Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold34 ratings
Bullish1647.1%
Neutral1647.0%
Bearish25.9%
Arch Capital Group Ltd. · ACGL · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Arch Capital: Strong underwriting, but growth risks remain
The supplied analysis supports a constructive view of Arch Capital's operating trajectory: strong underwriting, casualty pricing, capital flexibility, and MidCorp expansion are supporting factors, while catastrophe volatility, softer pricing, cedent retention, and mortgage affordability are important tests.
Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services
$32.27B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.77
Consensus $2.26
EPS surprise
+22.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.98B
Consensus $4.52B
Revenue surprise
+10.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+10.5%
Up to 20 sessions
ACGLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ACGL FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ACGL fall 1.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in ACGL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ACGL after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts the focus toward record performance and capital deployment, while highlighting unusually low catastrophe losses, softer market pricing in some lines, and lower ceded premiums as areas to watch.
Guidance delta
No current-quarter guidance was provided in the supplied analysis; guidance direction is therefore not assessed.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes record third-quarter performance, with strength across property and casualty, reinsurance, and mortgage.
- Management emphasized underwriting discipline, capital flexibility, and middle-market expansion through the MidCorp acquisition.
- Casualty rate increases, analytics, and investment income were identified as support for continued performance.
- The main counterweights are softer pricing in some lines, cedent retention, catastrophe exposure, and mortgage affordability pressure.
Management priorities
- Deploy capital toward attractive underwriting opportunities, particularly casualty and middle-market business.
- Continue the share repurchase program while evaluating future dividend policy.
- Expand data-analytics capabilities and monitor catastrophe exposure.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$94.05Current
$44Low
$102.87Average
$126High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 10, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 23, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 11, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 12, 2020 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2018 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 11, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 15, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2012 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $94.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $100 | $97.04 | +6.3% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $101.44 | +17.0% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $99.93 | +27.6% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Atlantic Equities | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $99.14 | +34.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $102.01 | +8.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $102.01 | +10.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $120 | $102.35 | +27.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $94.53 | +11.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $114 | $99.85 | +21.2% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $100 | $100.03 | +6.3% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $102 | $98.61 | +8.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $90.94 | +32.9% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $90.77 | +3.1% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $95.16 | +10.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $93 | $95.16 | -1.1% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $100 | $94.7 | +6.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $95.72 | +1.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $93.16 | +17.0% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $91.94 | +14.8% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $98 | $85.45 | +4.2% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $92.25 | -6.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $94.1 | +5.3% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $110 | $95.16 | +17.0% | May 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $108 | $89.67 | +14.8% | May 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $107 | $92.25 | +13.8% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Michael Zaremski | $104 | $95.78 | +10.6% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Michael Ward | $114 | $111.73 | +21.2% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $120 | $113.32 | +27.6% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Michael Zaremski | $98 | $97.68 | +4.2% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $120 | $95.78 | +27.6% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $104 | $98.83 | +10.6% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $110 | $93.54 | +17.0% | May 1, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $107 | $93.54 | +13.8% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Cave Montazeri | $110 | $90.59 | +17.0% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Matthew Carletti | $110 | $91.25 | +17.0% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $58.74 | -28.8% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $57.62 | -40.5% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $47.44 | -44.7% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $42.7 | -44.7% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $45.42 | -46.8% | May 23, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jimmy Bhullar | $44 | $39.95 | -53.2% | Jul 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ACGL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance.…
Historical context
All ACGL earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the ACGL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T17:36:15.639385+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T17:36:15.636543+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.