Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold32 ratings
Bullish928.1%
Neutral1856.3%
Bearish515.6%
Aflac Incorporated · AFL · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Aflac: Japan growth and capital returns offset investment volatility
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: Japan product momentum, U.S. persistency and capital returns are supportive, while investment-income volatility, FX exposure and execution risks limit confidence in durable earnings growth.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$56.77B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.69
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.50B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
AFLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AFL FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AFL's -4.7% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in AFL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for AFL after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior analysis, the current analysis emphasizes accelerated Japan sales tied to Tsumitasu and Miraito, continued U.S. operating strength and $1.2 billion of stated shareholder returns in Q1. It also flags higher Japan technology expenses and ongoing volatility in FX and investment income.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a change to guidance.
Key takeaways
- Management’s current analysis highlights faster Japan sales, helped by Tsumitasu and the Miraito cancer product.
- U.S. performance was supported by improved persistency and group life, disability, and dental offerings.
- Capital returns remained a major priority, while FX, remeasurement effects, and investment income add volatility.
- The supplied scorecard does not include actual EPS or revenue, so no beat-or-miss conclusion is made.
Management priorities
- Continue the rollout and marketing of the cancer insurance product across sales channels.
- Expand Tsumitasu to younger customers and pursue cross-selling.
- Maintain capital returns while evaluating high-IRR investments.
- Manage FX exposure and capital efficiency through hedging and reinsurance.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$111.54Current
$70Low
$109.14Average
$138High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 25, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2016 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 20, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 10, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Mar 1, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $111.54. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $121.73 | +9.4% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $138 | $124.61 | +23.7% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $124.61 | +4.0% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $108 | $121.99 | -3.2% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $112 | $121.44 | +0.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $121.27 | +11.2% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $130 | $117.86 | +16.6% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $125 | $117.3 | +12.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $104 | $112.88 | -6.8% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $116.21 | -11.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $111.32 | -8.6% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $113.07 | +2.2% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $107 | $113.2 | -4.1% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $110.19 | -9.4% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Wilma Burdis | $119 | $109.96 | +6.7% | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $111.76 | +7.6% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $111 | $114.69 | -0.5% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $108.81 | -6.8% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $110 | $111.9 | -1.4% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $102 | $112.93 | -8.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $113.1 | +12.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $113 | $105.66 | +1.3% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $105 | $102.28 | -5.9% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $98 | $104.36 | -12.1% | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $102 | $114.6 | -8.6% | Dec 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $122 | $112.82 | +9.4% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $90 | $109.69 | -19.3% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $115 | $109.07 | +3.1% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $114 | $103.92 | +2.2% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Wesley Carmichael | $90 | $101.21 | -19.3% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $100 | $100.44 | -10.3% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $108 | $102.36 | -3.2% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $84 | $88.93 | -24.7% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $100 | $89.16 | -10.3% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $95 | $84.36 | -14.8% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $90 | $85.86 | -19.3% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $87 | $83.57 | -22.0% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $69.66 | -37.2% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $73.28 | -30.1% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $70.23 | -35.4% | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $63.99 | -39.9% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $59 | $53.45 | -47.1% | Jul 15, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AFL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAflac Incorporated, operating through its various subsidiary companies, focuses on delivering supplementary health and life insurance policies. The firm's business activities are structured into two primary divisions: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In Japan, the company offers a diverse range of insurance products, including coverage for cancer, medical expenses, income support for nursing care, and the distinct GIFT plan. This segment also provides traditional whole and term life insurance, along with savings-oriented plans like WAYS and child endowment products. Meanwhile, the Aflac U.S.…
Historical context
All AFL earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the AFL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-16T00:02:45.914612+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T22:30:44.042042+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T22:30:44.039272+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.