Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold32 ratings
Bullish928.1%
Neutral1856.3%
Bearish515.6%
Aflac Incorporated · AFL · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Aflac: Japan strength offsets U.S. dental and investment-income risks
The supplied analysis supports a mixed Aflac outlook: Japan earnings strength, high persistency, new products, and strong capital provide support, but U.S. dental weakness, investment-income sensitivity, FX, and commercial-real-estate exposure limit confidence in a uniformly positive trajectory.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$57.38B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.63
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.13B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-3.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.2%
Up to 20 sessions
AFLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AFL FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AFL's -3.9% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in AFL's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AFL after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis places greater emphasis on Japan's contribution and persistency, the U.S. dental and vision recovery challenge, and the potential drag from reinsurance and floating-rate assets. It also identifies the staged Uriso launch and continued platform investment as key execution items.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained, with no change indicated versus the prior analysis.
Key takeaways
- Japan remains the main earnings engine, with more than 70% of pretax earnings and premium persistency above 93% in the supplied analysis.
- U.S. dental and vision remain a headwind after a 33% sales decline, although management expects the platform to stabilize.
- New Japan product launches and distribution expansion are central to the growth plan.
- Strong capital ratios support continued repurchases and dividend growth, while reinsurance and floating-rate assets may temper 2025 investment income.
Management priorities
- Expand Sumitos and launch the Uriso cancer-insurance product in Japan.
- Invest in group benefits, technology integration, and distribution platforms.
- Improve the U.S. dental and vision platform after the system implementation issue.
- Continue share repurchases and dividend increases while managing capital and reinsurance limits.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$114.94Previous close
$70Low
$109.19Average
$138High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 25, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2016 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 20, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 10, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Mar 1, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $114.94. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $112.38 | +8.8% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $121.73 | +6.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $138 | $124.61 | +20.1% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $124.61 | +0.9% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $108 | $121.99 | -6.0% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $112 | $121.44 | -2.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $121.27 | +7.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $130 | $117.86 | +13.1% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $125 | $117.3 | +8.8% | May 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $104 | $112.88 | -9.5% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $116.21 | -13.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $111.32 | -11.3% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $113.07 | -0.8% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $107 | $113.2 | -6.9% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $110.19 | -12.1% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Wilma Burdis | $119 | $109.96 | +3.5% | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $111.76 | +4.4% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $111 | $114.69 | -3.4% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $108.81 | -9.5% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $110 | $111.9 | -4.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $102 | $112.93 | -11.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $113.1 | +8.8% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $113 | $105.66 | -1.7% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $105 | $102.28 | -8.6% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $98 | $104.36 | -14.7% | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $102 | $114.6 | -11.3% | Dec 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $122 | $112.82 | +6.1% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $90 | $109.69 | -21.7% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $115 | $109.07 | +0.1% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $114 | $103.92 | -0.8% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Wesley Carmichael | $90 | $101.21 | -21.7% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $100 | $100.44 | -13.0% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $108 | $102.36 | -6.0% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $84 | $88.93 | -26.9% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $100 | $89.16 | -13.0% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $95 | $84.36 | -17.3% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $90 | $85.86 | -21.7% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $87 | $83.57 | -24.3% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $69.66 | -39.1% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $73.28 | -32.1% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $70.23 | -37.4% | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $63.99 | -41.7% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $59 | $53.45 | -48.7% | Jul 15, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAflac Incorporated, operating through its various subsidiary companies, focuses on delivering supplementary health and life insurance policies. The firm's business activities are structured into two primary divisions: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In Japan, the company offers a diverse range of insurance products, including coverage for cancer, medical expenses, income support for nursing care, and the distinct GIFT plan. This segment also provides traditional whole and term life insurance, along with savings-oriented plans like WAYS and child endowment products. Meanwhile, the Aflac U.S.…
Historical context
All AFL earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-22T00:04:22.296664+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T10:30:44.121976+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T10:30:44.119223+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.