Applied Materials, Inc. · AMAT · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2025

Applied Materials: Record Q3, Lower Q4 Outlook on China Visibility

The supplied analysis supports a two-part view: Applied Materials has durable long-term opportunities in AI-linked semiconductor equipment, GAA, HBM and advanced packaging, but the near-term trajectory has become less certain as China visibility, export-license delays and uneven leading-edge demand reduce the outlook.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $406.51B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.48 Consensus $2.36
EPS surprise +5.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $7.30B Consensus $7.22B
Revenue surprise +1.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -14.1% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -13.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +5.7% Up to 20 sessions
AMATSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about AMAT FY2025 Q3

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AMAT fall 14.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in AMAT's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AMAT after FY2025 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the tone remains confident on long-term AI and technology demand, but near-term guidance has shifted from maintained to lowered. The current analysis adds greater emphasis on China visibility, export-license backlog and uneven leading-edge demand, while highlighting expanded U.S. manufacturing investment and advanced-packaging growth.

Guidance delta

Management lowered the near-term outlook: Q4 revenue is expected around $6.7 billion, primarily due to China visibility, export-license backlog and uneven leading-edge demand.

Key takeaways

  • Current analysis describes record Q3 performance, with revenue up 8% year over year and non-GAAP EPS up 17%.
  • Management linked long-term growth to AI-related compute, GAA, DRAM/HBM, advanced packaging and power delivery.
  • The near-term outlook is weaker because of China-related uncertainty and uneven leading-edge demand.
  • The market reaction was sharply negative relative to the benchmark, while the supplied data shows positive subsequent drift.

Management priorities

  • Expand U.S. manufacturing capacity, including the planned Arizona facility.
  • Advance the EPIC Center and customer co-innovation efforts.
  • Develop GAA, HBM, advanced packaging and hybrid-bonding technologies.
  • Support AI-related equipment demand and domestic semiconductor capacity.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AMAT EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.00 Q4 '23 actual $2.12, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1.91 Q1 '24 actual $2.13, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.99 Q2 '24 actual $2.09, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.02 Q3 '24 actual $2.12, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.36 Q3 '25 actual $2.48, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.11 Q4 '25 actual $2.17, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.21 Q1 '26 actual $2.38, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.68 Q2 '26 actual $2.86, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.40 Q3 '26 actual $3.50, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.06 Q1 '27 estimate $4.21 Q2 '27 estimate $4.52 Q3 '27 estimate $4.87
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy54 ratings
Bullish4277.8%
Neutral1222.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$512.01Current
$85Low
$419.87Average
$900High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 28, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 18, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainAug 14, 2026
Show 49 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $512.01. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$563$479.74 +10.0%Sep 28, 2026
UBSTimothy Arcuri$695$458.39 +35.7%Sep 1, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$590$484.19 +15.2%Aug 25, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$600$507.69 +17.2%Aug 18, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$850$505.2 +66.0%Aug 14, 2026
See 184 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Applied Materials, Inc. engages in provision of materials engineering solutions used to produce semiconductors. The firm also focuses on design, development, production, and servicing of the critical wafer fabrication tools used for customers to manufacture semiconductors. It operates through the following segments: Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS). The Semiconductor Systems segment includes designing, development, manufacturing and sale of equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips referred to as integrated circuits. The AGS segment engages in provision of services, spares, and factory automation software to customer fabrication plants globally. The company was founded on November 10, 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

Historical context

All AMAT earnings
-5.1%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026-0.9%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q2 2026+0.8%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2025

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth
SAIL SailPoint, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% -1.2% SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption
CIEN Ciena Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.0% -10.4% Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog
DOCU DocuSign, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +6.4% +3.7% DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook

Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T02:46:03.259264+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T02:46:03.256109+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.