Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1131.4%
Neutral2160.0%
Bearish38.6%
AGNC Investment Corp. · AGNC · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
AGNC: Q1 spread volatility meets stronger MBS demand
The quarter presents a mixed picture: spread volatility hurt returns, but liquidity, demand, funding conditions, and new capital support a potentially more flexible portfolio. The evidence is supportive of resilience, not conclusive proof of sustained earnings growth.
Reported After market closeNASDAQReal Estate
$10.43B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.42
Consensus $0.36
EPS surprise
+16.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.05B
Consensus $988.6M
Revenue surprise
+6.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+1.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.1%
Up to 20 sessions
AGNCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AGNC FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AGNC rise 1.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in AGNC's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for AGNC after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the focus shifted from strong returns and tightening spreads to a negative economic return amid spread widening. Management nevertheless emphasized improved supply-demand conditions, stronger funding opportunities, and additional flexibility from the equity raise.
Guidance delta
No formal guidance was provided. Management plans to adjust leverage and portfolio construction as spreads, rates, GSE activity, and funding conditions evolve.
Key takeaways
- Management described a negative 1.6% economic return on tangible equity as Agency MBS spreads widened.
- Liquidity remained solid, while a $401 million equity raise added capital for potential deployment.
- Management highlighted reduced MBS issuance, stronger money-manager demand, and possible regulatory support for bank demand.
Management priorities
- Opportunistically purchase low-coupon specified pools and rotate toward higher coupons as inflows evolve.
- Maintain a positive duration gap for prepayment protection in a potential down-rate scenario.
- Deploy raised capital into high-return assets while adjusting leverage to market conditions.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$8.8Current
$8Low
$10.68Average
$13High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Jones Trading | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2026 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2024 |
| JonesTrading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 16, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 14, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 16, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 29, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 5, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 11, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 16, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 3, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $8.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $8.68 | +13.6% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $10.79 | +36.4% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $12 | $10.97 | +36.4% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $11 | $10.97 | +25.0% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $13 | $11.82 | +47.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $11.57 | +30.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $10 | $11.07 | +13.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $10.5 | $9.99 | +19.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $10 | $8.61 | +13.6% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Kevin Barker | $11 | $10.6 | +25.0% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $12 | $10.56 | +36.4% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $11 | $10.04 | +25.0% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Mark Devries | $8 | $9.01 | -9.1% | Dec 11, 2023 |
| KBW | Bose George | $10.28 | $10.69 | +16.8% | Dec 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $11.11 | +47.7% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $11.41 | +30.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AGNC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAGNC Investment Corp. functions as a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT). The firm primarily concentrates its investments on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). A defining feature of these securities is that their principal and interest payments are secured by guarantees from either U.S. government-sponsored entities or federal government agencies. To fund these investments, AGNC largely depends on secured borrowings, specifically organized as repurchase agreements. The company has opted for REIT tax status under the 1986 Internal Revenue Code, which exempts it from federal corporate income taxes, contingent on distributing a minimum of 90% of its taxable profits to its shareholders. Originally established in 2008, the entity, with its headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland, operated as American Capital Agency Corp. until it adopted its current name, AGNC Investment Corp., in September 2016.
Historical context
All AGNC earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC: Attractive MBS spreads offset a difficult quarter |
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | AGNCZ: Q3 loss reflects rate shock as hedges and capital preserve flexibility |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | AGNC faces rate volatility but sees opportunity in Agency MBS |
| AGNCO AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | AGNC’s Q3 return fell as rate volatility hit agency MBS |
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | AGNC faces rate-driven losses but sees attractive agency MBS opportunities |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ALLYFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+1.5% EPS+1.0% move
- GMFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+0.3% EPS-6.8% move
- EFXFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+2.7% EPS+11.3% move
- HASFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+55.9% EPS+11.2% move
- SYF-PAFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.7% EPS— move
- SYFFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.7% EPS-1.2% move
Missed on EPS
- AGNCMFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- STLDFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-4.0% EPS-0.3% move
- AGNCFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+4.1% move
- HDBFY2027 Q2 · October 17, 2026-2.0% EPS— move
- TFC-PIFY2026 Q3 · October 16, 2026-50.9% EPS— move
- TFC-POFY2026 Q3 · October 16, 2026-50.9% EPS— move
Get the AGNC recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T03:10:42.466711+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-21T03:10:42.464550+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.