Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy45 ratings
Bullish3373.3%
Neutral1226.7%
Bearish00.0%
AutoZone, Inc. · AZO · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2025
AutoZone: Commercial Growth and Expansion Continue, With FX and Cost Risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: commercial execution, store expansion, technology investment, and international growth provide operating momentum, but FX, tariffs, distribution costs, and execution risks weaken confidence in uninterrupted earnings growth.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$46.20B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $37.00
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.41B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.4%
Event window
SPY move
+2.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.6%
Up to 20 sessions
AZOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AZO FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AZO's -3.4% move after FY2025 Q3 earnings?What changed in AZO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AZO after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Commercial growth strengthened to double-digit levels, while two distribution centers and additional MegaHubs were added to the expansion plan. FX and distribution-center costs remained notable earnings headwinds; management expects gross-margin pressure to ease in Q4.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management reaffirmed its investment plan and expressed confidence in continued Q4 momentum.
Key takeaways
- Commercial sales accelerated, with double-digit growth and a larger contribution to revenue.
- Management is investing about $1.3 billion in capex for stores, distribution centers, technology, and Hub/MegaHub expansion.
- FX and distribution-center costs pressured reported earnings, while management expects some gross-margin pressure to ease in Q4.
- The prior quarter also showed commercial and international momentum, supporting continuity in the operating strategy.
Management priorities
- Expand domestic and international stores, including Hub and MegaHub formats.
- Improve inventory placement, delivery speed, and parts availability.
- Invest in distribution centers, technology, and supply-chain capacity.
- Maintain disciplined SG&A growth while pursuing commercial share gains.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$2,819.03Current
$1,490Low
$3,384.92Average
$4,741High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 21, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 6, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 20, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 22, 2021 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | May 26, 2021 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2020 |
| Nomura Instinet | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 27, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 27, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Strong Buy | Downgrade | May 26, 2020 |
| Citi | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 13, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 27, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 6, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 17, 2018 |
| Moffett Nathanson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 4, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 25, 2016 |
| BTIG Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2016 |
| Gabelli & Co. | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2015 |
| William Blair | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2014 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 25, 2014 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2014 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $2,819.03. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Zhihan Ma | $3,698 | $2,913.28 | +31.2% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $4,230 | $2,817.83 | +50.1% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $3,700 | $2,894.73 | +31.3% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $3,500 | $2,894.73 | +24.2% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $3,850 | $2,894.73 | +36.6% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $3,400 | $2,894.73 | +20.6% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $3,648 | $2,781 | +29.4% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Steven Forbes | $3,750 | $2,894.73 | +33.0% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | David Bellinger | $3,000 | $2,894.73 | +6.4% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $3,400 | $2,894.73 | +20.6% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $3,400 | $2,894.73 | +20.6% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $3,500 | $2,829.81 | +24.2% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $3,500 | $2,832.92 | +24.2% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $3,500 | $2,910.97 | +24.2% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $3,500 | $2,977.82 | +24.2% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Seth Sigman | $3,637 | $2,990.27 | +29.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $3,817 | $3,058.79 | +35.4% | May 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $3,700 | $3,068.6 | +31.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $3,750 | $2,999.47 | +33.0% | May 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $4,023 | $3,100.11 | +42.7% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $3,605 | $3,100.11 | +27.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $4,000 | $3,100.11 | +41.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $4,000 | $3,100.11 | +41.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $3,200 | $3,100.11 | +13.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $3,600 | $3,100.11 | +27.7% | May 27, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $4,325 | $3,672.68 | +53.4% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $4,300 | $3,742.02 | +52.5% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | David Bellinger | $3,600 | $3,694.41 | +27.7% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $4,045 | $3,663.82 | +43.5% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $4,800 | $3,637.17 | +70.3% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $4,100 | $3,675.79 | +45.4% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $3,900 | $3,681.26 | +38.3% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $4,555 | $3,763.27 | +61.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $4,000 | $3,472.66 | +41.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $3,880 | $3,318.08 | +37.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | David Bellinger | $3,550 | $3,303.82 | +25.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $4,076 | $3,415.43 | +44.6% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Bret Jordan | $4,400 | $3,428.95 | +56.1% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Stember | $4,650 | $3,390 | +65.0% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $4,500 | $3,405.34 | +59.6% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $3,850 | $3,394.07 | +36.6% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $4,400 | $3,493.36 | +56.1% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $4,400 | $3,493.36 | +56.1% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $4,325 | $3,493.36 | +53.4% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $4,500 | $3,493.36 | +59.6% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $4,318 | $3,493.36 | +53.