Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish1881.8%
Neutral418.2%
Bearish00.0%
Axon Enterprise, Inc. · AXON · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Axon’s Q3 growth story meets investment, timing and margin questions
The supplied analysis describes continued demand across software, services and new products, but the case for sustaining that growth depends on execution: federal contract timing, the Skydio strategy, and component-cost pressure remain material uncertainties.
Why did AXON fall 9.8% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?
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Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$31.08B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.72
Consensus $1.89
EPS surprise
-9.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$908.6M
Consensus $934.3M
Revenue surprise
-2.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move
-9.8%
Event window
SPY move
-4.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
AXONSPY benchmark
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Why did AXON fall 9.8% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in AXON's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AXON after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the latest call adds a substantial strategic commitment to Skydio and an intentional inventory build, while federal Dedrone deployment timing and memory costs sharpen near-term execution and margin questions. Guidance sentiment moved from raised in the prior quarter to maintained in the latest analysis.
Guidance delta
Latest guidance sentiment is described as maintained, versus raised in the prior-quarter analysis. Federal Dedrone deal timing is identified as a source of near-term uncertainty.
Key takeaways
- The analysis identifies software and services as nearly half of revenue, with ARR at $1.8 billion.
- The Skydio investment and exclusive public-safety distribution expand Axon’s drone strategy, while raising questions about ownership and long-term returns.
- Federal Dedrone deployments are described as large but timing-sensitive, limiting near-term visibility.
- Inventory investment is intended to support demand and reduce supply risk, but memory costs are a margin concern.
Management priorities
- Advance the Axon Body 5 launch and new product cycles.
- Scale Skydio drone integration and public-safety distribution.
- Expand Axon 911 deployments and build inventory to support demand and reduce supply-chain risk.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$311.9Current
$300Low
$648.43Average
$900High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 25, 2026 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 6, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Citizens Capital Markets | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Feb 26, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 10, 2023 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | May 18, 2020 |
| Ladenburg Thalmann | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 15, 2018 |
| CL King | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 16, 2018 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $311.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $561 | $383.09 | +79.9% | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $675 | $402.87 | +116.4% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $506.98 | +92.4% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $640 | $528.41 | +105.2% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $715 | $561.47 | +129.2% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $732 | $551.4 | +134.7% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $688 | $609.49 | +120.6% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $724 | $565.8 | +132.1% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $750 | $597.04 | +140.5% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | James Fish | $674 | $457.33 | +116.1% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tim Long | $523 | $426.89 | +67.7% | May 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $433.82 | +92.4% | May 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $434.5 | +71.5% | May 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $416.57 | +41.1% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $675 | $391.53 | +116.4% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $391.53 | +100.4% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $800 | $523.63 | +156.5% | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Jeremy Hamblin | $820 | $543.47 | +162.9% | Feb 25, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | David Paige | $735 | $543.24 | +135.6% | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | James Fish | $690 | $548.22 | +121.2% | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Northcoast Research | Keith Housum | $742 | $591.16 | +137.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $713 | $555.06 | +128.6% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $860 | $554.37 | +175.7% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | James Fish | $753 | $622.38 | +141.4% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $855 | $867.12 | +174.1% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Michael Latimore | $800 | $867.12 | +156.5% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Needham | Joshua Reilly | $870 | $867.12 | +178.9% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $840 | $867.12 | +169.3% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $900 | $867.12 | +188.5% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $885 | $729.62 | +183.7% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $726 | $506.96 | +132.8% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Meta Marshall | $700 | $636.39 | +124.4% | Dec 3, 2024 |
| Needham | Joshua Reilly | $525 | $443.98 | +68.3% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $441 | $443.98 | +41.4% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | William Power | $400 | $364.39 | +28.2% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Jeremy Hamblin | $370 | $315.35 | +18.6% | May 7, 2024 |
| Needham | Joshua Reilly | $400 | $311.27 | +28.2% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $380 | $306.78 | +21.8% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Sami Badri | $300 | $225.13 | -3.8% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $168.59 | -50.3% | Dec 13, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AXON the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAxon Enterprise, Inc., founded in 1993 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, was previously known as TASER International, Inc. until its rebranding in April 2017. The company specializes in the development, production, and sale of conducted energy devices (CEDs) marketed under its well-known TASER brand, catering to both domestic and international clients. Axon's operations are divided into two primary segments: TASER, and Software and Sensors. In addition to its signature TASER devices, such as the TASER 7, X26P, X2, and consumer models, along with their corresponding cartridges, Axon offers an extensive portfolio of hardware and cloud-based software.…
Historical context
All AXON earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| UHAL U-Haul Holding Company | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -15.4% | -3.2% | U-Haul Q2: Rental and storage growth, with execution risks |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.4% | -2.0% | Parker-Hannifin lifts FY2027 outlook as broad demand and backlog strengthen |
| ITT ITT Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.7% | -2.5% | ITT Raises 2026 Outlook as Orders and Margins Strengthen |
| CMI Cummins Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -6.0% | -4.9% | Data-center power demand supports Cummins, while outlook moderates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FNFFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 20260.0% EPS+6.6% move
- MTDFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+3.6% EPS+4.8% move
- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
- STEFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026+9.7% EPS+2.5% move
- IRMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+4.6% EPS-11.1% move
Missed on EPS
- CPTFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-27.2% EPS-3.1% move
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
- UHALFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026-15.4% EPS-3.2% move
- LAMRFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-3.6% EPS-0.8% move
Get the AXON recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-06T06:13:22.349988+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T09:50:43.814394+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T09:50:43.811600+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.