Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy37 ratings
Bullish2773.0%
Neutral1027.0%
Bearish00.0%
Affirm Holdings, Inc. · AFRM · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026
Affirm posts record Q3, beats on EPS and revenue; stock dips 5% on credit, funding concerns
Affirm delivered a record fiscal Q3 that beat both top- and bottom-line estimates, supported by stable credit quality, a tightening funding environment and AI-driven underwriting and development gains. Yet the stock sold off roughly 5% in the next session and now trades near $71.52 versus a consensus target of $96.42, implying the market is pricing in slower growth or credit/funding risk rather than the current beat. The bull case rests on continued Pay-in-X and Card scaling, merchant growth (count up 44%) and durable low-cost capital; the key risk is whether favorable credit and funding conditions persist into a more normalized consumer and capital-markets environment.
Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services
$23.97B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.30
Consensus $0.17
EPS surprise
+76.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.04B
Consensus $995.3M
Revenue surprise
+4.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-5.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.3%
Up to 20 sessions
AFRMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AFRM FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AFRM fall 5.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in AFRM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AFRM after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Affirm reported record fiscal Q3 revenue of $1.04B (vs. $995.3M estimate, +4.4%) and EPS of $0.30 (vs. $0.17 estimate, +76%), with guidance raised modestly for the fiscal fourth quarter. Funding spreads tightened roughly 125 basis points year over year with oversubscribed deals, and the company emphasized AI tooling that roughly doubled development velocity at a low single-digit-million-dollar quarterly cost. Despite the beat, the stock fell about 5% on the following session on elevated volume as investors weighed credit stability, seasonality and funding-market dependence.
Guidance delta
raised
Key takeaways
- Record fiscal Q3 driven by strong merchant and consumer engagement
- Credit quality stable: delinquencies unchanged, allowance rate driven by seasonality and higher prepayments
- Funding environment highly constructive, enabling lower-cost capital and oversubscribed financing
- AI/ML improving underwriting, product targeting and development efficiency
- Affirm Card and Pay in X scaling, with merchant count up 44% and app engagement the focus
Management priorities
- More Big Nothing merchant events with refined data-driven targeting
- Expansion into new international markets with dedicated investment
- Further integration of AI tools to accelerate product development
- Enhancements to the Affirm app and Adaptive Checkout to lift consumer engagement
- Scaling the Affirm Card and exploring additional consumer financial services
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$71.52Current
$6Low
$80.37Average
$115High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 26, 2025 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 5, 2023 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 9, 2023 |
| SMBC Nikko | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 26, 2022 |
| MoffettNathanson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $71.52. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $72.09 | +18.8% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $71.44 | +25.8% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Reginald Smith | $105 | $72.08 | +46.8% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $69.94 | +32.8% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $97 | $74.53 | +35.6% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $72.77 | +60.8% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $77.76 | +53.8% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $88 | $83.32 | +23.0% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $84.86 | +53.8% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $85.3 | +41.2% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $77.49 | +45.4% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $96 | $83.24 | +34.2% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $77.49 | +60.8% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Tim Chiodo | $90 | $77.49 | +25.8% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $77.49 | +14.7% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Rayna Kumar | $100 | $77.03 | +39.8% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $76.7 | +20.2% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Matthew Coad | $83 | $71.21 | +16.1% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Harshita Rawat | $100 | $74.72 | +39.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $79.84 | +39.8% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $81.93 | +14.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Will Nance | $106 | $81.28 | +48.2% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $83.62 | +35.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Bill Carcache | $103 | $81.79 | +44.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $77.66 | +46.8% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $79 | $64.01 | +10.5% | May 10, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $65.87 | +21.6% | May 8, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Koning | $70 | $66.2 | -2.1% | May 8, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $67.93 | +4.9% | May 8, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $62.84 | +4.9% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Bauch | $75 | $64.6 | +4.9% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $51.69 | -0.7% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Koning | $55 | $51.82 | -23.1% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Giuliano Bologna | $68 | $52.06 | -4.9% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $95 | $57.03 | +32.8% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $77 | $56.99 | +7.7% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $56.68 | +16.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | James Friedman | $100 | $59.42 | +39.8% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $59.42 | +16.