Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish932.1%
Neutral1760.7%
Bearish27.2%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
A. O. Smith Corporation · AOS · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
A. O. Smith refocuses on North America as boilers lead growth
The quarter supports a more focused A. O. Smith story: North American boilers and water treatment were the principal operating strengths, while the China divestiture changes the portfolio and capital-allocation framework. The outlook still depends on offsetting input inflation without weakening water-heater demand.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$8.27B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.90
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $960.2M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
AOSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AOS FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AOS's +2.9% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in AOS's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AOS after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
A. O. Smith announced the sale of 81% of its China business to CPE while retaining 19% and a long-term brand licensing agreement. North America grew 3% in Q3, boiler sales increased at a double-digit rate, and water-treatment activity expanded; the company also cited a second water-heater price increase of up to 9.5% effective in December.
Guidance delta
Overall guidance was characterized as maintained, with 2026 boiler growth guidance raised to 10%–12% and full-year guidance updated to exclude China.
Key takeaways
- North American boilers and water treatment were the clearest operating positives in the supplied analysis.
- The China divestiture is intended to refocus the portfolio and provide capital for repurchases.
- Input-cost inflation remains material; pricing actions are a response but may affect demand timing.
- Water-treatment backlog and roughly 30 new dealers support management's growth priorities into 2027.
Management priorities
- Execute the China divestiture and allocate proceeds, including planned share repurchases.
- Scale water-treatment production and expand the independent dealer network.
- Continue disciplined acquisitions in water treatment and water management.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$62.73Current
$59Low
$74.54Average
$90High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | May 15, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 12, 2023 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2023 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 6, 2022 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 7, 2020 |
| Boenning & Scattergood | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 6, 2020 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2019 | |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 20, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 30, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 27, 2018 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2016 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2015 |
| Northland | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2014 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Sidoti & Co. | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $62.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | Bryan Blair | $72 | $59.54 | +14.8% | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $59.22 | -5.9% | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $59.81 | +11.6% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $76 | $58.85 | +21.2% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $59.23 | +19.6% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $59.61 | +6.8% | May 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $60.36 | +11.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Bryan Blair | $80 | $60.32 | +27.5% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $75 | $61.84 | +19.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $78 | $67.18 | +24.3% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $69 | $79.62 | +10.0% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Matt Summerville | $75 | $74.31 | +19.6% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $85 | $73.17 | +35.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $77 | $73.17 | +22.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $70.4 | +19.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $66.36 | +27.5% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $66.84 | +21.2% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $74 | $67.3 | +18.0% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Bryan Blair | $88 | $68.3 | +40.3% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $81 | $78.21 | +29.1% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Matt Summerville | $80 | $78.21 | +27.5% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $80 | $78.21 | +27.5% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| CFRA | Emily Nasseff Mitsch | $90 | $78.21 | +43.5% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $82 | $80.87 | +30.7% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $98 | $82.18 | +56.2% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $97 | $90.14 | +54.6% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $75 | $80.86 | +19.6% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Saree Boroditsky | $90 | $86.31 | +43.5% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $64 | $58.45 | +2.0% | May 20, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationA. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is a global manufacturer and marketer specializing in a comprehensive array of water heating and treatment solutions. Its operations span North America, China, Europe, and India, organized into two primary geographic segments: North America and Rest of World. The company's product portfolio is extensive, featuring residential and commercial water heaters (gas, heat pump, and electric models), boilers, storage tanks, and various water treatment systems. These products cater to a wide range of applications, including homes, apartments, and condominiums, as well as commercial entities such as restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, small businesses, hospitals, and schools.…
Historical context
All AOS earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +22.3% | -0.4% | Sterling raises 2026 outlook as E-Infrastructure demand accelerates |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -3.6% | XPO pairs strong Q3 growth with AI-led efficiency gains |
| APG APi Group Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +6.5% | APi Group posts 23% growth, raises 2026 guidance |
| TXT Textron Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +14.2% | Textron raises outlook as Aviation and Systems deliver double-digit growth |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -3.2% | -1.9% | CPKC posts record Q3 as land bridge and freight volumes expand |
| LII Lennox International Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -7.1% | -10.6% | Lennox grows revenue but cuts outlook as margins face pressure |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ORLYFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+4.3% EPS-2.7% move
- STRLFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+22.3% EPS-0.4% move
- KGCFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+8.7% EPS-6.1% move
- GENFY2027 Q2 · October 28, 2026+2.9% EPS+11.2% move
- KLACFY2027 Q1 · October 28, 2026+2.5% EPS+7.3% move
- SANFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 20260.0% EPS-6.3% move
Missed on EPS
- AWKFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-2.0% EPS+1.1% move
- CPFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-3.2% EPS-1.9% move
- LIIFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-7.1% EPS-10.6% move
- EXRFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-1.7% EPS+0.1% move
- NOWFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-2.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CMGFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-7.1% EPS+2.7% move
Get the AOS recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-29T19:13:56.418038+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-29T01:23:20.584741+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-29T19:50:43.676010+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-29T19:50:43.673378+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.