Ball Corporation · BALL · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Ball: Strong EPS growth, but mix and tariffs pressure margins

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong aluminum-can demand, high contract coverage, and operational initiatives can support earnings growth, but the case depends on converting volume growth into margins while managing tariffs and capacity execution.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $15.01B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.90 Consensus $0.87
EPS surprise +3.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.34B Consensus $3.21B
Revenue surprise +4.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -5.7% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -5.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.6% Up to 20 sessions
BALLSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shows stronger reported EPS growth and a higher full-year comparable EPS growth target than the prior analysis. It also adds quantified tariff-related inefficiencies, highlights lower-margin non-alcoholic mix as a drag, and shifts attention to the Northwest ramp and Florida's path to breakeven.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook, with a 12%-15% full-year comparable diluted EPS growth target, up from the prior analysis's 11%-14% range.

Key takeaways

  • Current analysis reports comparable EPS of $0.90, up 22% year over year.
  • Energy drinks and non-alcoholic beverages supported volume growth, while mix reduced North American margins.
  • Management expects global volume growth above its long-term range and sees new capacity as a path to relieve constraints.
  • Tariff-related inefficiencies, capacity ramps, and partner concentration remain the main counterweights.

Management priorities

  • Ramp the new Northwest facility and reach Florida facility breakeven by Q4.
  • Continue operational efficiency and cost-management initiatives.
  • Maintain the share repurchase program and expand contract coverage for 2026 volumes.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
BALL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.55 Q1 '24 actual $0.68, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.70 Q2 '24 actual $0.74, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.87 Q3 '24 actual $0.91, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.87 Q2 '25 actual $0.90, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.02 Q3 '25 actual $1.02, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.90 Q4 '25 actual $0.91, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.84 Q1 '26 actual $0.94, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.99 Q2 '26 actual $1.03, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.07 Q4 '26 estimate $1.02 Q1 '27 estimate $1.02
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish1777.3%
Neutral522.7%
Bearish00.0%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$56.37Previous close
$48Low
$70.05Average
$83High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight NeutralUpgradeSep 18, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 5, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 5, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 14, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 9, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJul 9, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainApr 15, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy HoldUpgradeApr 1, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 4, 2026
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainFeb 4, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainMay 14, 2025
Loop Capital Buy BuyMaintainMay 7, 2025
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainFeb 5, 2025
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 5, 2025
Credit Suisse Neutral OutperformDowngradeSep 13, 2023
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainNov 10, 2022
Atlantic Equities Neutral OverweightDowngradeAug 5, 2022
Goldman Sachs Buy NeutralUpgradeMar 24, 2020
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainNov 2, 2018
KeyBanc Sector Weight UnderweightUpgradeFeb 12, 2018
Vertical Research Buy HoldUpgradeDec 15, 2017
Macquarie Outperform NeutralUpgradeNov 10, 2015
Longbow Research Neutral BuyDowngradeDec 17, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $56.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$78$63.64 +38.4%Aug 5, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesEdlain Rodriguez$72$63.75 +27.7%Aug 5, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$77$60.29 +36.6%Jul 9, 2026
Raymond JamesMatt Roberts$73$64.03 +29.5%Apr 21, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$75$63.26 +33.0%Feb 4, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$66$63.26 +17.1%Feb 4, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$66$63.12 +17.1%Feb 4, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$70$61.77 +24.2%Feb 4, 2026
Robert W. BairdGhansham Panjabi$75$62.75 +33.0%Feb 4, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$70$61.77 +24.2%Feb 4, 2026
RBC CapitalArun Viswanathan$67$56.03 +18.9%Jan 15, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$63$53.53 +11.8%Jan 8, 2026
Truist FinancialMichael Roxland$69$53.91 +22.4%Jan 6, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$60$53.91 +6.4%Jan 6, 2026
Wells FargoGabe Hajde$48$47.58 -14.8%Oct 15, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$65$47.4 +15.3%Oct 13, 2025
UBSJoshua Spector$55$50.1 -2.4%Oct 6, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$61$50.48 +8.2%Oct 3, 2025
Loop Capital MarketsAlton Stump$78$51.68 +38.4%May 7, 2025
UBSJoshua Spector$58$52.01 +2.9%Jan 10, 2025
RBC CapitalArun Viswanathan$75$67.29 +33.0%Oct 17, 2024
Morgan StanleyStefan Diaz$78$63.9 +38.4%Sep 4, 2024
Robert W. BairdGhansham Panjabi$70$62.2 +24.2%Aug 14, 2024
UBSJoshua Spector$56$62.3 -0.7%Jul 17, 2024
Truist FinancialMichael Roxland$76$61.58 +34.8%Jun 25, 2024
Wells FargoGabe Hajde$64$62.26 +13.5%Jun 20, 2024
Truist FinancialMichael Roxland$67$70.3 +18.9%Apr 29, 2024
JefferiesPhilip Ng$83$70.31 +47.2%Apr 29, 2024
BarclaysMichael Leithead$71$66.74 +26.0%Apr 4, 2024
CFRAMatthew Miller$78$67.84 +38.4%Apr 1, 2024
Morgan StanleyAngel Castillo$68$64.78 +20.6%Mar 18, 2024
RBC CapitalArun Viswanathan$74$61.88 +31.3%Feb 20, 2024
Mizuho SecuritiesChristopher Parkinson$59$55.06 +4.7%Aug 18, 2023
Truist FinancialMichael Roxland$61$56.36 +8.2%Aug 5, 2022
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ball Corporation serves as a global provider of aluminum packaging solutions for a broad spectrum of industries, including beverages, personal care items, and household goods. Its extensive reach covers the United States, Brazil, and numerous international markets. The company's operations are strategically divided into four primary business segments: Beverage Packaging for North and Central America; Beverage Packaging for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Beverage Packaging for South America; and its dedicated Aerospace division. Within its packaging enterprise, Ball is a key manufacturer and supplier of aluminum beverage containers, catering to producers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other liquid products. Its product line also encompasses extruded aluminum aerosol containers, innovative reclosable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Beyond packaging, Ball Corporation maintains a substantial presence in the aerospace sector.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T10:30:45.191452+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T10:30:45.188778+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.