Ascendis Pharma A/S · ASND · FY2024 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2024

Ascendis: YORVIPATH approval advances launch plans as SKYRTOFA guidance holds

The current analysis supports a mixed but constructive operating picture: YORVIPATH approval and pipeline progress add potential growth drivers, while SKYRTOFA revenue adjustments, payer dynamics, launch execution, and milestone timing remain important constraints.

Reported After market closeNASDAQHealthcare $15.18B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-2.05 Consensus $-1.54
EPS surprise -33.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $38.9M Consensus $113.0M
Revenue surprise -65.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -11.3% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -11.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 7.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +22.4% Up to 20 sessions
ASNDSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

YORVIPATH received FDA approval and a U.S. launch was anticipated for Q1 2025. The company also disclosed a $150 million capped royalty-financing agreement, while SKYRTOFA volume doubled year over year but revenue was affected by market-access true-ups.

Guidance delta

Management maintained full-year SKYRTOFA revenue guidance at EUR220–240 million, despite Q2 market-access true-ups.

Key takeaways

  • YORVIPATH received FDA approval, with a U.S. launch anticipated in Q1 2025.
  • SKYRTOFA volume doubled year over year, while revenue was affected by market-access true-ups.
  • TransCon CNP pivotal data and oncology updates were identified as near-term milestones.

Management priorities

  • Execute the U.S. YORVIPATH launch and patient-support programs
  • Advance SKYRTOFA label expansion and commercial execution
  • Deliver TransCon CNP and oncology pipeline milestones

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ASND REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 actual $151M, None Q1 '24 actual $103M, None Q2 '24 estimate $113M Q2 '24 actual $39M, miss Q2 '25 estimate $233M Q2 '25 actual $186M, miss Q3 '25 estimate $303M Q3 '25 actual $250M, miss Q4 '25 estimate $292M Q4 '25 actual $345M, beat Q1 '26 estimate $309M Q1 '26 actual $285M, miss Q2 '26 estimate $377M Q2 '26 actual $387M, beat Q3 '26 estimate $412M Q4 '26 estimate $413M Q1 '27 estimate $433M Q2 '27 estimate $487M

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish2492.3%
Neutral27.7%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$243.37Current
$136Low
$270.03Average
$344High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Raymond James Outperform Strong BuyDowngradeSep 15, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 2, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 1, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 1, 2026
Show 21 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $243.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$269$227 +10.5%Oct 15, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$344$239.77 +41.3%Sep 16, 2026
Raymond JamesMartin Auster$287$264.92 +17.9%Sep 15, 2026
H.C. WainwrightAnalyst unavailable$344$260.81 +41.3%Sep 10, 2026
OppenheimerLeland Gershell$312$260.25 +28.2%Sep 1, 2026
See 54 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ascendis Pharma A/S is a biopharmaceutical enterprise dedicated to advancing therapeutic solutions for critical medical conditions that currently lack effective treatments. Its commercialized offering is SKYTROFA, a therapy prescribed for individuals suffering from growth hormone deficiency (GHD). The company boasts a robust development pipeline, featuring several TransCon-branded candidates. These include TransCon Growth Hormone (hGH), which is being progressed for pediatric GHD patients in Japan and for adults with GHD. Also under development are TransCon parathyroid hormone for adults with hypoparathyroidism, and TransCon CNP, aimed at treating pediatric achondroplasia. Further expanding its innovative portfolio, Ascendis is also developing a TransCon toll-like receptor (TLR) 7/8 agonist for intratumoral administration, alongside TransCon IL-2 ß/g, designed for systemic delivery. Founded in 2006, this enterprise maintains its corporate headquarters in Hellerup, Denmark.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-10-17T05:10:49.140638+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T01:50:40.983249+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T01:50:40.980512+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.