Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish2496.0%
Neutral14.0%
Bearish00.0%
AerCap Holdings N.V. · AER · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
AerCap raises 2026 EPS outlook as lease demand stays strong
AerCap's Q2 points to resilient aircraft-leasing demand and operating momentum, supported by an 85% lease-extension rate, strong operating cash flow and a widebody supply-demand imbalance. The thesis is tempered by questions around unreleased leases, engine-component supply and the execution of new opportunities.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$24.48B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$5.14
Consensus $4.14
EPS surprise
+24.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.17B
Consensus $2.10B
Revenue surprise
+3.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.5%
Event window
SPY move
-1.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.8%
Up to 20 sessions
AERSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AER FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AER fall 3.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in AER's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for AER after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $16.80 per share. The quarter also highlighted $1.5 billion of operating cash flow, $690 million of share repurchases, a 15-aircraft Boeing 787 order and a $1.4 billion asset-sale program with a 20% gain-on-sale margin in Q2.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $16.80 per share from $14.50 previously.
Key takeaways
- An 85% passenger-aircraft lease-extension rate points to sustained customer demand, while 15% of leases are released.
- Widebody supply constraints supported a 15-unit Boeing 787 order, with delivery slots scheduled for 2030–2033.
- Operating cash flow was $1.5 billion; Q2 share repurchases were $690 million and exceeded $1 billion in the first half.
- Leverage remained low at 2.05x, preserving financial flexibility for repurchases, transactions and other capital deployment.
- Management is evaluating aeroderivative turbine conversions for data-center power, but the opportunity remains dependent on suitable partners and execution.
Management priorities
- Continue disciplined capital deployment and share repurchases.
- Maintain low leverage while pursuing opportunistic M&A or large-scale lease transactions.
- Expand the order book with additional Airbus and Boeing narrow-body commitments.
- Pursue aeroderivative turbine projects only with suitable strategic partners.
- Deliver the Boeing 787 order and manage growth around scarce widebody delivery slots.
Follow AER with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$158.52Current
$65Low
$141.23Average
$190High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 22, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 26, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2022 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 25, 2022 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 18, 2022 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 20, 2019 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2019 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2015 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 12, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 13, 2014 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 13, 2014 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2014 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 16, 2013 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 21, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $158.52. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $175 | $158.28 | +10.4% | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $181 | $155.48 | +14.2% | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Arren Cyganovich | $180 | $143.29 | +13.6% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $151 | +4.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $148.63 | +19.9% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Arren Cyganovich | $175 | $149.34 | +10.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $179 | $153.45 | +12.9% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $153.45 | +11.0% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $155 | $140.02 | -2.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $170 | $138.11 | +7.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $138.11 | +1.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $138.11 | +3.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $145.19 | +10.4% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $148.09 | +2.2% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $138.61 | +0.3% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $131.63 | -9.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $120.99 | -16.7% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $115 | $102.34 | -27.5% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O’Brien | $119 | $91.71 | -24.9% | Nov 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $111 | $95.84 | -30.0% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $103 | $91.26 | -35.0% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Stephen Trent | $71 | $64.86 | -55.2% | Jul 31, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $39.3 | -63.4% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $45.87 | -59.0% | May 25, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $47.82 | -55.8% | May 18, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $48.2 | -57.1% | May 18, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AER the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAerCap Holdings N.V., a company founded in 1995 and based in Dublin, Ireland, operates extensively in the global aviation industry. The firm specializes in the acquisition, leasing, funding, sale, and general management of commercial aircraft and engines. Its operations span crucial international markets, including China, Hong Kong, Macau, the United States, and Ireland, alongside its broader global activities. A core component of AerCap's business involves a comprehensive suite of aircraft asset management services. These services range from remarketing aircraft and engines to diligently collecting rental and maintenance fees, overseeing aircraft upkeep, and ensuring strict adherence to contractual terms. They manage the complete asset lifecycle, facilitating equipment handovers (delivery and redelivery), and conducting continuous financial evaluations of lessees.…
Historical context
All AER earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.0% | +0.5% | General Dynamics raises outlook as orders and backlog surge |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.9% | -6.8% | RBC Bearings: Strong Q2, capacity investment supports second half |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -0.3% | CN posts strong Q3, maintains EPS outlook and expands Mexico strategy |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.6% | -8.8% | nVent raises outlook as data-center demand and Maverick broaden growth |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +0.8% | MasTec posts record Q3 as power and data-center demand accelerates |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +18.5% | +0.2% | Ingersoll Rand raises FY2026 outlook as orders accelerate |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the AER recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-29T15:05:53.195291+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-31T18:20:42.271453+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-31T18:20:42.268457+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.