Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold34 ratings
Bullish1544.1%
Neutral1750.0%
Bearish25.9%
Arch Capital Group Ltd. · ACGL · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Arch Capital: Growth and capital returns weighed against catastrophe risk
The analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: premium growth, investment income, disciplined underwriting, and selective capital deployment provide support, but catastrophe risk and competitive pressure limit confidence in the durability of margins.
Reported After market closeNASDAQFinancial Services
$34.56B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.90
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $3.95B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.5%
Up to 20 sessions
ACGLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ACGL FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove ACGL's -2.0% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in ACGL's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ACGL after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior quarter, the analysis emphasizes continued growth and capital returns while raising the 2025 catastrophe-load expectation to 7–8% of net earned premium; Midcorp integration remains a central driver.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the analysis cites a 7–8% catastrophe-load target for 2025 and expects attractive margins despite competition.
Key takeaways
- Net premium growth, selective capital deployment, and the Midcorp acquisition were identified as key growth drivers.
- Management highlighted capital returns through a special dividend and share repurchases.
- Catastrophe exposure and competition in casualty, cyber, and public D&O remain the principal offsets.
Management priorities
- Integrate the Midcorp and Entertainment acquisition.
- Deploy capital selectively across profitable insurance, reinsurance, and specialty opportunities.
- Continue dividends and share repurchases while maintaining underwriting discipline.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$101.27Current
$44Low
$102.22Average
$126High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 17, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 10, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 23, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 11, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 12, 2020 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2018 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 11, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 15, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2012 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $101.27. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $100 | $97.16 | -1.3% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $94.82 | +3.7% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $100 | $97.04 | -1.3% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $101.44 | +8.6% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $99.93 | +18.5% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Atlantic Equities | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $99.14 | +24.4% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $102.01 | +0.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $102.01 | +2.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $120 | $102.35 | +18.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $94.53 | +3.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $114 | $99.85 | +12.6% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $100 | $100.03 | -1.3% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $102 | $98.61 | +0.7% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $90.94 | +23.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $90.77 | -4.2% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $95.16 | +2.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $93 | $95.16 | -8.2% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $100 | $94.7 | -1.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $95.72 | -6.2% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $93.16 | +8.6% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $91.94 | +6.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $98 | $85.45 | -3.2% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $92.25 | -13.1% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $94.1 | -2.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $110 | $95.16 | +8.6% | May 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $108 | $89.67 | +6.6% | May 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $107 | $92.25 | +5.7% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Michael Zaremski | $104 | $95.78 | +2.7% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Michael Ward | $114 | $111.73 | +12.6% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $120 | $113.32 | +18.5% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Michael Zaremski | $98 | $97.68 | -3.2% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $120 | $95.78 | +18.5% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $104 | $98.83 | +2.7% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $110 | $93.54 | +8.6% | May 1, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $107 | $93.54 | +5.7% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Cave Montazeri | $110 | $90.59 | +8.6% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Matthew Carletti | $110 | $91.25 | +8.6% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $58.74 | -33.8% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $57.62 | -44.7% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $47.44 | -48.7% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $42.7 | -48.7% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $45.42 | -50.6% | May 23, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jimmy Bhullar | $44 | $39.95 | -56.6% | Jul 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ACGL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance.…
Historical context
All ACGL earningsFinancial Services peers this season
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| RF-PE Regions Financial Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +10.3% | — | Regions Financial: Fee Growth and Credit Quality Support Q3 |
| RF-PC Regions Financial Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +10.3% | — | Regions Financial: Fee growth supports a steady Q3 outlook |
| TFC-PI Truist Financial Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -50.9% | — | Truist sharpens focus as Q3 EPS rises 12% |
| TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +24.2% | +1.5% | Travelers posts strong Q3, with investment income above $900 million |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-27T00:01:34.776509+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-17T11:00:43.064588+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-17T11:00:43.061756+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-17. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.