Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. · AXSM · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

Axsome: strong commercial growth, pipeline execution remains key

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: commercial momentum and pipeline milestones are positives, while regulatory execution, payer access, GTN discounts and expense growth remain material offsets.

Reported Before market openNASDAQHealthcare $8.66B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $-1.25
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $121.0M
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +3.8% Event window
SPY move -0.6% Same window
Abnormal move +4.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.5% Up to 20 sessions
AXSMSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the focus remained on commercial execution and pipeline progress, with the current analysis emphasizing FDA interactions, GTN discounts, pediatric Solriamfetol development, payer coverage and emerging orexin competition.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained; no quantified guidance change was supplied.

Key takeaways

  • Management analysis characterized revenue growth and demand for Auvelity and Sunosi as strong.
  • The company was advancing Symbravo commercialization and multiple late-stage CNS programs.
  • The main watchpoints were regulatory timing, payer coverage, GTN discounts and rising expenses.

Management priorities

  • Commercial launch of Symbravo
  • Advancing AXS-05, AXS-14, AXS-12 and Solriamfetol programs
  • Expanding Auvelity commercialization and payer coverage

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AXSM REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $68M Q4 '23 actual $72M, beat Q1 '24 estimate $87M Q1 '24 actual $75M, miss Q2 '24 estimate $87M Q2 '24 actual $87M, beat Q2 '25 estimate $140M Q2 '25 actual $150M, beat Q3 '25 estimate $191M Q3 '25 actual $171M, miss Q4 '25 estimate $193M Q4 '25 actual $195M, beat Q1 '26 estimate $191M Q1 '26 actual $189M, miss Q2 '26 estimate $221M Q2 '26 actual $216M, miss Q3 '26 estimate $255M Q4 '26 estimate $297M Q1 '27 estimate $298M Q2 '27 estimate $348M

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy27 ratings
Bullish2696.3%
Neutral13.7%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$168.35Current
$25Low
$228.39Average
$380High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainSep 29, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 18, 2026
Show 22 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $168.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$295$168.6 +75.2%Oct 8, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$267$188.66 +58.6%Sep 29, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$247$198.57 +46.7%Sep 25, 2026
Truist FinancialSrikripa Devarakonda$285$203.1 +69.3%Sep 23, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesGraig Suvannavejh$316$215.77 +87.7%Aug 12, 2026
See 78 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative treatments for a range of central nervous system (CNS) disorders within the United States. Its robust product pipeline features several promising candidates, including: AXS-05, an investigational therapy currently being developed for major depressive disorder and treatment-resistant depression. This compound is also in Phase III clinical evaluation for Alzheimer's disease agitation and has successfully finished Phase II trials investigating its use for smoking cessation.…

Historical context

All AXSM earnings

Healthcare peers this season

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COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +2.7% -14.7% CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue
MDT Medtronic plc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +1.5% Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-21T00:03:31.337707+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T02:50:43.073467+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T02:50:43.070786+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.