Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold17 ratings
Bullish15.9%
Neutral1270.6%
Bearish423.5%
Antero Midstream Corporation · AM · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Antero Midstream grows EBITDA and free cash flow; power demand remains an option
The quarter’s higher EBITDA, stronger free cash flow and reduced leverage support a positive operating picture. The next-year case also depends on whether emerging in-basin power demand becomes executable projects; management described those opportunities as under discussion, not secured growth.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$10.14B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.24
Consensus $0.25
EPS surprise
-4.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$312.5M
Consensus $292.5M
Revenue surprise
+6.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.0%
Up to 20 sessions
AMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AM FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AM fall 0.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in AM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AM after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 10% year over year to $281 million, while free cash flow after dividends increased 94% to $78 million. Leverage declined to 2.7x. Management discussed a first dry-gas Marcellus pad in more than a decade and a potential behind-the-meter power project at Sherwood. The supplied analysis does not identify a new guidance update.
Guidance delta
No new guidance was provided in the supplied Q3 transcript analysis. The prior-quarter analysis reported that FY2025 guidance had been raised; this Q3 analysis does not indicate a further change.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA increased 10% year over year to $281 million, and free cash flow after dividends rose 94% to $78 million.
- Leverage improved to 2.7x; the analysis notes a Moody’s upgrade and refinancing of 2027 notes to 2033 at a 5.75% coupon.
- Q3 capital investment was $51 million, bringing year-to-date spending to 75% of the 2025 budget, focused on water assets and dry-gas capacity.
- Data-center and power-related demand could create additional in-basin opportunities, but the discussed behind-the-meter project remains prospective.
Management priorities
- Advance Marcellus development and assess the new dry-gas pad as a proof of concept.
- Expand water infrastructure to support potential power-related projects.
- Balance debt paydown with share repurchases, described in the analysis as roughly an even split.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$21.47Previous close
$12Low
$20.21Average
$25High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Nov 12, 2025 |
| TPH Energy Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 12, 2024 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2023 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 18, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 26, 2022 |
| JonesTrading | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 9, 2021 |
| Tudor Pickering | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 26, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Mitsubishi UFJ | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $21.47. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.36 | +16.4% | Sep 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $22 | $21.04 | +2.5% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Ned Baramov | $24 | $21.97 | +11.8% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.46 | +11.8% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $21.7 | +7.1% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $17.63 | -6.8% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $16.67 | -20.8% | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $14.5 | $14.61 | -32.5% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $12.5 | $12.24 | -41.8% | Oct 24, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $11.5 | $12.18 | -46.4% | Oct 10, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $11.2 | -44.1% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $9.95 | -39.5% | Apr 28, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAntero Midstream Corporation primarily owns, operates, and expands vital midstream energy infrastructure. Its operations are divided into two key divisions: Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling. The Gathering and Processing segment involves a comprehensive network of pipelines and compressor stations that are crucial for collecting and treating natural gas output from Antero Resources' wells situated across West Virginia and Ohio. Meanwhile, the Water Handling segment focuses on supplying fresh water, supported by its array of pumping stations, water storage, and blending facilities. Established in 2013, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Denver, Colorado.
Historical context
All AM earningsEnergy peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX Chevron Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.4% | +1.8% | Chevron posts strong Q3 as production, cash flow and AI value rise |
| XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.7% | +2.2% | ExxonMobil Highlights Refining, LNG and Cash Returns in Q3 |
| IMO Imperial Oil Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.4% | +5.5% | Imperial Oil: downstream strength and low-carbon growth lead Q3 |
| CCJ Cameco Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -101.4% | -7.9% | Cameco keeps nuclear-growth thesis intact as Key Lake outage weighs |
| BP BP p.l.c. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +22.6% | +0.1% | BP Q3: Strong profit, lower debt, safety risks persist |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.5% | -1.4% | First Solar: Margin gains offset lower volume outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T12:10:42.927410+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T12:10:42.924363+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.