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $59.42 | +9.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $76 | $61.99 | +6.3% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $68.71 | +39.8% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $85 | $68.71 | +18.8% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Matthew Coad | $85 | $65.69 | +18.8% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $74.49 | +24.4% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $74.83 | +41.2% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $108 | $82.22 | +51.0% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $79.99 | +25.8% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | David Scharf | $105 | $90.32 | +46.8% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $78.63 | -2.1% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $95 | $78.36 | +32.8% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Rayna Kumar | $80 | $68.9 | +11.9% | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Matthew Coad | $58 | $52.9 | -18.9% | Jun 2, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $47.95 | -3.5% | Mar 20, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $67 | $61.29 | -6.3% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $82 | $66.32 | +14.7% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bryan Keane | $75 | $66.32 | +4.9% | Dec 16, 2024 |
| BTIG | Vincent Caintic | $81 | $70.75 | +13.3% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bryan Keane | $35 | $42.12 | -51.1% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Wedbush | David Chiaverini | $45 | $49.26 | -37.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Andrew Bauch | $52 | $42.01 | -27.3% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $37 | $43.25 | -48.3% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| BTIG | Vincent Caintic | $68 | $38.6 | -4.9% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $54 | $44.67 | -24.5% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Kupferberg | $42 | $31.58 | -41.3% | Aug 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $20 | $31.88 | -72.0% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Kupferberg | $36 | $26.84 | -49.7% | Jul 30, 2024 |
| CFRA | Caydee Blankenship | $24 | $33.8 | -66.4% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $43 | $29.68 | -39.9% | May 24, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Fotheringham | $46 | $33.22 | -35.7% | May 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $41 | $31.06 | -42.7% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Andrew Bauch | $40 | $37.51 | -44.1% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Wedbush | David Chiaverini | $20 | $42.55 | -72.0% | Feb 9, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $24 | $24.92 | -66.4% | Nov 9, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $20 | $16.21 | -72.0% | Jul 11, 2023 |
| Stephens | Vincent Caintic | $6 | $12.43 | -91.6% | May 10, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Kevin Barker | $16 | $11.3 | -77.6% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $42 | $23.99 | -41.3% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $22.08 | -25.9% | Sep 7, 2022 |
| Stephens | Vincent Caintic | $18 | $24.4 | -74.8% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $24.57 | -37.1% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| SMBC Nikko | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $31.23 | -44.1% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $31.23 | -65.0% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $22 | $23.34 | -69.2% | Jul 10, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Kevin Barker | $28 | $23.34 | -60.9% | Jul 9, 2022 |
| Wedbush | David Chiaverini | $15 | $23.33 | -79.0% | Jun 8, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $50 | $25.24 | -30.1% | May 18, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $48 | $23.32 | -32.9% | May 16, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $22.23 | -55.3% | May 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $80 | $46.61 | +11.9% | Apr 3, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $79 | $36.75 | +10.5% | Mar 17, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Timothy Chiodo | $85 | $44.8 | +18.8% | Feb 15, 2022 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $45 | $58.68 | -37.1% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Kupferberg | $125 | $60.89 | +74.8% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Chris Brendler | $75 | $59.71 | +4.9% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $100 | $54.52 | +39.8% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $105 | $57.63 | +46.8% | Jan 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bryan Keane | $70 | $64.3 | -2.1% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Hal Goetsch | $72 | $64.3 | +0.7% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Matthew O'Neill | $93 | $57 | +30.0% | May 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on AFRM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAffirm Holdings, Inc. provides a digital and mobile-first commerce platform that operates across the United States and Canada. This platform offers consumers a point-of-sale financing solution, delivers various tools for merchants, and includes a dedicated mobile application for users. Leveraging its payment network and partnerships with originating banks, the company enables customers to spread the cost of their purchases over time, with payment terms ranging from a single month up to forty-eight months. By June 30, 2021, approximately 29,000 merchants had integrated Affirm's services, representing a diverse array of businesses from small enterprises and large corporations to direct-to-consumer brands and traditional physical stores. These businesses span numerous industries, including sporting goods, home furnishings, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. Affirm was founded in 2012 and is based in San Francisco, California.
Historical context
All AFRM earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
Get the AFRM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-26T00:21:11.503382+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-26T00:21:11.501119+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.