 2022 | |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 31, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $54.96. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $54.24 | +27.4% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $55.03 | +11.0% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $56.1 | +16.4% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $74 | $55.38 | +34.6% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $54.87 | +21.9% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $59.92 | +41.9% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $68.15 | +45.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $71.24 | +36.5% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $67.17 | +43.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $64.32 | +12.8% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $64.35 | +34.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $52.74 | +0.1% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $53.67 | +27.4% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $67 | $53.24 | +21.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Carrier Global to | $72 | $52.9 | +31.0% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $53.03 | +34.6% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $54.66 | +27.4% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $59 | $54.62 | +7.4% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Carrier Global to | $72 | $58.74 | +31.0% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $75 | $56.75 | +36.5% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $57.16 | +9.2% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Carrier Global to | $72 | $59.47 | +31.0% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $83 | $66.97 | +51.0% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $75 | $68.21 | +36.5% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $78 | $75.43 | +41.9% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $85 | $81.61 | +54.7% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $88 | $81.61 | +60.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $95 | $80.42 | +72.9% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $90 | $79.35 | +63.8% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $80 | $75.37 | +45.6% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $74 | $75.37 | +34.6% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $75 | $69.04 | +36.5% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $79 | $69.55 | +43.7% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $72 | $66.77 | +31.0% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $70 | $64.83 | +27.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $65 | $64.84 | +18.3% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Carrier Global to Outperform | $75 | $66 | +36.5% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $71 | $63.4 | +29.2% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $53 | $54.42 | -3.6% | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.73 | -14.5% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $42.52 | -3.6% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $43.02 | -18.1% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $43.9 | -16.3% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $47 | $38.16 | -14.5% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $39.18 | -18.1% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $39.41 | -21.8% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $39.27 | -5.4% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $60 | $44.54 | +9.2% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $50 | $47.98 | -9.0% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Vlad Bystricky | $55 | $47.98 | +0.1% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $65 | $47.66 | +18.3% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $57 | $52.52 | +3.7% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Markus Mittermaier | $61 | $53.4 | +11.0% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $66 | $56.14 | +20.1% | Sep 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $61 | $55.93 | +11.0% | Sep 7, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $60 | $54.97 | +9.2% | Jul 30, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $58 | $53.66 | +5.5% | Jul 29, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $57 | $43.41 | +3.7% | Apr 19, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CARR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCarrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structured across three primary business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is dedicated to supplying products, controls, services, and complete solutions tailored to the heating, cooling, and ventilation requirements of both residential and commercial clients. Offerings in this area include air conditioning units, heating systems, various control mechanisms, aftermarket components, as well as post-installation repair, maintenance services, and building automation capabilities. The Refrigeration segment focuses on providing transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services. This includes digital solutions for diverse applications such as trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal transport, food retail, and warehouse cooling.…
Historical context
All CARR earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST Fastenal Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.3% | +1.1% | Fastenal Q3: Share Gains and Digital Adoption Lift Growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-28T00:00:20.742579+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T04:10:47.980636+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T04:10:47.977975+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.