Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold33 ratings
Bullish1545.5%
Neutral1545.4%
Bearish39.1%
AGNC Investment Corp. · AGNCP · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
AGNC Q4 2025: MBS backdrop supported results, but spread and dividend risks remain
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: agency MBS demand, lower short-term rates, hedging and liquidity supported AGNC's outlook, while spread stability, prepayments, leverage and dividend coverage are the key tests for durability.
Reported After market closeNASDAQReal Estate
$10.43B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.35
Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise
-5.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$944.0M
Consensus $940.8M
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
0.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
AGNCPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AGNCP FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AGNCP's +0.0% move after FY2025 Q4 earnings?What changed in AGNCP's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AGNCP after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The analysis highlighted a $200 billion GSE MBS purchase announcement, the Federal Reserve's shift toward reserve management and standing-repo enhancements, and $356 million of common-equity issuance at a premium. It also noted a 70% swap-based hedge mix and lower leverage.
Guidance delta
Maintained; no quantitative guidance change was identified.
Key takeaways
- The analysis describes a favorable agency MBS backdrop, supported by lower short-term rates and increased GSE purchases.
- Management highlighted a swap-heavy hedge mix, 7.2x leverage and $7.6 billion of cash plus unencumbered MBS liquidity.
- The outlook remained positive, but spread widening, faster prepayments and policy changes remain material risks.
- Reported revenue was above the supplied estimate while EPS was below it.
Management priorities
- Maintain a swap-heavy hedge mix and monitor hedge duration.
- Deploy capital when spread economics are favorable.
- Pursue potentially accretive equity issuance.
- Monitor GSE and Federal Reserve policy for effects on spread stability.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 25, 2023 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2023 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 15, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2022 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2021 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 24, 2020 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 23, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 15, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 7, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 2, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 29, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 5, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 10, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 15, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 14, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Track every rating change on AGNCP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAGNC Investment Corp. functions as a U.S.-based Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). Its primary investments include residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), the principal and interest payments of which are guaranteed by either U.S. government agencies or government-sponsored enterprises. The firm largely finances these holdings through collateralized lending arrangements, specifically repurchase agreements. Having elected for REIT tax status under the 1986 Internal Revenue Code, the company is exempt from federal corporate income taxes, provided it distributes a minimum of 90% of its taxable earnings to shareholders. Established in 2008, AGNC Investment Corp. operates from its headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland, having changed its name from American Capital Agency Corp. in September 2016.
Historical context
All AGNCP earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNCZ: Q3 loss highlights rate volatility and hedging |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC Q3: Rate Volatility Drove a -12.7% Economic Return |
| AGNCO AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while defending agency MBS fundamentals |
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC: Attractive MBS spreads offset a difficult quarter |
| AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +4.1% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while preserving balance-sheet flexibility |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- HALFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+2.7% EPS+1.8% move
- RTXFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+27.0% EPS+0.6% move
- MMMFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+5.0% EPS+5.8% move
- GPCFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+1.5% EPS-5.1% move
- KEY-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
- KEY-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
Missed on EPS
- AGNCZFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCLFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- AGNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS0.0% move
- AGNCMFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- STLDFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-4.0% EPS-0.3% move
Get the AGNCP recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T09:20:43.574258+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.