Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold34 ratings
Bullish1647.1%
Neutral1647.0%
Bearish25.9%
Arch Capital Group Ltd. · ACGL · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Arch Capital Q1 2026: EPS Beats but Revenue Misses; Iran Losses and Non-Renewals Weigh
Arch Capital delivered strong Q1 2026 underwriting results with $901M after-tax operating income, beating EPS estimates by 0.8% despite a 4.5% revenue miss. Management's profitability-over-volume discipline is visible in the decision to non-renew certain program business, creating a roughly $250M net premium headwind for 2026, and in the aggressive $783M share buyback executed during the quarter. The completed AI-driven integration of the Allianz middle-market commercial acquisition positions the platform for scalable growth. However, first-quarter Iran conflict losses estimated at $3B with roughly $2B in related premiums, alongside intensifying property catastrophe competition, temper the near-term outlook. The stock's 4.5% post-earnings decline and subsequent 2.2% drift lower reflect the revenue miss and Iran-related loss uncertainty.
Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services
$36.53B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.50
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.35B
Consensus $4.55B
Revenue surprise
-4.5%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$104.55Previous close
$44Low
$102.09Average
$126High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 10, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 6, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 23, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 11, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 12, 2020 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2018 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 11, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 15, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2012 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $104.55. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Equities | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $99.14 | +20.5% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $102.01 | -2.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $102.01 | -0.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $120 | $102.35 | +14.8% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $94.53 | +0.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $114 | $99.85 | +9.0% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $100 | $100.03 | -4.4% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $102 | $98.61 | -2.4% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $90.94 | +19.6% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $90.77 | -7.2% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $95.16 | -0.5% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $93 | $95.16 | -11.0% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $100 | $94.7 | -4.4% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $95.72 | -9.1% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $93.16 | +5.2% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $91.94 | +3.3% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $98 | $85.45 | -6.3% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $92.25 | -15.8% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $94.1 | -5.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $110 | $95.16 | +5.2% | May 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $108 | $89.67 | +3.3% | May 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $107 | $92.25 | +2.3% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Michael Zaremski | $104 | $95.78 | -0.5% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Michael Ward | $114 | $111.73 | +9.0% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $120 | $113.32 | +14.8% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Michael Zaremski | $98 | $97.68 | -6.3% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $120 | $95.78 | +14.8% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $104 | $98.83 | -0.5% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $110 | $93.54 | +5.2% | May 1, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $107 | $93.54 | +2.3% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Cave Montazeri | $110 | $90.59 | +5.2% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Matthew Carletti | $110 | $91.25 | +5.2% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $58.74 | -35.9% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $57.62 | -46.4% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $47.44 | -50.3% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $42.7 | -50.3% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $45.42 | -52.2% | May 23, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jimmy Bhullar | $44 | $39.95 | -57.9% | Jul 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ACGL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.2%
Up to 20 sessions
ACGLSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 2026 brought three notable developments. First, Arch completed the 18-month AI-driven data and system migration of the Allianz middle-market commercial business, enabling a scalable client platform under Arch paper. Second, the company disclosed first-quarter losses from the Iran conflict estimated at $3B with approximately $2B in related premiums, classified as man-made catastrophe exposure. Third, the board increased the share repurchase authorization to $3B, with $783M of stock repurchased in the quarter. Underwriting income was strong across all three segments: reinsurance delivered $441M at a 76% combined ratio, and mortgage insurance produced $221M despite modest premium growth.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its overall guidance posture, emphasizing profitability discipline over premium volume growth. The non-renewal of certain program business is expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250M in 2026. No explicit upward or downward revision to full-year targets was indicated. The guidance sentiment remained steady as the company continues to deploy capital through buybacks while navigating competitive pressure in property catastrophe lines.
Key takeaways
- Underwriting income remained strong across all three segments, with reinsurance delivering $441M at a 76% combined ratio.
- Non-renewals of certain program business will reduce net premium return by approximately $250M in 2026.
- Mortgage insurance showed resilient underwriting income of $221M despite modest premium growth.
- AI-driven data migration of the Allianz middle-market acquisition was completed, enabling a scalable client platform.
- Share repurchases accelerated to $783M in the quarter, with board authorization increased to $3B.
- Iran conflict losses estimated at $3B with roughly $2B in related premiums, treated as man-made catastrophe exposure.
Management priorities
- Continue AI and technology investments to support underwriting and platform integration.
- Fully integrate the acquired Allianz middle-market commercial business and scale it under Arch paper.
- Pursue selective M&A opportunities that are additive and enhance market presence.
- Develop and potentially expand cyber insurance offerings with enhanced risk modeling.
- Maintain disciplined capital management, including continued share repurchases within the $3B authorization.
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesHIG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026The Hartford Beats on Q2 Core Earnings, Divests Hartford Funds, Expands Buyback to $4.2BAXP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance RaisedHBAN · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Huntington Bancshares Q2 2026: Strong Organic Growth, EPS Miss on Deposit Cost Pressure
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T07:10:59.267699+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T07:10:59.265448+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.