Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish1840.0%
Neutral2351.1%
Bearish48.9%
The Allstate Corporation · ALL · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Allstate Beats EPS by 46% on Strong Underwriting, but Revenue Misses; Shares Drift Lower
Allstate delivered a substantial Q1 2026 earnings beat, with adjusted EPS of $10.65 exceeding the $7.31 estimate by 45.7%, driven by improved underwriting margins and a 9.8% rise in investment income to $938M. Reported revenue of $14.63B fell 2.9% short of the $15.07B consensus. The company expanded auto market share in 29 states and homeowners share in 41 states while completing a $1.5B buyback and launching a new $4B repurchase program. New initiatives include the ALLIE AI platform, a nationwide homeowners reinsurance program, and free identity protection for customers. The stock initially rose 2.3% post-earnings but subsequently drifted 5.1% lower, suggesting the market is weighing EPS strength against the revenue miss. At $275.36, shares trade approximately 6.5% above the analyst consensus target of $258.46.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$70.13B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$10.65
Consensus $7.31
EPS surprise
+45.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$14.62B
Consensus $15.07B
Revenue surprise
-2.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.1%
Up to 20 sessions
ALLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ALL FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ALL rise 2.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in ALL's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for ALL after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Adjusted EPS of $10.65 beat the $7.31 estimate by 45.7%, driven by improved underwriting margins and a 9.8% rise in investment income to $938M. Revenue of $14.63B missed the $15.07B estimate by 2.9%, tempering bottom-line optimism. Combined ratios improved to 82% (property-liability) and 83.5% (homeowners). Capital returns accelerated with $881M returned to shareholders, a $1.5B buyback completed, and a new $4B program launched. New initiatives announced: ALLIE AI ecosystem, nationwide homeowners reinsurance, and free identity protection for customers.
Guidance delta
Management did not provide formal forward guidance during the call. The discussion centered on strategic initiatives — market share expansion, AI deployment, and reinsurance — rather than explicit numerical targets.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue grew 3% to $16.9 billion and adjusted EPS reached $10.65.
- Combined ratios improved across the portfolio, with property-liability at 82% and homeowners at 83.5%.
- Auto market share rose in 29 states and homeowners share grew in 41 states, outpacing vehicle registrations.
- Investment income increased 9.8% to $938 million as the investment book grew 24% in value.
- Shareholder returns were strong: $881 million returned, completion of a $1.5 billion buyback, and launch of a new $4 billion program.
Management priorities
- Continue expanding market share in auto and homeowners using the pricing-analytics-operations 'Rubik's Cube' framework.
- Roll out Custom 360 and other bundled products to additional states.
- Scale the ALLIE AI platform and agentic AI for cost reduction and agent productivity.
- Deploy capital to organic growth, technology investments, and potential strategic acquisitions.
- Accelerate share repurchase program while maintaining a strong dividend.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$249.83Current
$119Low
$236.9Average
$319High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Aug 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2026 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 11, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| CFRA | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 21, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 20, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Aug 17, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 13, 2021 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 15, 2019 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 9, 2018 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 2, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 8, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 19, 2017 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 4, 2016 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2015 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 21, 2015 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 4, 2015 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 1, 2014 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2013 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 27, 2012 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $249.83. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $252.21 | +20.1% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $257.21 | +18.9% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Kevin Heal | $238 | $257.62 | -4.7% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $267.77 | +6.1% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $266.31 | +26.1% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $271.07 | +10.1% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $280 | $275.11 | +12.1% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $275.11 | +0.1% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $264.59 | +20.1% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $226 | $264.59 | -9.5% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $248.55 | +10.1% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Atlantic Equities | Analyst unavailable | $319 | $240.55 | +27.7% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $250.35 | +4.5% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $240 | $250.59 | -3.9% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $242 | $249.27 | -3.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $251.17 | +8.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $213 | $248.37 | -14.7% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $248.04 | +20.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $240 | $250.33 | -3.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $264 | $250.33 | +5.7% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $268 | $217.26 | +7.3% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $260 | $213.61 | +4.1% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $281 | $207.55 | +12.5% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $207.55 | -4.7% | Feb 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $228 | $212.13 | -8.7% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $197.65 | +2.1% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $208.66 | -10.7% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $207.27 | -9.1% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $208.97 | -9.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $215 | $211.69 | -13.9% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $254 | $211.69 | +1.7% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $240 | $212.65 | -3.9% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $213.06 | +0.1% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $233 | $214.65 | -6.7% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $209.82 | -7.9% | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $205.55 | -19.1% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $198 | $192.28 | -20.7% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $197 | $200.17 | -21.1% | May 6, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $250 | $200.25 | +0.1% | May 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $187 | $186.04 | -25.1% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $214 | $195.51 | -14.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $233 | $195.51 | -6.7% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $216 | $184.91 | -13.5% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $220 | $187.84 | -11.9% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $175 | $178.11 | -30.0% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $196 | $178.11 | -21.5% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $200 | $180.95 | -19.9% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $177 | $171.03 | -29.2% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $217 | $169.02 | -13.1% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $205 | $176.82 | -17.9% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $191 | $176.69 | -23.5% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $188 | $173.01 | -24.7% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $190 | $169.84 | -23.9% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $131.68 | -58.4% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $131.53 | -44.8% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $140.01 | -38.8% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $166 | $140.36 | -33.6% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $134.26 | -45.2% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $188 | $121.39 | -24.7% | Sep 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $131.18 | -44.0% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $141.13 | -41.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $165 | $141.8 | -34.0% | Mar 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $145 | $125.88 | -42.0% | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $142 | $125.68 | -43.2% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $122 | $121.54 | -51.2% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Barclays | Tracy Benguigui | $119 | $121.54 | -52.4% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Phil Stefano | $131 | $134 | -47.6% | May 13, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Kevin Heal | $155 | $131.05 | -38.0% | May 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ALL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a comprehensive suite of property, casualty, and other insurance offerings throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are structured across four primary business segments: Allstate Protection; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Run-off Property-Liability. The Allstate Protection segment delivers a wide array of personal and commercial insurance solutions. This includes standard private passenger auto and homeowners policies, as well as specialized vehicle coverage for motorcycles, trailers, motor homes, and off-road vehicles. Additional personal lines encompass renter, condominium, landlord, boat, umbrella, manufactured home, and stand-alone scheduled personal property policies. Commercial lines products are also available, marketed under the Allstate and Encompass brand names. The Protection Services division focuses on consumer protection and related financial services.…
Financial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.2% | -1.2% | The Hartford Beats on Q2 Core Earnings, Divests Hartford Funds, Expands Buyback to $4.2B |
| AXP American Express Company | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.7% | -4.3% | AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance Raised |
| GL Globe Life Inc. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -1.6% | -7.0% | Globe Life Q2: Net Income Up 20%, EPS Guidance Raised on AI and Reinsurance Initiatives |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.0% | -4.8% | Huntington Bancshares Q2 2026: Strong Organic Growth, EPS Miss on Deposit Cost Pressure |
| AMP Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.4% | -1.3% | Ameriprise Q2 2026: Revenue Up 13%, EPS Beats on Record AUM and AI-Driven Productivity |
| NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.7% | -0.5% | Nasdaq Q2: Revenue Up 15%, EPS Beats by 9%, Index AUM Crosses $1 Trillion |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
- CASYFY2027 Q1 · September 8, 2026+8.7% EPS-14.2% move
Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T14:52:15.725514+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T14:52:15.722750+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.