Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold32 ratings
Bullish928.1%
Neutral1856.3%
Bearish515.6%
Aflac Incorporated · AFL · FY2024 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2024
Aflac Q2 2024: Tsumitasu gains and stronger U.S. execution
The quarter supports a constructive but qualified view: management described stronger underwriting and investment performance, early Tsumitasu traction and improved U.S. execution, while maintaining guidance. The key tests are whether product momentum and expense-ratio gains persist and whether real-estate and FX risks remain contained.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$60.42B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.83
Consensus $1.60
EPS surprise
+14.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.14B
Consensus $4.10B
Revenue surprise
+25.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+6.6%
Event window
SPY move
-1.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+8.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.9%
Up to 20 sessions
AFLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AFL FY2024 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AFL rise 6.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q2?What changed in AFL's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for AFL after FY2024 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the focus shifted toward early Tsumitasu traction, improved U.S. sales and persistency, lower expense ratios, a larger share repurchase, and active management of a smaller real-estate watch list.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management expressed confidence in meeting existing guidance.
Key takeaways
- Management said adjusted EPS rose year over year, supported by underwriting and investment performance.
- Tsumitasu showed early success in Japan and was positioned as a cross-sell conduit to third-sector policies.
- U.S. sales grew with improved persistency and expense ratios; management highlighted a 22.7% pre-tax margin.
- Capital management remained active, with a dividend increase and a record share repurchase highlighted.
Management priorities
- Continue rolling out Tsumitasu and cross-selling third-sector policies in Japan.
- Scale dental and vision platforms, including through the PLATS acquisition and SKYGEN partnership.
- Maintain capital discipline while managing distressed real-estate assets and maximizing recoveries.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$120.51Current
$70Low
$109.19Average
$138High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 25, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2016 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 20, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 10, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Mar 1, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $120.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $112.38 | +3.7% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $121.73 | +1.2% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $138 | $124.61 | +14.5% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $124.61 | -3.7% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $108 | $121.99 | -10.4% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $112 | $121.44 | -7.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $121.27 | +2.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $130 | $117.86 | +7.9% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $125 | $117.3 | +3.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $104 | $112.88 | -13.7% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $116.21 | -17.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $111.32 | -15.4% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $113.07 | -5.4% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $107 | $113.2 | -11.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $110.19 | -16.2% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Wilma Burdis | $119 | $109.96 | -1.3% | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $111.76 | -0.4% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $111 | $114.69 | -7.9% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $108.81 | -13.7% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $110 | $111.9 | -8.7% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $102 | $112.93 | -15.4% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $113.1 | +3.7% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $113 | $105.66 | -6.2% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $105 | $102.28 | -12.9% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $98 | $104.36 | -18.7% | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $102 | $114.6 | -15.4% | Dec 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $122 | $112.82 | +1.2% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $90 | $109.69 | -25.3% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $115 | $109.07 | -4.6% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $114 | $103.92 | -5.4% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Wesley Carmichael | $90 | $101.21 | -25.3% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $100 | $100.44 | -17.0% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $108 | $102.36 | -10.4% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $84 | $88.93 | -30.3% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $100 | $89.16 | -17.0% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $95 | $84.36 | -21.2% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $90 | $85.86 | -25.3% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $87 | $83.57 | -27.8% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $69.66 | -41.9% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $73.28 | -35.3% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $70.23 | -40.3% | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $63.99 | -44.4% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $59 | $53.45 | -51.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AFL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAflac Incorporated, operating through its various subsidiary companies, focuses on delivering supplementary health and life insurance policies. The firm's business activities are structured into two primary divisions: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In Japan, the company offers a diverse range of insurance products, including coverage for cancer, medical expenses, income support for nursing care, and the distinct GIFT plan. This segment also provides traditional whole and term life insurance, along with savings-oriented plans like WAYS and child endowment products. Meanwhile, the Aflac U.S.…
Historical context
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Missed on EPS
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- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
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Get the AFL recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-10-17T05:10:49.140638+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-24T22:40:41.401689+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-24T22:40:41.398437+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.