Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1553.6%
Neutral1139.3%
Bearish27.1%
Arch Capital Group Ltd. · ACGLO · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Arch Capital: Strong Underwriting Meets Softer Property Pricing
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: disciplined underwriting, specialty-line demand, mortgage stability, investment income, and capital deployment provide support, while softer property pricing, catastrophe risk, and competition are the main tests.
Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services
$35.82B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.56
Consensus $2.47
EPS surprise
+3.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.05B
Consensus $4.36B
Revenue surprise
-7.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.1%
Up to 20 sessions
ACGLOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ACGLO FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ACGLO fall 0.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in ACGLO's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for ACGLO after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior analysis, Q2 showed continued strong underwriting and larger reported capital actions, including $1.2 billion of share repurchases and $2 billion of debt refinancing. The current analysis also highlighted an 82.5% ex-cat combined ratio, a peak-zone PML of $1.8 billion, and property-rate declines in the mid-teens.
Guidance delta
Maintained; no change was identified in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Q2 operating income was $893 million, with an 82.5% ex-cat combined ratio.
- Insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage underwriting remained profitable despite catastrophe losses.
- Management highlighted $1.2 billion of Q2 share repurchases and $2 billion of debt refinancing.
- Property rates are declining in a competitive market, while casualty competition is increasing.
Management priorities
- Maintain disciplined underwriting in profitable specialty lines.
- Continue capital returns while evaluating special-dividend options.
- Manage catastrophe exposure and monitor peak-zone PML.
- Expand mortgage insurance internationally and assess selective strategic M&A.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 10, 2023 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2023 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 26, 2023 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2023 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 20, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 11, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 10, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 11, 2020 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 11, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2018 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 18, 2018 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2018 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 11, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 14, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2012 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 16, 2012 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 15, 2012 |
Track every rating change on ACGLO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance.…
Historical context
All ACGLO earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.8% | +6.8% | Cboe posts strong Q3 as options growth and new products advance |
| NWG NatWest Group plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | -9.0% | NatWest maintains guidance as Q3 growth and capital remain strong |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +5.3% | Erie pairs resilient demand initiatives with thin underwriting margins |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1189.2% | -10.6% | Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents |
| TPG TPG Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.3% | +7.5% | TPG raises FRE margin outlook as capital formation accelerates |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +2.9% | AJG: Q3 growth and AssuredPartners synergies support outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the ACGLO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-29T19:04:31.868737+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-02T01:23:14.593608+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-31T17:10:41.239831+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.