Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1035.7%
Neutral1657.1%
Bearish27.2%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
A. O. Smith Corporation · AOS · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
AOS Q1 2026: EPS Misses as China Demand and Volume Pressures Mount
A. O. Smith's fiscal Q1 2026 marked a clear deterioration from the record pace of 2025. EPS of $0.85 missed consensus by 9.8% and revenue of $945.6 million fell short by 2.9%, driven by an 11% decline in Rest of World sales as China demand weakened further. Management lowered full-year EPS guidance to $3.70-$4.00 from the $3.85-$4.15 range set in Q4 2025, with downward revisions to water-treatment growth (now 5-6%) and China sales (now low double-digit decline). Offsetting measures include announced 4-7% Q3 price increases, a water-treatment restructuring targeting $6-8 million in annual savings from 2027, and $119 million in free cash flow. The DOE's delay of the commercial water-heater rule to October 2027 altered pre-buy dynamics, and Leonard Valve contributed $16 million in its first partial quarter. The market reacted negatively: a 3.9% abnormal decline on the event session…
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$8.36B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationA. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is a global manufacturer and marketer specializing in a comprehensive array of water heating and treatment solutions. Its operations span North America, China, Europe, and India, organized into two primary geographic segments: North America and Rest of World. The company's product portfolio is extensive, featuring residential and commercial water heaters (gas, heat pump, and electric models), boilers, storage tanks, and various water treatment systems. These products cater to a wide range of applications, including homes, apartments, and condominiums, as well as commercial entities such as restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, small businesses, hospitals, and schools.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.85
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
-9.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$945.6M
Consensus $974.1M
Revenue surprise
-2.9%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$60.13Current
$67Low
$76.77Average
$90High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | May 15, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 12, 2023 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2023 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 6, 2022 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 7, 2020 |
| Boenning & Scattergood | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 6, 2020 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2019 | |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 20, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 30, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 27, 2018 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2016 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2015 |
| Northland | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2014 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Sidoti & Co. | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $60.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $76 | $58.85 | +26.4% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $59.23 | +24.7% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $59.61 | +11.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $60.36 | +16.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Bryan Blair | $80 | $60.32 | +33.0% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $75 | $61.84 | +24.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $78 | $67.18 | +29.7% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $69 | $79.62 | +14.8% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Matt Summerville | $75 | $74.31 | +24.7% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $85 | $73.17 | +41.4% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $77 | $73.17 | +28.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $70.4 | +24.7% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $66.36 | +33.0% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $66.84 | +26.4% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $74 | $67.3 | +23.1% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Bryan Blair | $88 | $68.3 | +46.3% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $81 | $78.21 | +34.7% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Matt Summerville | $80 | $78.21 | +33.0% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $80 | $78.21 | +33.0% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| CFRA | Emily Nasseff Mitsch | $90 | $78.21 | +49.7% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $82 | $80.87 | +36.4% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $98 | $82.18 | +63.0% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $97 | $90.14 | +61.3% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $75 | $80.86 | +24.7% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Saree Boroditsky | $90 | $86.31 | +49.7% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $64 | $58.45 | +6.4% | May 20, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AOS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.9%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-8.3%
Up to 20 sessions
AOSSPY benchmark
Follow AOS with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to Q4 2025, management tone shifted from confident to cautious. Full-year 2026 EPS guidance was lowered from $3.85-$4.15 to $3.70-$4.00. Water-treatment growth was revised down to 5-6%, and the China sales outlook worsened to a low double-digit decline. Q1 EPS of $0.85 fell 11% year-over-year, ending the record earnings streak. The DOE delayed commercial water-heater rule enforcement from October 2026 to October 2027, altering pre-buy dynamics. Leonard Valve, acquired in Q4 2025, contributed $16 million in Q1 sales.
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 EPS range lowered from $3.85-$4.15 to $3.70-$4.00. Water-treatment growth revised down to 5-6%. China sales outlook worsened to low double-digit decline. Capex unchanged at $70-$80 million. Share repurchase target set at $200 million annually.
Key takeaways
- Q1 sales declined 2% to $946 million, with North America up 1% and Rest of World down 11% due to China weakness.
- EPS of $0.85 missed consensus of $0.94 by 9.8%, pressured by lower volumes and $0.03 per share in Leonard Valve transaction costs.
- Revenue of $945.6 million missed estimates by 2.9%.
- Free cash flow rebounded to $119 million on working-capital timing.
- Full-year EPS guidance lowered to $3.70-$4.00 from $3.85-$4.15.
- Management announced 4-7% price increases for water heaters and boilers starting Q3.
Management priorities
- Roll out 4-7% price increases in Q3 for water heaters and boilers.
- Restructure North America water-treatment business to yield $6-8 million annual savings starting 2027.
- Continue share repurchases at a $200 million annual pace.
- Deploy AI-enabled tools for order management, warranty claims, and technical service.
- Maintain $70-80 million capex program while keeping capacity ready for regulatory changes.
Related earnings events
IndustrialsPOOL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Pool Corp Q2: Maintenance Demand Holds, Freight Costs Weigh on MarginsALLE · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Allegion Beats on Q2 Revenue and EPS, Raises Full-Year Outlook as Americas Demand AcceleratesROL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Rollins Q2 2026: Revenue Misses as Digital Lead Slowdown Hits Orkin
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T20:21:39.303998+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T20:21:39.301143+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.