Axon Enterprise, Inc. · AXON · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Axon sustains growth focus as AI adoption meets capacity and funding risks

The current analysis supports a constructive growth narrative centered on AI software, TASER 10, drones, international expansion and enterprise contracts. The evidence is balanced by supply constraints, funding uncertainty, competition and execution risks; the analysis does not establish a forward stock-return conclusion.

Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials $33.32B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.37
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $566.2M
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.6% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -0.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.6× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +16.2% Up to 20 sessions
AXONSPY benchmark

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What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the focus shifted from raised guidance and initial AI Era and Dedrone expansion toward maintained guidance, larger-scale operating metrics, TASER 10 capacity constraints, broader international and enterprise traction, and additional execution and funding risks.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook, while the prior-quarter analysis had characterized guidance as raised.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted revenue above $2 billion, ARR of $1 billion and 123% net revenue retention in the current analysis.
  • TASER 10 demand remains strong, but supply constraints are still limiting fulfillment and require capacity expansion.
  • AI Era Plan adoption, drone capabilities, international bookings and enterprise contracts are the principal growth themes.
  • The current analysis identifies federal funding uncertainty, tariffs, competition and an Arizona headquarters dispute as risks.

Management priorities

  • Scale TASER 10 production and reduce the supply gap.
  • Extend the AI Era Plan, including real-time translation and report automation.
  • Develop drone and autonomous-drone offerings through the Skydio partnership.
  • Invest in sensors, robotics and AI-enabled software.
  • Expand international sales and the enterprise go-to-market organization.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AXON REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $442M Q1 '24 actual $461M, beat Q2 '24 estimate $478M Q2 '24 actual $504M, beat Q3 '24 estimate $525M Q3 '24 actual $544M, beat Q2 '25 estimate $641M Q2 '25 actual $669M, beat Q3 '25 estimate $705M Q3 '25 actual $711M, beat Q4 '25 estimate $756M Q4 '25 actual $797M, beat Q1 '26 estimate $781M Q1 '26 actual $807M, beat Q2 '26 estimate $876M Q2 '26 actual $904M, beat Q3 '26 estimate $940M Q4 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '27 estimate $1B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish1881.8%
Neutral418.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$413.35Current
$300Low
$663.7Average
$900High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 6, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Show 17 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $413.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$600$506.98 +45.2%Sep 3, 2026
Morgan StanleyMeta Marshall$640$528.41 +54.8%Aug 6, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$715$561.47 +73.0%Aug 6, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$732$551.4 +77.1%Aug 6, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$688$609.49 +66.4%Aug 6, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Axon Enterprise, Inc., founded in 1993 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, was previously known as TASER International, Inc. until its rebranding in April 2017. The company specializes in the development, production, and sale of conducted energy devices (CEDs) marketed under its well-known TASER brand, catering to both domestic and international clients. Axon's operations are divided into two primary segments: TASER, and Software and Sensors. In addition to its signature TASER devices, such as the TASER 7, X26P, X2, and consumer models, along with their corresponding cartridges, Axon offers an extensive portfolio of hardware and cloud-based software.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-11T00:01:39.744939+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T12:30:44.354432+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T12:30:44.350892+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.