Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish1777.3%
Neutral522.7%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Ball Corporation · BALL · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Ball: Strong EPS growth, but mix and tariffs pressure margins
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong aluminum-can demand, high contract coverage, and operational initiatives can support earnings growth, but the case depends on converting volume growth into margins while managing tariffs and capacity execution.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$15.01B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.90
Consensus $0.87
EPS surprise
+3.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.34B
Consensus $3.21B
Revenue surprise
+4.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.6%
Up to 20 sessions
BALLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about BALL FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did BALL fall 5.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in BALL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for BALL after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shows stronger reported EPS growth and a higher full-year comparable EPS growth target than the prior analysis. It also adds quantified tariff-related inefficiencies, highlights lower-margin non-alcoholic mix as a drag, and shifts attention to the Northwest ramp and Florida's path to breakeven.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook, with a 12%-15% full-year comparable diluted EPS growth target, up from the prior analysis's 11%-14% range.
Key takeaways
- Current analysis reports comparable EPS of $0.90, up 22% year over year.
- Energy drinks and non-alcoholic beverages supported volume growth, while mix reduced North American margins.
- Management expects global volume growth above its long-term range and sees new capacity as a path to relieve constraints.
- Tariff-related inefficiencies, capacity ramps, and partner concentration remain the main counterweights.
Management priorities
- Ramp the new Northwest facility and reach Florida facility breakeven by Q4.
- Continue operational efficiency and cost-management initiatives.
- Maintain the share repurchase program and expand contract coverage for 2026 volumes.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$56.37Previous close
$48Low
$70.05Average
$83High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 14, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 5, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 5, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 13, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 10, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 24, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 2, 2018 |
| KeyBanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Feb 12, 2018 | |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 10, 2015 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $56.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $63.64 | +38.4% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $72 | $63.75 | +27.7% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $60.29 | +36.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Matt Roberts | $73 | $64.03 | +29.5% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $63.26 | +33.0% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $63.26 | +17.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $63.12 | +17.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $61.77 | +24.2% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Ghansham Panjabi | $75 | $62.75 | +33.0% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $61.77 | +24.2% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $67 | $56.03 | +18.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $53.53 | +11.8% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $69 | $53.91 | +22.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $53.91 | +6.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $48 | $47.58 | -14.8% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $47.4 | +15.3% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $55 | $50.1 | -2.4% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $50.48 | +8.2% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Alton Stump | $78 | $51.68 | +38.4% | May 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $58 | $52.01 | +2.9% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $75 | $67.29 | +33.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stefan Diaz | $78 | $63.9 | +38.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Ghansham Panjabi | $70 | $62.2 | +24.2% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $56 | $62.3 | -0.7% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $76 | $61.58 | +34.8% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $64 | $62.26 | +13.5% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $67 | $70.3 | +18.9% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $83 | $70.31 | +47.2% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Barclays | Michael Leithead | $71 | $66.74 | +26.0% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| CFRA | Matthew Miller | $78 | $67.84 | +38.4% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $68 | $64.78 | +20.6% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $74 | $61.88 | +31.3% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Christopher Parkinson | $59 | $55.06 | +4.7% | Aug 18, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $61 | $56.36 | +8.2% | Aug 5, 2022 |
Track every rating change on BALL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationBall Corporation serves as a global provider of aluminum packaging solutions for a broad spectrum of industries, including beverages, personal care items, and household goods. Its extensive reach covers the United States, Brazil, and numerous international markets. The company's operations are strategically divided into four primary business segments: Beverage Packaging for North and Central America; Beverage Packaging for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Beverage Packaging for South America; and its dedicated Aerospace division. Within its packaging enterprise, Ball is a key manufacturer and supplier of aluminum beverage containers, catering to producers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other liquid products. Its product line also encompasses extruded aluminum aerosol containers, innovative reclosable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Beyond packaging, Ball Corporation maintains a substantial presence in the aerospace sector.…
Historical context
All BALL earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +10.0% | -0.7% | Nike’s performance categories grow as resets weigh on FY27 outlook |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.9% | +13.4% | Carnival posts record Q3 as demand and efficiency offset fuel costs |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -3.0% | Darden reaffirms FY2027 outlook as brands deliver mixed comp growth |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.6% | +3.3% | AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan |
| LEN-B Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | — | Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | -4.1% | Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the BALL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T10:30:45.191452+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T10:30:45.188778+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.