Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold41 ratings
Bullish1536.6%
Neutral2561.0%
Bearish12.4%
American International Group, Inc. · AIG · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
AIG Q2 2025: EPS jumps 56% on underwriting gains; capital returns accelerate
AIG's Q2 2025 results show improving underwriting profitability, with adjusted EPS up 56% YoY and lower combined ratios, backed by rate increases in North America casualty and commercial lines. Management is confident, has materially accelerated capital returns ($4.5B YTD, buyback pacing at the high end of the range), and is scaling GenAI-enabled underwriting, supported by fresh S&P and Moody's upgrades. The stock traded down about 3% after the print, but essentially in line with the market move, and subsequently drifted ~3.4% higher. Watch items remain property rate pressure, catastrophe frequency/severity, casualty social inflation, and the pace of expense-ratio gains beyond the first half.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$39.67B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.81
Consensus $1.60
EPS surprise
+13.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.04B
Consensus $6.78B
Revenue surprise
+3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-3.1%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.4%
Up to 20 sessions
AIGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AIG FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AIG fall 3.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in AIG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for AIG after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with Q1 2025 (8% net premium growth, 30.5% expense ratio, ~$2.5B returned to shareholders), Q2 2025 showed a clear step up: adjusted EPS rose 56% YoY on a 35% gain in adjusted after-tax income, $4.5B had been returned YTD with buybacks pacing at the high end of the $5-6B range, AIG Next achieved over $530M of annualized savings ahead of schedule, and AIG's insurance units received their first S&P and Moody's upgrades since 2013 and 1990, respectively. GenAI moved from pilot to expanded deployment, including a new underwriter assistance tool delivering a reported 4-fold increase in submission ingestion.
Guidance delta
maintained
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS up 56% YoY and combined ratios improved, signaling stronger underwriting profitability
- Capital returns accelerated: $4.5B returned YTD, with the buyback pacing at the high end of the $5-6B range
- AIG Next delivered over $530M of annual run-rate expense savings, ahead of schedule
- GenAI underwriting assistant expands to additional lines in H2 2025 and to a broader rollout in 2026
- Property underwriting remained resilient despite rate pressure, supported by low-attachment reinsurance
- First rating upgrades from S&P and Moody's for AIG's insurance units since 2013 and 1990
Management priorities
- Roll out GenAI underwriter assistance to additional lines in Q3 2025 and across all North America Commercial, UK and EMEA lines in 2026
- Drive further expense reductions via AIG Next and parent expense push-down
- Maintain disciplined capital management, with potential additional share repurchases or dividends if growth lags
- Expand specialty underwriting capacity through reinsurance partnerships
- Sustain property profitability via layered placement and reinsurance optimization
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$74.23Current
$50Low
$83.28Average
$98High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 13, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 13, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 4, 2020 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 6, 2020 |
| Autonomous Research | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2020 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 15, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 27, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 27, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 9, 2018 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 4, 2016 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 30, 2016 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 30, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 26, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 19, 2016 |
| Avondale Partners | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Nov 4, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 3, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 13, 2014 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 5, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 1, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $74.23. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $85 | $78.78 | +14.5% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $80 | $79 | +7.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $79.62 | +19.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $92 | $79.62 | +23.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $80.47 | +32.0% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $79.39 | +18.6% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $80 | $74.8 | +7.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $83 | $76.84 | +11.8% | Mar 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $79.07 | +23.9% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $78.76 | +9.1% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $86 | $78.27 | +15.9% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $72.29 | +11.8% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $77 | $72.29 | +3.7% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $77.07 | +9.1% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $83 | $77.07 | +11.8% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $86.03 | +28.0% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $84 | $86.3 | +13.2% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $77.28 | +18.6% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Rowland Mayor | $85 | $75.11 | +14.5% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $75.18 | +13.2% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $80.71 | +28.0% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $94 | $84.05 | +26.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $84 | $83.4 | +13.2% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $79.64 | +18.6% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $84 | $78.48 | +13.2% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $82 | $83.05 | +10.5% | May 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $98 | $87.72 | +32.0% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $81.31 | +25.3% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $87 | $75.39 | +17.2% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $88 | $74.63 | +18.6% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $82 | $73.8 | +10.5% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $90 | $76.69 | +21.2% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $82 | $79.23 | +10.5% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $90 | $74.57 | +21.2% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $78 | $74.49 | +5.1% | Jun 26, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $82 | $78.74 | +10.5% | May 16, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $90 | $78.74 | +21.2% | May 16, 2024 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $86 | $79.44 | +15.9% | May 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $89 | $79.43 | +19.9% | May 13, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $89 | $72.99 | +19.9% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $91 | $77.92 | +22.6% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $87 | $76.62 | +17.2% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $83 | $66.46 | +11.8% | Dec 19, 2023 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $63 | $56.55 | -15.1% | Oct 7, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jimmy Bhullar | $55 | $47.44 | -25.9% | Jul 1, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $50 | $49.21 | -32.6% | May 11, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $52 | $46.07 | -29.9% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on AIG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAmerican International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a global insurance provider, delivering a broad spectrum of insurance solutions to commercial, institutional, and individual clients across North America and worldwide. Its General Insurance division encompasses a wide range of coverages, including general liability, environmental protection, commercial auto liability, workers' compensation, casualty, and crisis management. This segment also covers property risks for commercial, industrial, and energy sectors, with further specialized offerings such as aerospace, political risk, trade credit, portfolio solutions, crop, and marine insurance policies. Additionally, AIG supplies professional liability coverage for various business operations and potential hazards, such as directors and officers (D&O), mergers and acquisitions (M&A), fidelity bonds, employment practices, fiduciary liability, cyber risk, kidnap and ransom, and errors and omissions (E&O) insurance.…
Historical context
All AIG earningsFinancial Services peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
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| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
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Get the AIG recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T15:41:07.743321+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T15:41:07.740517+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.