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $4,100 | $3,493.36 | +45.4% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Justin Kleber | $4,500 | $3,822.92 | +59.6% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $4,850 | $3,680.24 | +72.0% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Tristan Thomas-Martin | $4,600 | $4,147.26 | +63.2% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $4,800 | $4,090.48 | +70.3% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $4,700 | $4,099.32 | +66.7% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $4,700 | $4,120 | +66.7% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $4,500 | $4,166.32 | +59.6% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $4,741 | $4,232.57 | +68.2% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $4,504 | $4,232.57 | +59.8% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Stember | $4,135 | $3,749.81 | +46.7% | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $3,995 | $3,829.93 | +41.7% | May 23, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $3,950 | $3,879.97 | +40.1% | May 19, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $3,850 | $3,555.88 | +36.6% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $3,500 | $3,555.88 | +24.2% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $3,850 | $3,555.88 | +36.6% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $3,763 | $3,555.88 | +33.5% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $4,000 | $3,555.88 | +41.9% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $3,850 | $3,555.88 | +36.6% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $4,025 | $3,555.88 | +42.8% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $3,678 | $3,250 | +30.5% | Jan 2, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Tristan Thomas-Martin | $3,700 | $3,370.27 | +31.3% | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $3,450 | $3,342.72 | +22.4% | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $3,753 | $3,342.72 | +33.1% | Dec 11, 2024 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $3,875 | $3,342.72 | +37.5% | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $3,750 | $3,342.72 | +33.0% | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $3,390 | $3,337.23 | +20.3% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Stember | $3,634 | $3,100 | +28.9% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $2,917 | $3,129.78 | +3.5% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $3,560 | $3,189.33 | +26.3% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $3,341 | $3,051.15 | +18.5% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | David Bellinger | $3,350 | $3,043.97 | +18.8% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Steven Zaccone | $3,500 | $3,043.97 | +24.2% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $3,300 | $3,036.18 | +17.1% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Brain Nagel | $2,600 | $3,031.42 | -7.8% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $3,350 | $3,040.09 | +18.8% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew McClintock | $3,024 | $3,123.36 | +7.3% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $3,278 | $2,940.11 | +16.3% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Max Rakhlenko | $3,450 | $2,763.55 | +22.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $3,394 | $2,800.01 | +20.4% | May 22, 2024 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $3,340 | $2,820.83 | +18.5% | May 22, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $3,038 | $2,820.83 | +7.8% | May 22, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Chris Bottiglieri | $3,000 | $2,820.83 | +6.4% | May 22, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $3,250 | $2,820.83 | +15.3% | May 22, 2024 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $3,250 | $2,834.66 | +15.3% | May 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $3,000 | $2,677.85 | +6.4% | Dec 5, 2023 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $2,500 | $2,618.57 | -11.3% | Dec 1, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $2,750 | $2,577.02 | -2.4% | Sep 20, 2023 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $2,800 | $2,535.29 | -0.7% | Sep 18, 2023 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $2,900 | $2,493.83 | +2.9% | Jun 16, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $2,700 | $2,399.11 | -4.2% | Jun 12, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $2,663 | $2,419.81 | -5.5% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $2,600 | $2,465.89 | -7.8% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $2,800 | $2,482.04 | -0.7% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $2,540 | $2,449.79 | -9.9% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $2,850 | $2,545.98 | +1.1% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $2,400 | $2,243.65 | -14.9% | Oct 5, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $2,330 | $2,111.42 | -17.3% | Sep 27, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $2,292 | $2,117.34 | -18.7% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Christopher Horvers | $2,450 | $2,097.59 | -13.1% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $2,450 | $2,114.68 | -13.1% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $2,660 | $2,114.68 | -5.6% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $2,350 | $2,101.21 | -16.6% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $2,520 | $2,114 | -10.6% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $2,260 | $2,216.56 | -19.8% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $2,450 | $2,198.74 | -13.1% | Sep 9, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $2,350 | $2,224.32 | -16.6% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | David Bellinger | $2,350 | $2,159.81 | -16.6% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $2,296 | $2,159.81 | -18.6% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $2,296 | $2,169.27 | -18.6% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $2,420 | $2,013.81 | -14.2% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $2,285 | $1,964.66 | -18.9% | May 26, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $2,174 | $1,928.31 | -22.9% | May 25, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $1,920 | $1,938.13 | -31.9% | May 25, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $2,400 | $2,175.95 | -14.9% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Steven Zaccone | $2,210 | $1,878.77 | -21.6% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $2,100 | $1,951.16 | -25.5% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $2,100 | $2,084.52 | -25.5% | Dec 30, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Brian Nagel | $2,500 | $1,965.83 | -11.3% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $2,250 | $1,988.86 | -20.2% | Dec 8, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $2,045 | $1,988.86 | -27.5% | Dec 8, 2021 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $2,210 | $1,988.86 | -21.6% | Dec 8, 2021 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $1,925 | $1,911.84 | -31.7% | Nov 15, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Elizabeth Lane Suzuki | $1,490 | $1,683.76 | -47.1% | Sep 22, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Lavesh Hemnani | $1,785 | $1,683.76 | -36.7% | Sep 22, 2021 |
Track every rating change on AZO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAutoZone, Inc. operates as a leading retailer and distributor specializing in automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company's comprehensive inventory caters to a diverse range of vehicles, including cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks. Their product offerings encompass both new and remanufactured critical hard parts, essential maintenance items, various accessories, and a selection of non-automotive goods. Key automotive components available include A/C compressors, batteries, bearings, belts, hoses, brake calipers, chassis parts, clutches, CV axles, engines, fuel pumps, fuses, ignition and lighting systems, mufflers, radiators, starters, alternators, thermostats, water pumps, and tire repair kits. For vehicle upkeep, AutoZone supplies antifreeze, windshield washer fluid, an extensive array of brake components (drums, rotors, shoes, pads), various automotive fluids (brake, power steering, oil, transmission), oil and fuel additives, and filters for oil, cabin air, engine air, fuel, and transmission.…
Historical context
All AZO earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Get the AZO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-05-13T00:03:22.543359+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T00:51:30.822009+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T00:51:30.819144+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.