Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1131.4%
Neutral2160.0%
Bearish38.6%
AGNC Investment Corp. · AGNC · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
AGNC: Attractive MBS Spreads, With Dividend and Convexity Risks
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive view of AGNC’s agency-MBS positioning: elevated spreads, liquidity, and potential policy support provide a foundation for returns, but the case depends on spread durability, disciplined leverage, and dividend sustainability.
Reported Before market openNASDAQReal Estate
$10.48B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.40
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $436.7M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.2%
Event window
SPY move
-2.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+12.1%
Up to 20 sessions
AGNCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AGNC FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AGNC's -2.2% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in AGNC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for AGNC after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the discussion placed more emphasis on spread widening, swap-spread behavior, and convexity risk following the Rocket Mortgage–Mr. Cooper merger. Management continued to favor opportunistic capital deployment and a confident outlook, while considering a more balanced Treasury-and-swap hedge mix.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a change in formal guidance.
Key takeaways
- Management described agency MBS spreads as elevated and attractive relative to Treasuries and swaps.
- AGNC emphasized liquidity, low-to-moderate leverage, and opportunistic capital deployment.
- Potential bank-regulatory relief and a more permanent government role in housing finance were cited as possible demand catalysts.
- The analysis also flags book-value, spread, prepayment, and convexity risks.
Management priorities
- Deploy capital opportunistically in specified pools and TBA positions.
- Consider a more balanced Treasury-and-swap hedge mix as conditions evolve.
- Maintain low-to-moderate leverage while monitoring spread dynamics.
- Monitor prepayment and convexity risk in the changing mortgage market.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Beat
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$8.84Previous close
$8Low
$10.53Average
$13High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Jones Trading | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2026 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2024 |
| JonesTrading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 16, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 14, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 16, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 29, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 5, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 11, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 16, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 3, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $8.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $8.88 | +13.1% | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $9 | $8.8 | +1.8% | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $8.68 | +13.1% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $10.79 | +35.7% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $12 | $10.97 | +35.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $11 | $10.97 | +24.4% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $13 | $11.82 | +47.1% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $11.57 | +30.1% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $10 | $11.07 | +13.1% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $10.5 | $9.99 | +18.8% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $10 | $8.61 | +13.1% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Kevin Barker | $11 | $10.6 | +24.4% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $12 | $10.56 | +35.7% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $11 | $10.04 | +24.4% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Mark Devries | $8 | $9.01 | -9.5% | Dec 11, 2023 |
| KBW | Bose George | $10.28 | $10.69 | +16.3% | Dec 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $11.11 | +47.1% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $11.41 | +30.1% | Apr 25, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AGNC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAGNC Investment Corp. functions as a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT). The firm primarily concentrates its investments on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). A defining feature of these securities is that their principal and interest payments are secured by guarantees from either U.S. government-sponsored entities or federal government agencies. To fund these investments, AGNC largely depends on secured borrowings, specifically organized as repurchase agreements. The company has opted for REIT tax status under the 1986 Internal Revenue Code, which exempts it from federal corporate income taxes, contingent on distributing a minimum of 90% of its taxable profits to its shareholders. Originally established in 2008, the entity, with its headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland, operated as American Capital Agency Corp. until it adopted its current name, AGNC Investment Corp., in September 2016.
Historical context
All AGNC earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RITM-PD Rithm Capital Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +10.2% | — | Rithm highlights servicing, inflows and technology-led efficiency |
| CBRE CBRE Group, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.6% | -2.5% | CBRE: Infrastructure Growth Offsets Capital-Markets Headwinds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the AGNC recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-10T09:55:02.670529+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T10:10:44.326838+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T10:10:44.324132+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.