Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold32 ratings
Bullish928.1%
Neutral1856.3%
Bearish515.6%
Aflac Incorporated · AFL · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
AFL Q1 2026: Japan Sales Surge 25.5%, EPS $1.75 Misses Estimates
Aflac's Q1 2026 results were mixed: revenue of $4.35B beat estimates by 3.4%, but adjusted EPS of $1.75 missed the $1.79 consensus by 2.2%. The revenue beat was driven by a 25.5% surge in Japan sales from new product launches (Miraito cancer, Onsen Tallett medical), though underlying earned premiums in Japan remain flat. U.S. premium growth was modest at 2.9% with persistency at 79.3% and an improved benefit ratio of 47.2%. Management maintained guidance and expressed confidence, highlighting capital strength (ESR 227%, $3.4B liquidity) and $1.3B in shareholder returns. The market reaction was negative, with the stock declining 2.19% (abnormal -3.18% versus benchmark) on roughly 2x normal volume, consistent with investors focusing on the EPS miss and flat premium growth despite the headline sales beat.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$65.94B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationAflac Incorporated, operating through its various subsidiary companies, focuses on delivering supplementary health and life insurance policies. The firm's business activities are structured into two primary divisions: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In Japan, the company offers a diverse range of insurance products, including coverage for cancer, medical expenses, income support for nursing care, and the distinct GIFT plan. This segment also provides traditional whole and term life insurance, along with savings-oriented plans like WAYS and child endowment products. Meanwhile, the Aflac U.S.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.75
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
-2.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.35B
Consensus $4.20B
Revenue surprise
+3.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$128.67Current
$70Low
$106.21Average
$130High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 25, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2016 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 20, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 10, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Mar 1, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $128.67. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $108 | $121.99 | -16.1% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $112 | $121.44 | -13.0% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $121.27 | -3.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $130 | $117.86 | +1.0% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $125 | $117.3 | -2.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $104 | $112.88 | -19.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $116.21 | -23.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $111.32 | -20.7% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $113.07 | -11.4% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $107 | $113.2 | -16.8% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $110.19 | -21.5% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Wilma Burdis | $119 | $109.96 | -7.5% | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $111.76 | -6.7% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $111 | $114.69 | -13.7% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $108.81 | -19.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $110 | $111.9 | -14.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $102 | $112.93 | -20.7% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $113.1 | -2.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $113 | $105.66 | -12.2% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $105 | $102.28 | -18.4% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $98 | $104.36 | -23.8% | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $102 | $114.6 | -20.7% | Dec 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $122 | $112.82 | -5.2% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $90 | $109.69 | -30.1% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $115 | $109.07 | -10.6% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $114 | $103.92 | -11.4% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Wesley Carmichael | $90 | $101.21 | -30.1% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $100 | $100.44 | -22.3% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $108 | $102.36 | -16.1% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $84 | $88.93 | -34.7% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $100 | $89.16 | -22.3% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $95 | $84.36 | -26.2% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $90 | $85.86 | -30.1% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $87 | $83.57 | -32.4% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $69.66 | -45.6% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $73.28 | -39.4% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $70.23 | -44.0% | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $63.99 | -47.9% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $59 | $53.45 | -54.1% | Jul 15, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AFL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.2%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.1%
Up to 20 sessions
AFLSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Japan sales accelerated sharply (+25.5% YoY) driven by new product launches. U.S. premium growth was modest at 2.9%. The investment portfolio recorded $19M in loan charge-offs and $24M in real estate impairments, a notable development this quarter. Aflac Re Bermuda entered a strategic reinsurance transaction with Japan Post Insurance, a new milestone for the reinsurance franchise. Capital returns totaled $1.3B ($1B in share repurchases and $315M in dividends).
Guidance delta
Management maintained its existing outlook. The Japan premium target of approximately Y80 billion for 2026 was reaffirmed. No changes to benefit ratio guidance or earnings trajectory were indicated. Guidance sentiment: maintained.
Key takeaways
- Japan sales surged 25.5% YoY on new product launches (Miraito, Onsen Tallett), but underlying earned premiums remain flat, with a 2026 target of around Y80B.
- U.S. premium growth was 2.9% YoY, persistency held at 79.3%, and the benefit ratio improved to 47.2% with a 20.4% pretax margin.
- Capital strength is robust: regulatory ESR of 227% (243% including USP), leverage at 21.2%, $3.4B liquidity, with $1B in share repurchases and $315M in dividends.
- External reinsurance deals in Japan are currently small but viewed as a long-term growth lever for earnings and diversification.
- The investment portfolio saw $19M in loan charge-offs and $24M in real estate impairments, reflecting market pressures on investment income.
Management priorities
- Achieve Japan premium target of approximately Y80 billion in 2026.
- Expand the reinsurance platform in Japan with selective, larger deals.
- Invest in agent recruitment tools and conversion processes to revive core U.S. sales.
- Maintain dividend growth (43 consecutive years) and continued share repurchases.
- Monitor and manage capital deployment flexibly to support earnings growth and risk-adjusted ROE.
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T16:02:33.996067+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T16:02:33.993207+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.