Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1035.7%
Neutral1657.1%
Bearish27.2%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
A. O. Smith Corporation · AOS · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
A.O. Smith Maintains Outlook as Commercial Demand Offsets China Weakness
The call supports a cautiously constructive view: commercial water heaters, boilers, water treatment, India, and Leonard Valve provide growth avenues, while China, residential volumes, input costs, and integration remain material constraints.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$8.04B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.90
Consensus $0.84
EPS surprise
+7.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$912.5M
Consensus $928.3M
Revenue surprise
-1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.6%
Up to 20 sessions
AOSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AOS FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AOS rise 5.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in AOS's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AOS after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, guidance sentiment moved from lowered to maintained and management tone became more confident. Leonard Valve was completed, capex outlook increased, and the company added a digital water-management growth avenue; China and residential-market concerns persisted.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its 2026 outlook: EPS of $3.85-$4.15, modest top-line growth, higher steel costs, and $70-$80 million of capital expenditures.
Key takeaways
- Record 2025 EPS and stronger commercial water-heater, boiler, and water-treatment performance support the outlook.
- Leonard Valve expands the water-management platform, with projected 2026 sales of $70 million.
- China weakness and flat residential wholesale volumes remain offsets to growth.
Management priorities
- Invest in gas tankless water-heater offerings.
- Integrate Purit and scale Indian operations.
- Expand water-management capabilities through Leonard Valve.
- Continue disciplined capital allocation and pursue strategic acquisitions.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$58.02Current
$67Low
$76Average
$90High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | May 15, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 12, 2023 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2023 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 6, 2022 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 7, 2020 |
| Boenning & Scattergood | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 6, 2020 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2019 | |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 20, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 30, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 27, 2018 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2016 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2015 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2015 |
| Northland | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2014 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Sidoti & Co. | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $58.02. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $59.81 | +20.6% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $76 | $58.85 | +31.0% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $59.23 | +29.3% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $59.61 | +15.5% | May 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $60.36 | +20.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Bryan Blair | $80 | $60.32 | +37.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $75 | $61.84 | +29.3% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $78 | $67.18 | +34.4% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $69 | $79.62 | +18.9% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Matt Summerville | $75 | $74.31 | +29.3% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $85 | $73.17 | +46.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $77 | $73.17 | +32.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $70.4 | +29.3% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $66.36 | +37.9% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $66.84 | +31.0% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $74 | $67.3 | +27.5% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Bryan Blair | $88 | $68.3 | +51.7% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $81 | $78.21 | +39.6% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Matt Summerville | $80 | $78.21 | +37.9% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $80 | $78.21 | +37.9% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| CFRA | Emily Nasseff Mitsch | $90 | $78.21 | +55.1% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Halloran | $82 | $80.87 | +41.3% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $98 | $82.18 | +68.9% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Nathan Jones | $97 | $90.14 | +67.2% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $75 | $80.86 | +29.3% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Saree Boroditsky | $90 | $86.31 | +55.1% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $64 | $58.45 | +10.3% | May 20, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AOS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationA. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is a global manufacturer and marketer specializing in a comprehensive array of water heating and treatment solutions. Its operations span North America, China, Europe, and India, organized into two primary geographic segments: North America and Rest of World. The company's product portfolio is extensive, featuring residential and commercial water heaters (gas, heat pump, and electric models), boilers, storage tanks, and various water treatment systems. These products cater to a wide range of applications, including homes, apartments, and condominiums, as well as commercial entities such as restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, small businesses, hospitals, and schools.…
Historical context
All AOS earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
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- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the AOS recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T03:46:05.578900+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T03:46:05.575890+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.