Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2659.1%
Neutral1534.1%
Bearish36.8%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
ASML Holding N.V. · ASML · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
ASML: AI demand supports outlook as China normalizes
The supplied analysis supports a constructive long-term demand case: AI-related advanced Logic and high-bandwidth-memory demand, High NA EUV progress and installed-base services are supporting the outlook. The main offsets are China normalization, export-control uncertainty and the timing of High NA adoption.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$605.80B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $7.67
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $9.84B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+4.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.1%
Up to 20 sessions
ASMLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ASML FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove ASML's +4.3% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in ASML's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ASML after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The latest analysis shifts the tone from the prior quarter’s caution to confidence: guidance was maintained, High NA deployments advanced, and ASML said it will move from quarterly bookings to annual backlog reporting starting in 2026. Q4 margin strength also included a one-off benefit from lower-than-expected High NA installation costs.
Guidance delta
Management maintained 2025 revenue guidance of €30–35 billion and 51–53% margins; the prior quarter had lowered the outlook to that range.
Key takeaways
- Q4 net sales were €9.3 billion with a 51.7% gross margin, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
- Management cited AI-driven advanced Logic and high-bandwidth-memory demand as key growth drivers.
- High NA EUV deployments are progressing, but adoption timing remains a longer-term question.
- China sales are expected to normalize at around 20% of revenue after a backlog drain.
Management priorities
- Advance High NA EUV deployments and the product roadmap.
- Expand DUV, metrology and inspection platforms.
- Grow installed-base services while leveling factory capacity with pre-built tools.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,571.8Previous close
$800Low
$1,580.47Average
$2,623High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 29, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 20, 2024 |
| New Street Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 26, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 8, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 20, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2021 |
| ABN Amro | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 29, 2019 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 19, 2018 |
| BlueFin | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 16, 2018 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 19, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2016 |
| Summit Research Partners | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 19, 2016 |
| Summit Insights Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 19, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2016 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2015 |
| SNS Securities | Accumulate | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 21, 2015 |
| Liberum | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2015 |
| Pacific Crest | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 6, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 27, 2014 |
| Northland Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2014 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Cautious | Maintain | Apr 16, 2014 |
| LBBW Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 23, 2014 |
| Commerzbank | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Jan 22, 2014 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 26, 2013 |
| Baader Bank | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2013 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2013 |
| Caris & Co. | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2012 | |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $1,571.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Srini Pajjuri | $2,100 | $1,803.25 | +33.6% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $2,100 | $1,838.44 | +33.6% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $2,500 | $1,815.27 | +59.1% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $2,000 | $1,726.04 | +27.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Dai | $2,623 | $1,769.32 | +66.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Joe Quatrochi | $2,200 | $1,929.68 | +40.0% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Srini Pajjuri | $1,700 | $1,481.77 | +8.2% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $1,750 | $1,481.77 | +11.3% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Srini Pajjuri | $1,625 | $1,437.89 | +3.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Dai | $1,911 | $1,422.92 | +21.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Dai | $1,642 | $1,360.09 | +4.5% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $1,450 | $1,263.72 | -7.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Leon Chen | $1,415 | $1,263.72 | -10.0% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,550 | $1,263.72 | -1.4% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $1,528 | $1,163.78 | -2.8% | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Timm Schulze-Melander | $1,200 | $1,021.31 | -23.7% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $1,140 | $1,009.81 | -27.5% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $1,150 | $980.54 | -26.8% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $935 | $987.81 | -40.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $800 | $754.45 | -49.1% | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joe Quatrochi | $790 | $683.52 | -49.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Didier Scemama | $939 | $683.52 | -40.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Srini Pajjuri | $1,100 | $872.27 | -30.0% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $1,000 | $872.05 | -36.4% | Apr 22, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Sara Russo | $1,052 | $992.18 | -33.1% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $665 | $576.44 | -57.7% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Joe Quatrochi | $600 | $533.86 | -61.8% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $590 | $452.95 | -62.5% | Jul 10, 2022 |
Track every rating change on ASML the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze…
Historical context
All ASML earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFY Infosys Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -4.8% | -6.6% | Infosys trims growth outlook as AI revenue and deal wins accelerate |
| SSNC SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.6% | +2.8% | SS&C raises 2026 outlook as AI and tokenization support growth |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.7% | +9.7% | Roper raises DEPS outlook as AI adoption expands across portfolio |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -2.0% | -0.9% | VeriSign reports record registrations as renewal mix becomes a key watchpoint |
| TTMI TTM Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +16.8% | -27.7% | TTM Technologies Q3: Record Growth, Higher Investment, More Deal Risk |
| NOK Nokia Oyj | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +25.0% | -14.8% | Nokia Q3: AI and cloud growth lifts margins as cash flow stays negative |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the ASML recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-15T00:03:22.707476+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T08:30:43.684830+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T08:30:43.682079+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.