The Allstate Corporation · ALL · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

Allstate: Growth initiatives advance, catastrophe losses remain a risk

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: Allstate is showing growth in new Property-Liability business and improved expense efficiency, but catastrophe exposure, retention, cost pressure, and reinsurance economics remain important tests of durability.

Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services $57.65B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $3.76
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $16.36B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -0.6% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -1.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.4% Up to 20 sessions
ALLSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis adds a $2 billion Employer Voluntary Benefits business sale, a $1.5 billion increase in reinsurance limit to $9.5 billion of single-event protection, and unusually high catastrophe losses tied to California wildfires. It also reports 27% year-over-year growth in new Property-Liability business and a 6.7-point improvement in the adjusted expense ratio.

Guidance delta

No guidance update was provided in the supplied transcript analysis.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis reports Q1 2025 revenue growth of 7.8% to $16.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.53.
  • New Property-Liability business rose 27% year over year, supported by expanded distribution and new affordable auto products.
  • The adjusted expense ratio improved by 6.7 points through digitization and cost reductions.
  • Catastrophe losses were elevated, particularly from California wildfires, while $1.1 billion of reinsurance recoveries partly offset the impact.
  • The company continued shareholder returns through a $1 dividend and a $1.5 billion share-repurchase program.

Management priorities

  • Expand affordable, simple, connected auto insurance into remaining U.S. states.
  • Increase homeowners coverage in new markets and continue bundling initiatives.
  • Expand protection-plan distribution through retailer and carrier partnerships.
  • Continue investing in the S.A.V.E. customer-experience program to support retention.
  • Maintain and potentially accelerate the share-repurchase program.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ALL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3.94 Q1 '24 actual $5.13, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.28 Q2 '24 actual $1.61, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.36 Q3 '24 actual $3.91, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.25 Q2 '25 actual $5.94, beat Q3 '25 estimate $7.67 Q3 '25 actual $11.17, beat Q4 '25 estimate $9.83 Q4 '25 actual $14.31, beat Q1 '26 estimate $7.31 Q1 '26 actual $10.65, beat Q2 '26 estimate $6.06 Q2 '26 actual $8.99, beat Q3 '26 estimate $6.48 Q4 '26 estimate $8.65 Q1 '27 estimate $7.53
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish1840.0%
Neutral2351.1%
Bearish48.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$223.95Previous close
$119Low
$237.9Average
$319High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 7, 2026
Barclays Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 7, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 6, 2026
Citigroup Sell SellMaintainOct 2, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 1, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $223.95. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$295$224.27 +31.7%Oct 7, 2026
BarclaysAlex Scott$221$224.27 -1.3%Oct 7, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$266$224.27 +18.8%Oct 7, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$250$221.86 +11.6%Oct 1, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$300$252.21 +34.0%Sep 18, 2026
See 67 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a comprehensive suite of property, casualty, and other insurance offerings throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are structured across four primary business segments: Allstate Protection; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Run-off Property-Liability. The Allstate Protection segment delivers a wide array of personal and commercial insurance solutions. This includes standard private passenger auto and homeowners policies, as well as specialized vehicle coverage for motorcycles, trailers, motor homes, and off-road vehicles. Additional personal lines encompass renter, condominium, landlord, boat, umbrella, manufactured home, and stand-alone scheduled personal property policies. Commercial lines products are also available, marketed under the Allstate and Encompass brand names. The Protection Services division focuses on consumer protection and related financial services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-16T00:02:45.914612+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T09:40:43.317149+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T09:40:43.314177+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.