Ball Corporation · BALL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Ball’s volume growth supports its outlook, with capacity execution ahead

The current analysis supports a measured constructive view: broad volume growth, aluminum substitution, and demand in selected beverage and personal-care categories support the outlook, while capacity execution, start-up costs, and integration determine how much of that demand converts into earnings.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $15.90B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.03 Consensus $0.99
EPS surprise +4.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.00B Consensus $3.69B
Revenue surprise +8.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -2.1% Event window
SPY move +1.8% Same window
Abnormal move -4.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.5% Up to 20 sessions
BALLSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The quarter’s analysis adds broader volume momentum and highlights progress on capacity expansion: Benepack integration continues, Millersburg began commercial production, and personal and home-care packaging emerged as a source of growth. The guidance characterization remained maintained, but near-term start-up costs and tight utilization are more prominent watchpoints.

Guidance delta

Maintained: the analysis says the company continues to target 10%+ full-year EPS growth, more than $900 million of free cash flow, and $800 million of total shareholder returns for 2026.

Key takeaways

  • Global beverage-can volume growth broadened across regions, while comparable diluted EPS growth remained positive.
  • Management continues to point to aluminum substrate conversion, energy drinks, non-alcoholic beverages, and personal and home-care packaging as demand drivers.
  • Benepack integration and the Millersburg ramp are intended to add capacity, but near-term start-up costs and utilization constraints are important watchpoints.
  • The current analysis is constructive, but the next leg depends on execution, operating leverage, and input-cost management.

Management priorities

  • Integrate Benepack facilities and capture their expected contribution.
  • Ramp Millersburg toward its planned full value in 2027.
  • Maintain disciplined capital allocation, including the stated shareholder-return framework.
  • Add capacity or debottleneck where customer demand and economics justify it.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
BALL REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $3B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $4B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4B Q2 '26 actual $4B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4B Q4 '26 estimate $4B Q1 '27 estimate $4B
Show 1 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish1777.3%
Neutral522.7%
Bearish00.0%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$59.97Current
$48Low
$70.05Average
$83High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight NeutralUpgradeSep 18, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 5, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 5, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 14, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 9, 2026
Show 18 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $59.97. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$78$63.64 +30.1%Aug 5, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesEdlain Rodriguez$72$63.75 +20.1%Aug 5, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$77$60.29 +28.4%Jul 9, 2026
Raymond JamesMatt Roberts$73$64.03 +21.7%Apr 21, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$75$63.26 +25.1%Feb 4, 2026
See 29 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ball Corporation serves as a global provider of aluminum packaging solutions for a broad spectrum of industries, including beverages, personal care items, and household goods. Its extensive reach covers the United States, Brazil, and numerous international markets. The company's operations are strategically divided into four primary business segments: Beverage Packaging for North and Central America; Beverage Packaging for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Beverage Packaging for South America; and its dedicated Aerospace division. Within its packaging enterprise, Ball is a key manufacturer and supplier of aluminum beverage containers, catering to producers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other liquid products. Its product line also encompasses extruded aluminum aerosol containers, innovative reclosable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Beyond packaging, Ball Corporation maintains a substantial presence in the aerospace sector.…

Historical context

All BALL earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T20:08:44.640482+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-09T01:23:14.388487+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T01:00:56.045670+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T01:00:56.042503+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.