Affirm Holdings, Inc. · AFRM · FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026

Affirm pairs strong growth outlook with underwriting and credit watchpoints

Affirm's reported growth outlook and demand support continued expansion, while durability still needs evidence: management highlighted underwriting and funding advantages, alongside risks from provisions, consumer credit and fraud.

Why did AFRM rise 1.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2027 Q1?

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Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services $20.79B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.47 Consensus $0.38
EPS surprise +23.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.26B Consensus $1.21B
Revenue surprise +4.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +1.9% Event window
SPY move +1.1% Same window
Abnormal move +0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 0.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
AFRMSPY benchmark

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Why did AFRM rise 1.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2027 Q1?What changed in AFRM's guidance and outlook in FY2027 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for AFRM after FY2027 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management described Q1 GMV growth of 34% and set a full-year growth floor of at least 30%. Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current discussion gives greater emphasis to transformer-based underwriting, Edge pilots, brand-sponsored promotions and agentic commerce.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained. The current transcript analysis says management set a full-year growth floor of at least 30%.

Key takeaways

  • The transcript analysis reports Q1 GMV growth of 34% and a full-year growth floor of at least 30%.
  • Management said its transformer-based underwriting model is intended to increase approvals without incremental losses; this remains a management claim, not independently established here.
  • More than 70% of on-balance-sheet funding is fixed-rate, according to the transcript analysis.
  • Provision expense rose modestly in connection with experimental loan keep-ons, while management is advancing Edge, card features and merchant promotions.

Management priorities

  • Launch Edge pilots with banking partners.
  • Expand card financing programs and benefits and scale brand-sponsored promotions.
  • Deploy the transformer underwriting model and related AI improvements.
  • Expand internationally and deepen service-vertical merchant integrations.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AFRM EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.08 Q2 '24 actual $0.04, miss Q3 '24 estimate $-0.70 Q3 '24 actual $-0.43, beat Q4 '24 estimate $-0.48 Q4 '24 actual $-0.14, beat Q1 '25 estimate $-0.34 Q1 '25 actual $-0.31, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.12 Q4 '25 actual $0.20, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.11 Q1 '26 actual $0.23, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.28 Q2 '26 actual $0.37, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.17 Q3 '26 actual $0.30, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.35 Q4 '26 actual $4.62, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.38 Q1 '27 actual $0.47, beat Q2 '27 estimate $0.55 Q3 '27 estimate $0.44 Q4 '27 estimate $0.59 Q1 '28 estimate $0.60
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy38 ratings
Bullish2873.7%
Neutral1026.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$67.75Current
$6Low
$80.33Average
$115High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 26, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 23, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainOct 13, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 6, 2026
Freedom Capital Markets Buy BuyMaintainOct 1, 2026
Show 33 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $67.74. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
MonnessAnalyst unavailable$90$70.08 +32.9%Oct 26, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$103$78.63 +52.0%Oct 13, 2026
NeedhamAnalyst unavailable$85$72.09 +25.5%Sep 16, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$90$71.44 +32.9%Sep 14, 2026
Loop Capital MarketsReginald Smith$105$72.08 +55.0%Sep 8, 2026
See 97 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Affirm Holdings, Inc. provides a digital and mobile-first commerce platform that operates across the United States and Canada. This platform offers consumers a point-of-sale financing solution, delivers various tools for merchants, and includes a dedicated mobile application for users. Leveraging its payment network and partnerships with originating banks, the company enables customers to spread the cost of their purchases over time, with payment terms ranging from a single month up to forty-eight months. By June 30, 2021, approximately 29,000 merchants had integrated Affirm's services, representing a diverse array of businesses from small enterprises and large corporations to direct-to-consumer brands and traditional physical stores. These businesses span numerous industries, including sporting goods, home furnishings, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. Affirm was founded in 2012 and is based in San Francisco, California.

Historical context

All AFRM earnings
+0.3%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026-5.0%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026+10.6%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
MET-PA MetLife, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +2.9% — Record quarter, with investment income and broad segment growth supporting results
MET-PE MetLife, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +2.9% — MetLife posts record Q3 earnings as investment income and expense control support growth
GPN Global Payments Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 0.0% -1.2% Global Payments grows revenue and raises Worldpay synergy target

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-06T15:07:15.801314+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T15:10:48.703211+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T15:10:48.700530+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.